The retention policy for keeping more older horses ( 4yo+) in training at Somerville Lodge this season shows a slight drop in overall strike rate, it is delivering superior quality where it matters most in Class 1 races (Listed and Group 1,2,3)
Where it has proved less successful is in Class 2 and 3 handicaps the record this year is 12 from 67 compared to 14 from 40 in 2025 over the same period to the end of July.
There is a clear statistic that is the reason for this poor record. Horses rated 85 + at the end of the 3yo season racing over 8f to 10.5f have won just 2 races from 31 during the current turf season. The winner’s were Yabher, and Alobayyah the Royal Ascot winner. 14 have been sent off as the market leader. The record based on the same stats in 2025 5-17.
Before this season a lot of these types would have been sold to race in Asia as 4yo’s – it will be very interesting to see what policy is adopted this Autumn.
Analysis: Retention Strategy for Older Horses (4yo+)
1. Overall Performance (4yo+) As of late July
- 2026: 22 wins / 123 runners (17.88% strike rate)
- 2025: 18 wins / 77 runners (23.38% strike rate — +5.5%)
- 2024: 19 wins / 94 runners (20.21% strike rate — +2.3%)
While the volume of runners has increased significantly, the overall win-to-runner ratio has tightened slightly compared to previous seasons. However, overall strike rates fail to tell the full story.
2. Class 1 Performance (Group 1, 2, 3 & Listed) The true value of retaining older horses becomes clear when analyzing performance at the highest level:
| Year | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 8 | 20.00% |
| 2025 | 23 | 3 | 13.04% |
| 2024 | 54 | 8 | 16.67% |
The yard has already equaled the high-water mark of 2024 before the 01 August for Class 1 wins while posting its highest strike rate in three years (20%).
3. Major Summer Festivals (Class 1 & Class 2 Contests) A breakdown of performance across the premier summer fixtures (Royal Ascot, Qatar Goodwood, and York Ebor):
Royal Ascot
- 2026: 3 wins / 13 runners (23.08%)
- 2025: 0 wins / 6 runners
- 2024: 1 win / 10 runners (10.00%)
Goodwood Festival (In Progress)
- 2026 (to date): 1 win / 3 runners
- 2025: 2 wins / 8 runners
- 2024: 1 win / 3 runners
York Ebor Festival (Historical Context)
- 2025: 2 wins / 4 runners (50.00%)
- 2024: 0 wins / 6 runners
Owner-Breeder Value: These high-level returns are critical to the yard’s core owner-breeders, whose commercial models rely heavily on securing Black Type and high-profile successes at marquee summer festivals. This is especially significant as the yard never sets out to target Class 1 races for 2yo’s
Betting Perspective: Beyond the usual draft of improving 3-year-olds, the yard now possesses a deeper, proven roster of older horses capable of scoring at the highest level during major meetings—offering valuable betting angles for the second half of the season, beginning on Friday at Goodwood.
There are six meetings on Friday but the yards sole focus is on Glorious Goodwood with a team of six comprising three 3yo’s and three older horses. Five of the six are likely to be towards the head of the market.
First up is Valiancy in the 2m4f handicap at 1.50. He was also entered in the 1m6f handicap on Saturday but has been chosen to tackle this marathon trip which will be 6f further than he has ran before. Wathnan Racing also own the market leader Sing Us A Song in the 1m6f race trained by Ralph Beckett.
The analyses is straight forward if he stays he wins. He was 15/8 favourite for the Copper Horse at Royal Ascot but raced lazily having been held up from a wide draw. When he got going, the race had got away from him but he stayed on well to finish a never nearer 6th.
He was ante-post market leader for the Northumberland Plate but was withdrawn at the final declaration stage with Goodwood in mind.
The essential factor that makes him a bet on Friday is his draw in stall 5. That may seem strange but it means James Doyle should easily get a position on the far rail, which should enable the horse to race in a good rhythm and avoid the lazy running style he showed at Ascot.
