Friday was saved by Luke Morris’s strength in the saddle on Hoseki who was the yards, and our only winner on the day.
Unfortunately, Princling joins a list of ‘morning glory’s’ having not gone through with his effort at Newmarket. Crown Office was a huge drifter and was never placed a challenge and Muhin ran as expected but bumped into Dark Moon Rising who was 18/1 and bounced back to form after a 17 race losing run to cause a shock at York. It was generally a day that went in favour of the bookies.
Of those we didn’t back, most noteworthy was Pure Majesty who drifted from 7/2 – 14/1. The horse was never given any chance to show her undoubted talent and was looked after at every stage of the race probably due to concerns about the firm ground.
First Instinct, ran very well to be 2nd behind Spirit of Bermuda and she looks ready to win and Another Abbot ran ok having to run without cover.
Onto Saturday – I may be wrong but 16 runners on a single day sent out from Somerville Lodge is probably close to a record for the yard and the midnight candles have been burning in order to give each due consideration for investment purposes.
They are spread across 5 meetings with Tom Marquand riding in the Group 1 July Cup at Newmarket, Cieren Fallon heads to Ascot specifically to ride More Thunder. Jason Hart has landed the big ride on Yabher in the John Smiths Cup at York. Harry Davies is again the choice for the rides at Chester with Darragh Keenan on board the 3 runners at Salisbury.
I will deal with all 16 on a meeting by meeting basis starting with Newmarket.
Newmarket.
14.52 Eilkeem
Eilkeem heads for the Class 2 3yo handicap over 8f. His mark of 87 does not look lenient and the fact that he has already been gelded and was entered in the Tattersalls July Sales suggests that his scope for improvement may be limited.
The Britannia Stakes winner Moonfall still looks feasible rated off 97 just 7lbs higher than for his Ascot victory which he visually and on the clock looked to win with ease.
Nothing in the form of Eilkeem has suggested he is capable of that level of performance and even in receipt of 10lb from George Bougheys 3yo this looks a tough start to his handicap career.
No Bet Recommended.
16.35 Almeraq & Division
Although Starman won this race from a low draw, in recent times high draws have been advantageous – Division, yet another Haggas trained big race Newmarket contender to draw the coffin box in stall 1 and Almeraq in stall 4.
On the other hand on Thursday the low numbers have been favoured, but less so on Friday. Overall it is a race that is too close to call
No Bet Recommended.
York
14.39 First Principle
First Principle is one of the group of Haggas trained 4yo horses that were kept in training with a view to winning Class 2 handicaps over distances around a mile. All have disappointed and although the 13 runner field features a host of runners also mostly on a downward spiral – there has been nothing in his last three outings to suggest First Principle is in sufficiently good enough form to win this 45,000 handicap.
No Bet Recommended
15.45 Yabher
Here is what we said about Yabher earlier this week.
Haggas entered 5 horses this year – Crown of Oaks, Yabher, Eternal Force, Alobayyah, and Scoville. Although the Ascot winner Alobayyah is among the Ante-Post market leaders by far the most likely winner from Somerville Lodge looks to be the (102) rated Yabher.
He is the only one of the 5 that is proven to stay the trip and will relish the likely fast ground . The form of his 12f win at Newmarket last Autumn could not have worked out any better.
The John Smiths Cup has been won in recent times by 3 horses rated over 100. Anmaat (103) in 2023 Educate (108) in 2016 and Farraaj (111) in 2014.
One further edge can be taken from the fact that Yabher was entered in the Group 2 Princess of Wales stakes at Newmarket on Thursday but has not been declared. He is in the same ownership as Extremely Zain and his racing manager said, when asked whether that 3 yo would take up a Group 1 entry ‘ I am not certain-but the owner likes his horses to run in Group company as soon as possible. That augurs well for Yabher in this Class 2 handicap.‘
The form of the yard is no longer a concern and with a middle draw in stall 13 he is our first bet of the day. He is currently 2nd favourite behind the Gosden trained Warrant Holder. Hopefully that will stay that way on the off given the poor record of market leaders in the race.
1.5 pt ew Yabher 1-6 places 5/1 Sky Bet and Paddy Power ( 5/1 -1-5 places with other firms.
16.55 Arabian Force
Arabian Force has become a nearly horse who probably should have a Glasgow Stakes and a Great Voltigeur win to his name. In this 6 runner Group 3 contest over 14f his 3 main rivals all carry the same ‘nearly horse’ label.
The manner of his one paced defeat on his last outing over 12f behind Kalpana strongly suggested that the step up in trip to 14f will bring out the improvement to capture a Group race. There is a big question mark over the pace this race will be ran at and it maybe Jason Hart will make the running.
He isn’t a big price and there are too many doubts about the 4yo – a bet is too risky.
