Maltese Cross in Grand de Paris Group 1 Challenge.

Maltese Cross in Grand Prix de Paris Group 1 Challenge

One of the core principles of the William Haggas training methodology is that, where possible, he prefers not to run his horses on what he considers unsuitable going. Occasionally, when they do run and are subjected to a hard race, it can set them back—as was possibly the case with Almeraq on Saturday. Always thought to need cut in the ground, he was asked to race on fast ground for a second consecutive time. After coping with those conditions at Ascot, he couldn’t replicate the effort next time out at Newmarket.

There is a reverse situation in Paris on Tuesday with Maltese Cross, who was considered to be best on fast ground before Epsom, but ran a great race on a soft-ground Derby to be beaten only by Christmas Day. However, while he will get the fast ground he needs in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris, the question is: has the Derby left its mark? Furthermore, after the weekend, is the stable in general underperforming?

Maltese Cross has been installed as the joint market leader at 3/1. The Aidan O’Brien-trained Causeway is 7/2, and the Graffard runner, Varandir, is next best at 5/1 in the 7-runner lineup. O’Brien has a terrific record in the race, winning it three times in the past 10 years and sending out the runner-up on four other occasions.

The 12f contest provides another chance to weigh up the value of the current crop of three-year-olds over 10f plus, albeit with Constitution River clearly the cream of the crop by some way.

The form of those that headed the field in the soft-ground Epsom Derby has generally not worked out well, although this is more than likely due to subsequent races being run on fast ground. Christmas Day was easily beaten by Benvenuto Cellini in the Irish Derby, with fellow Derby runner Pierre Bonnard improving to finish third. James J Braddock, third at Epsom, took a big step backward in the same race.

Bay of Brilliance, fourth at Epsom, ran no sort of race in the German Derby, and Alderman, fifth at Epsom, was poor on fast ground at Newmarket. Conversely, Ancient Cross, seventh at Epsom and also running on Tuesday, ran a blinder at Royal Ascot on fast ground, beaten just a head by Causeway.

That was the first time Causeway was stepped up to 12f, and he had to stay every yard of the trip to win. A literal interpretation of that form suggests that Maltese Cross has the beating of Causeway, but there is zero reason to compare the two races. The overall interpretation of the Epsom Derby form is that had it been run on good or faster ground, we would have seen a very different result.

That brings us to the question: how much will Maltese Cross improve on the faster ground forecast at Longchamp?

The presence of Ancient Cross will ensure there is an end-to-end gallop, and the conditions of the race will be ideal for Maltese Cross. I think he will improve by 5 or 6lb on faster ground, which, if he is spot on for this race, will make him very hard to beat.

However, my interpretation of the reason for him running is that its timing fits in with his main overall target, which is the St Leger. Setting aside the overall form of the yard and his hard race at Epsom, I don’t think he will be absolutely spot on for this race. It is a similar scenario to More Thunder on Saturday where, although clearly out to win, the race was more about getting the horse 100% ready for the Prix Jacques Le Marois, his main target in August.

Varandir will need to show a great deal of improvement, and this leaves the way clear for Causeway to collect another Grand Prix de Paris for Ballydoyle and Coolmore. All year, this horse has been spoken about as a potential Group 1 winner. His toughness, stamina, and ability to do just enough hide his true class. He fits the mould of many Ballydoyle Group winners that just keep on improving with racing, and he can claim his first Group 1 success.

HAG TAG recommendation: NO BET

Maltese Cross bids for Group 1 success in Paris on Tuesday.