Valiancy has given every indication that he will stay long distances but you never really know until they try it, so although I would normally recommend an each way bet with 9/2 on offer, because of the doubt about stamina I advise a win only bet.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Valiancy 1.50 Goodwood Friday
Next up is the unaptly named Sober Strike who has turned many Haggas supporters onto the hard stuff after his last two runs. He reappears in a strong 1m Group 3 contest at 14.25
Go back to the spring and I don’t think you could have found a single person in Somerville Lodge that didn’t think this son of Night of Thunder was anything other than a Group 1 horse.
However, his runs at Royal Ascot and York suggested he will struggle to win a Group 3. With the proven Group 1 Goldophin horse Talk of New York in the line up and as short as 4/7 in the markets – Saber Strike has it all do.
He is a horse that cannot be considered again as a prospective betting opportunity until and if he can shed ‘the morning glory’ tag with which he is currently labelled.
No Bet Recommended.
Another Somerville Lodge enigma Scoville, not dissimilar to Sober Strike, is currently as short as 8/1 in the market for the 175,000 guaranteed Golden Mile Handicap at 15.00.
Scoville was also touted as a future Group 1 winner after carrying a penalty in a Newmarket novice stakes to victory in a quick time by 14L. Since that win he has gone to post just four times including once as an odds on market leader in a Group 3 contest in Deauville.
In each race he has given up any chance of winning by refusing to settle throughout the race , on the first three occasions finishing well beaten towards the back of the field. There was more to like about his last run in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot where he was only collared well inside the final furlong and finished 7th in the field of 30.
Had Scoville been drawn low and close to the far rail on Friday I would have given him an each way chance . I am sure he will still pull his way to the front but Marquand would have been able to conserve some energy around the bend with the rail to help. From his position in stall 13 extra energy will be used to get across to the rail and that is probably going to be enough for the tank to empty and see him passed, probably by several rivals inside the final furlong.
No bet recommended.
The stable talking horses keep coming on Friday this time in the shape of Crown of Oaks in the Bentinck Conditions stakes over 9f at 4.10. I was surprised when the 4yo ran on fast ground in Ireland on seasonal debut and I am also mystified to see him running on fast ground at Goodwood.
I suspect that he badly needed the race at the Curragh and is running here in preparation for a future target when softer ground conditions will be in his favour. He run poorly and dropped away very quickly on that first outing and I would expect this to be a confidence rebuilding run designed to see him finish off his race.
No bet recommended
The penultimate runner on the day is the improving 3yo filly Pierian who runs for the first time in handicap company off a mark of 88 in the Class 3 0-90 over 11f. That rating is based on questionable form in a Longchamp listed race when she was beaten over 6l but got put up 6lb by the handicapper.
Her mark is not generous and the balance of her form doesn’t stack up to the Appleby runner Into the Light who races off the same rating and also Astracornus in receipt of 14lb.
Although the Longchamp race was over a month ago nothing has ran since and the feeling is that it wasn’t the strongest listed event. Into the Light last ran when sent off second in the market at 4/1 for the King George V Handicap at Ascot. That form has been well advertised subsequently, he had a wide trip throughout and was given an easy time through the final 2f. His form previously behind The Lost Boys is by far the best on offer and given what could be a stiff mark of 88 for Pierian I am going to watch without betting.
No Bet Recommended.
There will be a team of around 10 heading to post on Saturday from Somerville Lodge but the most likely winner of the weekend is Silver Lake in the 5.55 on Friday. Her win at Salisbury went under the radar as she was the only winner on the day from a twelve strong team that ran on Super Saturday.
The handicapper may have also taken his eye off the ball as she was only put up 2lb for the win to a mark of 77. This race is a step up to a class 2 but there are only 6 opponents and she is able to race off just 8’6′ with Saffie Osborne taking the ride.
Bet 365 initially put her in the market at 15/8 that looked too big and she was quickly cut to Evs. Any price around that is ok, she has the scope to be competitive off marks in the high 80’s and she is our next 3pt win Bet
Recommended Bet Silver Lake 3pt win 5.55 Goodwood
Chrysalis Consortium 
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