A painful week that will rank among the worst experienced by the yard in recent memory. Since Wednesday there were 37 runners that yielded only 2 winners, we largely dodged the bullets as we managed to find both winners Hoseki on Friday and Silver Force on Saturday from 8 selections over the 72 hour period. Although we lost over the three days it could have been far worst.
The withdrawal of Tenability on Thursday who was found to be coughing was perhaps a warning sign and the highly regarded trio Almeraq, Yabher and Princling and the well fancied Thaluna her chances highlighted by Haggas himself on ITV Racing, all ran inexplicably badly
Almeraq, as I had suggested was all at sea on the very fast ground and his success under similar conditions at Royal Ascot remains incredulous.
Of the four bets on Saturday Yabher and Thaluna followed the pattern of a majority of the runners from the yard in not being able to quicken as the pace increased. Divine Knight possibly went too fast from the front but the quick ground was probably the reason for his one paced finish although the winner Galilean Quality looks a 3yo stayer going places. I am still confident Divine Knight is a horse to follow.
Finally Silver Lake repaired some of the damage backed from 10/3 to 5/2 she won in the style of a well handicapped filly and like Hoseki is one to follow.
Generally, given the Somerville Lodge current strike rate, hovering around 10% when you would expect it to be 25% or higher at this time of year we now have no option but to return to a cautious approach and be highly selective with our betting strategy.
The big drift on a number of horses that would have been expected to be well supported together with disappointing runs from those that were, is confirmation that doubts continue about the yards form.
We had spotted the signs after Royal Ascot and it can be argued that we should have extended our no bet policy from last week into the weekend. The sheer volume of runners sent to post made it very difficult to justify that position.
On a positive note there were several horses that ran really well that I want to back on their next outing. I have detailed each with a summary of their ideal conditions.
Venetian Sky 7f Maiden Chester 1.35 Saturday – Official Rating 74
I was surprised that the 3yo filly was entered in another maiden stakes race after running with so much promise at Doncaster when she already had a mark of 74. Which I felt she was more than capable of winning from.
Her run on Saturday did nothing to change that opinion and because she was well beaten in 5th the handicapper may choose to drop her a couple of pounds. As with several others this week she was badly drawn and then met trouble in running on several occasions, finishing with running left. The trip of 7f is ok but I suspect the target maybe a 1m 0-75 handicap on the AW with a lot of her close relatives having shown winning form on artificial surfaces.
The other Chester runners on Saturday Tiber Flow and Art Lover also ran really well without any luck in running and look potential betting opportunities on their next outings.
Crown Office 8f Class3 handicap Ascot Friday.Official Rating 82
When a Haggas trained horse drifts markedly in the betting without any obvious reason, it is always worth noting. Crown Office drifted from 4/1 to 12/1 probably due to doubts about the trip and the ground. My opinion after Friday was that he takes after his dam Antonia De Vega and will be best at 8f rather than 7F and probably on genuinely good ground.
The key objective of his Ascot seemed be to get him settled in midfield which was successfully achieved but then the 3yo was not asked to track the eventual 1 and 2 as they moved through to challenge.
He finished 6th beaten 6L without having had a hard race. He may get dropped a couple of pounds and I suspect will be placed in a 0-80 handicap on a flat track at someway like Thirsk or Windsor
More Thunder 8f Ascot Group 2 Saturday Official Rating
What happened to More Thunder at Ascot on Saturday was as we predicted and the reason why we recommended not to back him. However this should have no bearing on his next outing in the Prix Jacques Le Marios at Deauville in August, accept for the fact we will get a bigger price.
If there is pace in the race and he is reasonable well drawn, with a high quality field likely to line up, I think he will be an each way price and a good bet in a race that Haggas has stated will be his main target for the rest of the season.
First Instinct 6f York Group 3 Friday
This ultra tough mare bounced back to form upped to 6f at York on Friday only finding the Group 1 mare Spirit of Bermuda too good. She looks more than capable of winning another Group 3 over 5f or 6f on Good or Good to Soft ground.
I will continue to update on all the Somerville Lodge runners starting on Monday. Although the real interest next week will centre on Maltese Cross in the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp on Tuesday where he takes on 6 rivals including Causeway, Limestone and the unexposed Francois Henri Grafford trained Varandir.
REFA Hag Tag 2026
Maltese Cross heads to Paris Longchamp on Tuesday evening.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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