Looking back at the disappointments of last weekend—where the 25 runners from Somerville Lodge managed just a couple of wins—the question of the yard’s general well-being is understandably brought into the equation when considering backing their runners this weekend.
However, a deep delve into the performances suggests that the primary issue was not illness or form, but rather the fast ground; five well-fancied horses simply refused to let themselves down and stride out when asked to accelerate on the quick turf.
Review – Last Weekend’s 25 Runners
To understand where the yard truly stands, we have to look past the bare results and break down how those 25 horses actually performed:
Ran to Form (8):
Hoseki, Silver Lake, First Instinct, Kahin, Vanilla Skies, Arabian Force, and Art Lover(yielding two 1sts, four 2nds, and one 3rd), plus Kinswomen, who finished unplaced at 33/1.
Novices Learning the Ropes (3): Pure Majesty, Brighton Beach, and National Pride all gained valuable racecourse experience.
Unlucky in Running (5): These met trouble, were poorly positioned in slowly run races, or suffered tactical disadvantages: Venetian Sky, Infraad, Tiber Flow, More Thunder, and Division (awkward break).
Underperformed on Fast Ground (5): Princling, Crown Office, Almeraq, Yabher, and Divine Knight all struggled to let themselves down on the firm surface.
Unreliable Types (3): First Principle, Evening Fades, and Another Abbot are simply quirky, unreliable characters who have become highly risky betting prospects on any surface.
Midweek Recap
We have seen only three runners from the yard so far this week:
Adola (40/1) was unplaced. Bintsaleh (5/2) also disappointed but was subsequently found to have bled during the race. Maltese Cross provided the obvious highlight, securing a brilliant Group 1 victory in Paris.
Saturday Preview: Steering Clear of Fast-Ground Risks
Having already ruled out the yard’s Friday runners as “No Bet” opportunities, the key to Saturday’s strategy is to avoid horses near the head of the market who carry major question marks on fast ground. Unfortunately, this includes Newbury runners Binhareer and Manaar, as well as Irish Oaks favorite Earth Shot.
Significantly, two of the yard’s four highly rated entries at Newbury—Crown of Oaks and Albaydaa—have already been withdrawn due to conditions.
Newbury
Binhareer 15.02 Newbury 6f Group 3. The Haggas team has noted on numerous occasions that while Binhareer acts on fast ground, he is at his peak with some ease in the ground. He possibly needs to produce a career-best performance on his first step up to Group company, it is common sense to avoid backing him in the hope that he simply “gets away with it.” Furthermore, he is the lowest-rated runner in the lineup, yet he has been backed from 4/1 into 11/4 and is the early market leader.
Binhareer is a sprinter that needs a strongly ran race to be at his best and as there are no obvious pacesetters it all adds up to a clear case of poor value and I cannot recommend a wager.
Manaar 16.12 10f Fillies’ Novice. Part of the reason Manaar (a half-sister to Dubai Honour) was allowed to go off at 8/1 when defeating the re-opposing Miss Scott on debut was concern over her handling fast ground. While it proved manageable that day, you only have to look back to Almeraq last Saturday to see how a horse can handle a quick surface once, only to refuse to let themselves down the next time. With Miss Scott meeting her 7lb better off on Saturday, this is a tight call. Both look like Group fillies in the making, but it is strictly a race to watch rather than bet.
The Curragh
William Haggas has sent only one horse to the Curragh’s Irish Oaks fixture in the past: the brilliant Sea of Class in 2018, who took the Group 1 prize before narrowly missing out to Enable in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Earth Shot – Group 1 Irish Oaks. The Wathnan Racing owned filly attempts to emulate her former stablemate and give he owners a first classic win. She is near the head of the market based on her Ribblesdale Stakes form, which looks the best on offer. However, Haggas reiterated this week that Earth Shot is better with cut in the ground. While her erratic path into the Ascot home straight was blamed on a loose horse, a strong argument can be made that she was feeling the firm conditions, only fully extending to win once she hit the rising ground. I had anticipated backing Earth Shot in the expectation that the ground at the Curragh would be slower than Ascot – but Dublin has had zero rain and at 3/1, the risk that she will not act on firm ground after Ascot is just too great.
