In the last two seasons, William Haggas’s Somerville Lodge yard has sent 30 two-year-old runners to contest races at Newbury between July and October.
Looking closely at the timing of these entries reveals a stark contrast in performance and subsequent progression:
- July & August: Just 10 runners. Two ran in July and eight in August. These yielded two debut winners (both in August). However, the other eight runners subsequently won just four races between them in total.
- September & October: The 20 runners in this latter period also resulted in only two winners (My Ophelia and Needle Match). Crucially, the progression and future form of this autumn group was vastly superior.
Given this relatively modest strike rate, it is surprising that 50% of Haggas-trained 2yos running at the track are sent off in the top three of the betting market.
Backing all of these market leaders would have yielded a Level Stakes loss of 6.25 points. While this group included three winners, only one other horse managed to finish in the first three.
Of the remaining 15 runners (those outside the top three in the market), the 14/1 victory of Jewelry—largely down to a low-quality race—meant a break-even position. However, looking at the place market, seven of those 15 hit the frame, which would have returned an each-way profit of 6.23 points.
A Tale of Two Winners: Jewelry vs. Sky Majesty
Analyzing the individual performances of the yard’s summer winners highlights the difference in quality they can produce.
Jewelry (14/1)
In August 2024, Jewelry won a 6f Novice Stakes despite being largely unfancied. As is sometimes the case with debut winners from the yard, this success was primarily down to the race proving to be a weak heat for Newbury.
Since that contest, the 13 runners behind her have won only eight races in total, with none winning from an official rating higher than 80. Jewelry never won again, though her breeding value was secured by that initial success. Out of the Galileo mare Simply A Star (by Giant’s Causeway), her full sister Feel Happy has shown very little in two starts for Donnacha O’Brien.
Sky Majesty (11/4)
In contrast, the other August 2yo winner, Sky Majesty, was sent off as the 11/4 second-favorite. She went on to go unbeaten as a two-year-old, progressing to win at Group 2 and Group 3 level.
The depth of her debut race was also far superior: the nine runners behind her subsequently achieved five wins. Sky Majesty is out of Majestic Alexandra, a mare with an excellent track record of producing high-class 2yos. Though she was disappointing on her debut at Newmarket last week, it will be fascinating to see how her half-sister, Pure Majesty, progresses through the remainder of the season.
The eight other 2yos that ran at the track before September have generally struggled:
- Sing the Blues managed a win at Goodwood and was handed a rating of 80, but has not run since and has joined Martin Dunne.
- Caraway won a Class 6 race off a mark of just 58.
- Of the remaining six, five have failed to win. The sole exception was Concert, who won a Wolverhampton maiden but failed to improve, subsequently joining Jack Channon where they remain winless and highly disappointing.
2yo’s starting in Autumn
By contrast, the September and October cohorts included many individuals that progressed into high-quality three-year-olds. Notable names like Earth Shot, My Ophelia, Power Fizz, Almeraq, Maelstrom, The Kings Falcon, Yaroogh, King of Earth, Supermodel, Needle Match, and Masked Warrior all went on to compete off marks in the 80s or considerably higher.
Friday’s Newbury Prospects
The first test of the yard’s current crop of 2yos takes place this Friday, with Somerville Lodge sending out a pair of unraced prospects.
15:00 Newbury – Quite Cheeky (7f Class 3 Novice Stakes)
First up is the Teofilo colt Quite Cheeky in a competitive 15-runner field.
Quite Cheeky possesses the typical profile of a Haggas 2yo that will improve significantly for the experience. His dam, Nominee, has produced offspring that generally require 12f+ and soft ground or all-weather surfaces. Despite this being a Class 3 novice, the race looks more about quantity than quality. Even so, I expect Quite Cheeky to be sent off at double-figure odds.
15:35 Newbury – Next of Kin (6f Class 4 Maiden Fillies’ Stakes)
This Kingman filly, out of the No Nay Never mare Thank You Next, represents a different profile.
