Although the strike rate for July remains at a lowly 13% there was a strong indication over the past seven days that the trials and tribulations of the first part of the month have gone and the rest of the month can be assessed, based on the fact that the horses are running to form.
The likelihood that the dry hot conditions will continue for the next 14 days is also a bonus as we now know where we stand with most of the runners having to deal with fast ground .
I would expect to have bets most days this week and Lady Rosalind can get us off to a winning start at Windsor by defying her penalty in the Fillies Novice Stakes at 6.20 on Monday.
She is a full sister to the Group placed Soul Love rated 101 who is owned by her breeder David Ward who also retains an interest in her sire Starman.
Lady Rosalind has largely already secured a high value in the paddocks with her Ripon win and the aim now will be to build up her profile towards hopefully being able to earn black type.
Her win at Ripon was achieved due to her natural gate speed, ability to handle fast ground and tenacity to go past a well backed market leader Eleven Eight Two who achieved an RPR of 69 on her previous outing at Carlisle and was odds on in running after securing the stands side rail.
The form of the Carlisle race has worked out exceptionally well and I believe the RPR of 75 under estimates the performance of Lady Rosalind who gave 3lb to Eleven Eight Two and was a comfortable 3/4L winner, staying on strongly through the line.
The form of Lady Rosalind’s first run at Yarmouth was boosted when the winner Zigzag Ah won the 2yo Super Sprint at Newbury on Saturday. The Haggas filly held an entry in that race and in hindsight connections may have wished she had taken her chance in that 300,000 contest.
Once the melee to get the better quality juvenilles ready for Royal Ascot has subsided a lot of 2yo’s are given more time to mature and or obtain attractive handicap marks. This provides a greater number of race scenario’s that enable juvenile winners to defy penalties. The last 3 horses to attempt this last week, Call Me Nicky, Quillan and Satellite of Love were all successful.
I am confident that Lady Rosalind is a filly that can progress to race off marks in the high 80’s. All of the Somerville Lodge juveniles to have ran in July have ran well and she was the yard’s first 2yo winner of the season at Ripon.
In the last 5 years Haggas has sent out 13 2yo’s attempting to defy penalties in Novice stakes races – 8 have won.
On Monday she has drawn a perfect stall in 2 and with her proven gate speed I expect her to win without seeing another rival. 9 line up with several trained by leading yards having shown promise and together with the penalty this should help her price hold up. Anything around 7/4 is value.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Lady Rosalind 6.20 Windsor
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