Goodwood Day 1 and 2 has been exactly what was ordered. Lake Forest landing our biggest bet of the summer in the Lennox and Tom Marquand back on track getting the better of Oisin Murphy in a thrilling finish aboard Infraad and surviving a Stewards enquiry to land the opener on Wednesday. The 3yo will hopefully head for the Melrose at York, although he is entered in the Great Voltigeur.
Lake Forest was heavily backed near the off in the Sussex Stakes but was ridden for luck and didn’t get any. He was stopped three or four times in running but the two top 3yo’s proved their class and at best we may have got 3rd place with a clearer passage. It was a great race and Bow Echo deserves his place and status as the top 3yo in training this season.
Much quieter on Thursday with just one Haggas trained runner at Goodwood. The bookmakers are well and truly on the rocks after day 2 and hopefully this will continue on Thursday.
Readers will know that my bet recommendations away from Somerville Lodge are as rare as ‘hens teeth’ but the word from my contacts for the Simon Crisford trained 2yo Flann Sunna is so strong that any price around 2/1 is to good to miss.
The son of Blue Point is perfectly drawn in stall 10 and has shown real class and pure speed in his 2 runs so far. It will be a major surprise if he is beaten. He is a potential Commonwealth Cup winner as a 3yo.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Flonn Sunna 14.25 Goodwood Thursday 2/1 Ladbrokes and Corals
William Haggas sends only one runner to the Sussex Downs on Thursday in the shape of Zennor Storm in the Class 3 1m handicap that closes the card at 5.55. He is fitted with cheek pieces for the first time and with a better draw would have been worth an each way bet at odds of 12/1. However stall 13 for a horse that will need to be held up at Goodwood means having to take a precarious route up the centre and then more likely being forced wide. That was the case with Proposal who ran really well to be 5th in a race that was very similar to Thursdays contest.
He may reward place money but with the win looking unlikely I will wait for better opportunities on Friday and Saturday when at Goodwood alone there will be 9 or 10 fancied runners.
No Bet Recommended
Away from Glorious Goodwood Crown Office and Queens Hame head to Nottingham, with Chimes of Thunder and Evening Fades racing on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton.
At Nottingham Crown Office steps up in trip to 10f for the handicap at 3.10 but aside from his dam Antonia De Vega ( Lope De Vega) there is very little in his pedigree to suggest that trips in excess of a mile will be suitable.
He is by No Nay Never and I thought his disappointing run at Ascot was more down to his track position, towards the far side away from the action in a race that looked a hot Class 3, than a lack of pace.
This is a much weaker race and his price will reflect that fact. The improving Roger Varian trained Cheveley Park filly Supplicate will head the market and with a big question mark over stamina Crown Office is not a betting opportunity.
No Bet Recommended
Queen Hame faces only 4 opponents in the novice stakes at 3.45 it still looks considerably hotter than her debut race, when she was sent off as the 10/11 market leader. That run at best rates her at around 60 and although she will of course improve, she faces the 82 rated colt Marquessofanglesey in receipt of just 5lb and it looks a tall order.
No Bet Recommended
At Wolverhampton Chimes of Thunder is considered better than her current rating of 76 and runs again in the maiden at 5.47. She has been sent off as the 11/8 market leader on her last two outings but that was more down to where she is trained than a true market price.
In all her races this season she has come up against some useful fillies including the subsequent listed placed Cap Santa Lucia now rated 97 and Symbol of Majesty who was 2nd in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot off a mark of 86.
There are two dangers, both unraced – The Gosden’s, Juddmonte owned Kingman colt Pyramid and the daughter of Night of Thunder Bintward trained by Roger Varian
Bintward looks the type of filly that will need further and Pyramid will have to be a potential 90+ rated horse to beat Chimes of Thunder giving her 5lb.
It is the time of year when betting opportunities can start to occur in Novice and Maiden stakes races and as long as I can get 6/4 or bigger I will back the Haggas filly.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Chimes of Thunder 2/1 bet 365
The final runner of the day is the disappointing Evening Fades who has not progressed in her 4 runs so far. The step up in trip to 12f in this 3yo only handicap at 7.32 should help. Unfortunately she is poorly drawn in stall 11 in a maximum field of 12 and comes up against Si White a Sir Mark Prescott improver who after winning well at Southwell looks well handicapped with just a 6lb penalty.
No bet Recommended
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