The continued fast ground is a cause for concern and caution from a betting point of view. Further close analyses of the poor performance of the yards runners at Newmarket on Saturday reveals that the probable reason for the below par runs of at least three of the stables runners was the fast ground.
This seems to impact on horses as they run into the dip on the July course normally at the point they are put under maximum pressure. Looking back through the replays that certainly appears to have been the case with Orionis, Divine Knight and Thaluna. It was the same with Princling, Almeraq and Thunder Call at the July Festival, unfortunately a lesson not learned until after yesterday’s losses.
Fast ground wasn’t the case for Power Fizz who after coming back after a year off with a win in the early spring was again off until a comeback back at Newcastle last month. Unfortunately both in that race and his run at Chester on Sunday suggests all is still not well.
As expected Sea the Storm was outclassed in the German Oaks and has now been transferred to the yard of Amy Murphy in France.
The ground on Monday will be fast at Nottingham and in the finale Venetian Lion will be odds on to make up for his unfortunate defeat when we backed the gelding at Southwell. He was punted from 4/1 into 5/2 and but for a tardy start would have won easily. The world and his wife witnessed that run and I expect him to be sent off around 4/6 on Monday. He has been put in the market at 5/6. He should be a good thing but is unproven on fast ground his improved form was on the AW surface at Southwell – at odds on he is a No Bet. He is closely related to both Forest of Dean and English Oak and could run up a sequence from a handicap mark of 65 –if he handles fast ground.
No Bet Recommended
One horse that has proven ability on fast ground (at Newmarket) is the maiden Yimmna. A 650,000 euro yearling, she has taken time to strengthen up and with plenty of stamina on her dam’s side this 8F trip on fast ground will probably the minimum test for her. However she showed plenty of speed at Newmarket and her other entry this week was in a 7f Novice stakes back at HQ for which the 104 rated Cerro Blanco is also entered.
Her run in a 3 horse race behind the very useful Gosden trained filly Starlight Lass seems to have been underrated. With several of the runners in the field rated higher we should, at least in the early markets for the Nottingham opener at 2.40, get a value price.
These novice events can offer mixed messages as the markets develop. This was the case with the Haggas filly Chimes of Thunder at Wolverhampton, last week, where the front three fluctuated throughout the day and only in the final hour did the true picture emerge with Chimes of Thunder drifting from 2/1 to 10/3 as the market turned in favour of the other market leaders.
She has been put in as the 7/4 market leader which is just fair but with the Haggas record in 3yo Novice Stakes races in August – 31 from 80 that price is about right. Unlike the Chimes of Thunder race all the main contenders are exposed, so I don’t forsee any major drift..
Recommended Bet 1pt win Yimmna 2.40 Nottingham
At Ripon Creative Queen attempts to gain a 2nd win and first in handicap company in the 5f sprint at 3.24. Cheek pieces replace the blinkers and she is over the minimum trip for the first time.
Her win was achieved on soft ground but after that win connections stated she hated the ground and will be better on fast ground. She showed plenty of speed and at Newbury over 7f and Carlisle over the stiff 6f she has failed to stay.
However on both occasions she has also not looked straight forward which explains why the cheek pieces replace blinkers. Although she has the pole draw in Stall 5 she is tall filly and that throws up a question of whether she will handle the infamous roller coaster Ripon course. I think it will be a question of Fallon setting her a light from the gates and seeing if she can last home.
The Haggas record at the track adds an interesting angle. Creative Queen will be his first runner this century over 5f in a handicap. His overriding record with 3yo in handicaps over 6f is 7 from 16, with 2 from 3 in the last 5 years.
She is up against two in form sprinters Zoustar Dreams and Angel Numbers and the drop down in trip will need to bring about improvement from her last two runs but this a significant drop in grade.
With the Haggas strike rate this year well below 2025 levels getting the right price is evermore crucial before betting one from the yard.
The price of 4/1 is tempting but this season remarkably I think only Another Abbot last Monday has won for the yard in handicap company after running below form on its previous outing. Zennor Storm and Evening Fades were also both 2nd at 18/1 last week to suggest that dismal trend could change in the next part of the season- with some horses becoming well handicapped.
No recommended Bet
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