Homebred by the Dunchurch Lodge Stud, her dam was a precocious 2yo who ran seven times, recording two victories and signing off her juvenile campaign as the runner-up in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes with a rating of 99.
Her 3yo half-sister, the promising Poet’s Praise, is trained by Ralph Beckett and also runs on Friday at Wolverhampton. Beckett’s yard runs a couple of well-touted 2yos of their own on Friday: Grapple (in the 15:00 against Quite Cheeky) and Marsala (against Next of Kin in the 15:35), both to be ridden by Rossa Ryan.
Unlike the colts’ race, this Class 4 fillies’ maiden looks to have real depth, and we could see several very useful performers emerge from the line-up.
Friday Haggas 2yo Summary
- Recommendation: No Bet.
- Because I suspect both horses will be priced at 5/1 or bigger, there is No Lay recommended either
Friday’s Older Runners & Yard Form
The betting outlook for Haggas’s three older runners on Friday is heavily clouded by the stable’s current form. Had the yard’s strike rate been closer to its typical midsummer level of 25%+, rather than the current quiet spell of 10–13%, one of these might have represented a strong betting opportunity.
14:22 Nottingham – Guesstimate (1m Class 5 Maiden)
Going to post for the seventh time, Guesstimate lines up in a five-runner maiden. We backed her at Redcar (9/1 into 11/2) last time out on the back of an improved showing in a Class 2 Novice at Goodwood, for which the handicapper raised her to a mark of 72.
That Redcar race was likely decent quality for the track; the winner, Room Fourteen (who had form tied in with subsequent Listed winner Venetia), followed up that win with ease off a 4lb higher mark.
However, Guesstimate ran terribly. After travelling well alongside Room Fourteen at the two-furlong pole, she flattened out completely to be beaten over 13 lengths.
Friday’s contest looks like a match between her and the Ed Walker-trained Hauteluce, whose penalty for a Wolverhampton win is negated by stable apprentice Ashley Lewis claiming 5lb. After that weak Redcar display, Guesstimate looks less like a progressive filly and more like one where any kind of win is being sought simply to secure future paddock value.
- Recommendation: No Bet
16:45 Newbury – Luminaire (1m Fillies’ Class 5 Handicap)
Luminaire returns to Newbury, where she looked an unlucky loser on her latest outing. Generally, she has lacked luck in her races this season, and her string of placed efforts is certainly not due to a lack of resolution.
However, the form of her last race has not worked out well. Given the lingering doubts over the stable’s overall health and form, this is a betting opportunity I am happy to pass on. I prefer to watch and monitor her performance in the context of the yard’s wider strike rate.
- Recommendation: No Bet.
18:58 Newmarket – High Degree (1m Class 3 Handicap)
Finally, the “bookmakers’ pension fund” contributor High Degree reappears at headquarters. He has been found a winnable opportunity to rebuild the confidence required to ignite a frustrating and expensive campaign for his followers.
This Class 3 0-90 handicap (which allows horses rated 91 to compete) will be his fourth start of the season. In his three previous outings—all in competitive, high-quality handicaps—he was sent off at short prices (7/4, 11/8, and Evens) having been backed in from around 7/2 each time.
In this six-runner field, there is happily zero chance of getting 7/2 or even 7/4 to tempt us, though he will likely be heavily supported as if defeat is out of the question.
Last time out at Musselburgh, he was held up too far off a slow pace, which is always a risk at the Scottish track. Ridden by Clifford Lee for the first time, the gelding made no real effort to peg back the leaders when they quickened. Lee, perhaps thinking he was on an easy steering job, appeared to be caught out by the horse’s awkwardness and relative laziness under pressure.
Cieren Fallon takes the ride on Friday and will not let that happen again, but I have felt since his seasonal reappearance at Newbury that High Degree is a horse crying out for headgear. Even if the yard’s strike rate was up at 33% rather than 13%, I could not back him at the likely short odds. Will he win? Probably. But after burning our fingers three times already this season, there is no need to return to the fire on Friday.
- Recommendation: No Bet.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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