Rhapsody 2.15 Curragh – Group 3 Meadow Court Stakes Unlike her stablemate, fast ground is of no concern to Rhapsody, who joins Earth Shot in Ireland under Ryan Moore. The value of Black Type to Somerville Lodge’s owner-breeders cannot be underestimated; it dictates much of Haggas’s placing methodology. It explains why Rhapsody, rated 92, is stepped up to Group 3 level as the lowest-ranked horse in an eight-runner field. A win or place finish here would blow her handicap mark, but that is secondary to her ultimate breeding value. While these fillies’ and mares’ contests ensure everyone is trying, they frequently throw up strange results.Introduced into the market at 11/1 hopefully, she can sneak into the frame, but quite literally, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Newmarket
Orionis is another filly chasing crucial Black Type. She was expected to handle the step up to Listed level at Pontefract last time out but was well-beaten as the heavily backed 2/1 favorite. The track’s unique configuration can be tricky; after being asked to make all the running at a sharp early pace, she failed to stay.
Cieren Fallon is expected to ride her with more restraint on Saturday. This race has an almost an identical setup to Pontefract, featuring the likely market leader Revoir, who finished five lengths clear of her last time and meets her on the same terms. However, Orionis was allowed to come home in her own time over the final half-furlong, and since Revoir has earned a reputation as a perpetual bridesmaid, there are grounds to believe the form can be reversed.
The fast ground is fine, and her seasonal debut win at Goodwood suggested Listed class is well within reach—indeed, it is the sole reason she remains in training. However, Charlie Appleby’s fields two runners the highly regarded Tribal Queen and Fashions Fancy have both been declared. Godolphin specifically targets 12f listed races on the July course .
Since 2021 they have this attempted to win 8 races over the course and distance. They have Won 6 and been runner up in the other two races. On three occasions they have fielded 2 runners in the same race. They finished 1st and 2nd- 1st and 3rd also 1st and 6th (the 6th place horse was unconsidered at 25/1)
Verdict: No Bet Recommended.
Nottingham and Doncaster
Fast Performer (6.30 Nottingham) Fast Performer will be the first 2yo debutant to run at Nottingham in July this century. Overall, the stable’s record with unraced juveniles at the track is a modest 1-from-8 (the sole winner being the useful First Instinct at 4/1 in August 2024). This Showcasing filly is bred for speed and should relish the quick ground. With only five runners and very little opposition form, she may well go off favorite. However, the yard’s overall record with debutants means they rarely merit backing first time out at short prices.
Regalism (6.15 Doncaster) Regalism is out of a dam who has produced winners from 6f to 2m, though his full-brother Elvetham took 15 starts to break his maiden status before winning minor races over 6f. While Somerville Lodge has produced smart debut winners at Doncaster in September and October (such as Yabher and Lilt), there is nothing to suggest Regalism is a highly precocious type.
Verdict: No Bet Recommended on either debutant.
Summary
Weekend Stable Outlook: Less Risks on Fast Ground
With just 12 runners declared this weekend compared to last week’s 25, it’s a much quieter period for the yard. Crucially, the prevailing fast ground has stripped the cards of any genuine betting value.
While class alone might see at least one of Earth Shot, Manaar, Binhareer, or Orionis get their head in front, their projected prices (all 3/1 or shorter) offer absolutely no margin for error. Last weekend, we got away with only minor losses because we managed to find both winners, but we took unnecessary risks on horses knowing possible going concerns.
Replicating that high-variance approach under the exact same conditions this Saturday makes no sense. The right move is to sit on our hands, protect the bankroll, and gather data.
With these quick conditions forecast to persist throughout July, the tide will turn. We have several fast-ground specialists with major upcoming entries who will absolutely relish fast ground over the next fortnight. Keep your powder dry until they get their target conditions.
There are no Somerville Lodge horses declared on Sunday
Earth Shot attempts to give Somerville Lodge a 3rd Group 1 in 2026 and Wathnan Racing their first Classic success.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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