No Bet Recommended
Ascot
14.27 More Thunder
More Thunder is yet another Somerville Lodge top class horse drawn in Stall 1. That is going to allow Cieren Fallon to get a good tow into the contest with Naqueeb certain to make the running. However Ryan Sexton could be allowed an easy lead and slow the pace down entering the Ascot straight this can cause big problems for horses stuck on the rails on the round course at Ascot
Overall More Thunder is a high quality horse that attracts bad luck in one form or another, at odds of 6/4 he is too risky. Although, he is strongly fancied.
No Bet Recommended
15.02 National Pride
By a sprinter out of a staying dam , it is difficult to weigh up the suitability of this debut race a Class 2 contest over 7f. The impressive Leicester winner Dr Rascal and the promising Andrew Balding trained Rising Tiger look difficult opponents with the benefit of racecourse experience. A watching brief is advised.
No Bet Recommended
15.34 Divine Knight
The gamble we took part in on Divine Knight at Ayr 6/1-9/4 in a Class 2 handicap only paid out on the place money. However he looked a horse to follow, along the lines of the 2025 three times winner for the yard Sam Hawkens. He follows a very similar pathway dropping from Class 2 to Class 3 and a field of just 6 in the 14f handicap at 15.34 looks ideal for the 5yo to record his first win for Somerville Lodge. A slight worry about the fast ground is the reason only a 1pt win bet is recommended.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Divine Knight 15.34 Ascot
16.45 Thaluna
I was impressed with Thaluna on both her two starts this season. on both occasions staying on very well having been held up off a steady early pace. This is a competitive race with three or four of the 10 runner field holding strong claims. The race will be ran at a good gallop and I think the key principles will get racing from a fair way out. I expect Fallon to hold up Thaluna and deliver her with a run down the outside to pick off the leaders inside the final furlong.
Haggas dominated the Kensington Palace fillies mile at the Royal meeting and I expect another of his fillies to pick up this valuable prize
Recommended Bet 0.5pt ew Thaluna 16.45 Ascot
Chester
13.35 Venetian Sky
I am slightly surprised that Venetian Sky is kept to maiden company as her mark of 74 looked one that she could win a handicap from. Her run at Doncaster was by far her best and I thought she ran as though a lot of improvement would follow. The form of the race looks strong with Raneem the winner running very well against the useful Starlight Lass on her next outing.
However, she is set to take on Dream Vega who finished over a length ahead of her at Doncaster and has a far better draw in stall 2 with Venetian Sky in 7.
On a day with many opportunities I am going to wait until she runs in a handicap before investing.
No Bet Recommended.
15.52 Tiber Flow
At his best Tiber Flow would be far to good for Listed company as a proven Group 2 performer. Unfortunately he has been dogged by set backs and has only ran once in over two years. That gave plenty of encouragement that he retains all his ability and well drawn in Stall 2 in this listed contest over 7f there is a chance that he could make a winning comeback. However, it looks like this has been the target for Witness Stand who from stall 6 along with Five Ways in stall 5 could get the run of the race. I think there are bigger targets in mind for Tiber Flow and expect him to come on for the race.
No Bet Recommended.
16.24 Art Lover
Was very disappointing on his final two starts as a 2yo. He has been gelded and slow to come to hand this season but remains a horse with potential this season from a mark of 85.
I am happy to take the view that he will be better for the race and hope to see him run well before backing him later in the season.
No Bet Recommended
Salisbury
18.08 Vanilla Skies
Was a surprise winner on debut fitted with blinkers which are retained as she attempts to give a penalty away in her bid to remain unbeaten. I am always suspicious of Somerville Lodge horses that win minor Novice stakes races on debut. It is the case more often than not that the races turn out to represent weak form. She will be a short price and it is easy to let her run without a bet.
No Bet Recommended
18.40 Silver Lake
Based on her value through her breeding getting a win for Silver Lake is an absolute priority. It is therefore significant that on her 4th run she is pitched into an all age handicap from her opening mark of 75.
This looks a very competitive Class 4 handicap with two other improving 3yo fillies from big yards in the line up. However, she is rated a lot better than a 75 rated filly and was backed on her last outing as though defeat was out of the occasion but it turned out she was up against Seet now rated 95. Nothing went right for her that afternoon at Wolverhampton and I don’t want her to let her run unbacked on her handicap debut., she is worth a small interest.
Recommended Bet 0.5pt win Silver Lake
19.10 Evening Fades
Evening Fades has been very disappointing in her 3 runs hence her handicap mark of just 63. She bumps into an improving filly Shirakawa who is up 6lb for her impressive Chepstow win. Evening Fades has simply not shown sufficient promise to be considered as a betting opportunity.
No Bet Recommended
Saturday Summary
I have assessed the 18 runners on the basis that each was the only runner on any single day of racing. I have narrowed it down to just 4 bets. Of the others I do expect More Thunder to win at Ascot but given the pace set up of the race and his draw in Stall 1 there is too much jeopardy at his price of 6/4.
1pt win Divine Knight 15.34 Ascot
1.5pt ew Yabher 1-6 places 15.45 York
0.5pt ew Thaluna 1-4 places 16.45 Ascot
0.5pt win Silver Lake 18.40 Salisbury
Yabher best bet on Super Saturday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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