Nine horses from Somerville Lodge set to win Group Races this season
The thrilling victory of Maltese Cross in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris on Tuesday evening typified the story of the 2026 campaign for Somerville Lodge. The yard is on track to record possibly its highest number of Group race successes in a season, while at the same time trending toward one of its lowest overall strike rates this century.
From a betting angle, we have avoided the losses that normally occur with poor strike rates by spotting the patterns in advance. My view is that our volume of bets in Class 2 and lower races will continue to be minimal, offset by an increase in Listed and Group 1, 2, and 3 betting opportunities.
This season has already shown a sharp rise in victories at the highest level, with 13 Group and Listed race wins already recorded. While it will be tough to surpass the 2022 tally of 28 wins at a 26% strike rate, a number in the mid-20s looks highly achievable. With the Irish Oaks weekend and Goodwood on the horizon, hitting 20 Group wins before York looks like a realistic target.
At the top of the shortlist are Lake Forest and More Thunder.
More Thunder seems to be cursed at Ascot. His fourth-place finish on Saturday added to his previous disappointments in the Wokingham and the Queen Anne. The pace of the Summer Mile was slow, leaving him with an impossible task to claw back the deficit once Zeus Olympios kicked clear. Yet, his final two furlongs were as quick as anything seen at Ascot (by any horse) in recent years—even faster than his Wokingham effort. He heads next for the Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville in August, where he is fully expected to put right the wrongs of his current campaign.
The same can be said of Lake Forest, who really should have won the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Ascot. He will now head for the Group 2 Lennox Stakes, followed by the Group 1 City of York. It cannot be forgotten how much the yard believes the gelding operation has improved the five-year-old. As long as he gets fast ground, he will be widely expected to win both prizes.
Maltese Cross will also be expected to bag another Group 1 by collecting the St Leger. As he looks sure to stay in training as a four-year-old, it makes sense to stick to the plan of targetting the Doncaster classic—a race tailor-made for his running style. Fast ground will make him incredibly hard to beat, no matter what Ballydoyle throws at the race.
Royal Ascot winner Alobayyah is expected to take the step up from handicap company to Group level in her stride. She holds an entry in the Group 1 Matron Stakes, and although beating the likes of Blue Bolt and Diamond Necklace at the top level is a tall order, she is more than capable of picking up a Group 2 or 3 prize before taking her chance at the highest tier. There are plenty of opportunities at up to ten furlongs before September, and she will be strongly fancied to maintain her progress and fulfill the high expectations placed on her before her truncated three-year-old campaign. Black type is the priority; however, if connections do opt for Class 2 handicap company, she will attract a massive wave of market support.
Another Royal Ascot winner, Opportunity, should also handle the step up to Group company. From a timing perspective, his Ascot win was one of the most impressive of the entire meeting. Although runner-up Warrant Holder let the form down in the John Smith’s Cup—giving the race a weaker look in hindsight—the way Opportunity defied a nightmare draw in stall 1 left a lasting impression that he is a horse far better than a Class 2 handicapper.
He remains near the head of the market for the Ebor after Klassleader’s disappointing showing at Newmarket. However, I suspect Klassleader remains the stable’s primary hope for the big York handicap, meaning Opportunity may instead be aimed at a Group 3 contest, possibly in France, to continue his rise.
Tiber Flow was reported to be “pretty straight” ahead of his seasonal debut at Chester last Saturday, which was his first outing in over a year and only his second race in nearly two years. Although understandably a little fresh through the early stages, he ran remarkably well without any luck in running, proving he retains the vast majority of his ability. At his best, he won the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes off a rating of 110. While that peak level might now be behind him, a Group 3 over seven furlongs on fast ground looks well within his reach. He is a tough individual who gives 100% every time he lines up.
Three horses are entered this Saturday, offering the next opportunity to add to the Somerville Lodge Group-race prize fund for 2026.
Binhareer was disappointing in the Wokingham, though largely through no fault of his own, and the four-year-old remains fully expected to progress into a Group winner. Much like More Thunder, Ascot has not been kind to this son of Dark Angel. He was stopped in his tracks just as Completely Random made his move to reel in Double Rush (the Harry Charlton-trained gelding failing by only a head to win, with Binhareer three lengths back in sixth).
Sectional times suggest Binhareer lost between two and three lengths when forced to check; without that, it would have been incredibly close. I suspect on fast ground he may still have just failed to win, but if he gets his chance on good or softer ground, I expect him to improve another 4lb. Group 2 and 3 sprints are well within his compass. He is entered in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury on Saturday, though rain will likely be required for him to take his chance.
If Alobayyah has the potential to progress to Group level, the same applies to Rhapsody. She was giving 2lb to her stablemate at Ascot and was beaten just over two lengths after meeting severe trouble in running. She came to hand in the second half of last season, winning a York handicap before securing black type when finishing third in a Listed contest in Italy. She can build on that profile. Targeting Listed or Group 3 company over ten furlongs should see her secure a valuable Group win to seal her future in the paddocks. She holds a Saturday entry in a Group 3 at the Curragh, and while the entry list features three Irish fillies rated 100+, the conditions will be spot on and she will be fancied to run a big race at an appealing price.
Next to take a shot at Group 1 glory is Earth Shot, who heads to the Curragh on Saturday aiming to deliver Somerville Lodge a second Irish Oaks triumph. This would replicate the success of Sea of Class in 2018, who was then desperately unlucky not to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe later that autumn. If Earth Shot wins on Saturday, her connections will surely look toward Paris on the first Sunday in October, though she will need to show significant progress to match the caliber of Sea of Class, who was only narrowly denied by the brilliant Enable at Longchamp.
The similarities between Earth Shot and Sea of Class are striking. James Doyle rides both, and Earth Shot is rated just 2lb higher (109) than Sea of Class was (107) heading to the Curragh. Sea of Class defeated three Aidan O’Brien runners and one from Joseph O’Brien—a dynamic likely to be replicated on Saturday, with Joseph fielding English Oaks heroine Thundering On and Aidan sending a strong squad spearheaded by Amelia Earhart.
The form of the soft-ground Epsom Oaks has not traveled well to faster surfaces. Consequently, Earth Shot’s Ribblesdale win at Ascot—achieved despite trouble in running—has formed the bedrock of the early market, making her the deserved 5/2 favorite.
The strongest piece of three-year-old filly form this season belongs to Diamond Necklace, who took the French Oaks ahead of Saturday’s rival, Inis Mor. David Menuisier’s filly had previously defeated Earth Shot at Goodwood, but that was a slowly run affair where Earth Shot didn’t get the rub of the green—Tom Marquand admitted afterward he should have won.
We have followed Earth Shot all season, largely based on her home work with stablemate My Ophelia—a filly widely regarded as the best in the yard, but one who won’t be seen until autumn after a series of minor setbacks. Maltese Cross provided Haggas with a tenth Group 1 success in France on Tuesday, and I expect Earth Shot to deliver a sixth Irish equivalent on Saturday.
Bet details to follow for Binhareer, Earth Shot, and Rhapsody once final declarations and the draw are confirmed.
Haggas Group Contenders in Order of Preference
- Lake Forest
- More Thunder
- Maltese Cross
- Earth Shot
- Alobayyah
- Opportunity
- Binhareer
- Rhapsody
- Tiber Flow
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