The summer of 2026 will go down as being hot for many reasons; the form of the Somerville Lodge team is certainly not one of them.
Somerville Lodge runners invariably attract significant support; therefore, a review of those sent off as market leaders provides an accurate guide to the stable’s form.
Throughout June, July, and August, 65 horses have been sent off as market leaders, yielding just 21 winners at a strike rate of 32%. In 2025, for the extended period up to the end of August, there were 109 favourites producing 57 winners—a strike rate of over 52%.
The 2026 strike rate is considerably lower than that of other leading yards, including Appleby, Gosden, Balding, and Burke. In 2025, Haggas topped that league, with only Appleby coming within 10% of his record.
Within those numbers, 3yo handicappers were 17 from 34 in 2025, compared to 9 from 26 this summer. 4yo+ handicappers emphasise the downward spiral: those sent off favourite were 8 from 14 in the summer of 2025, but just 2 from 17 this year.
From a betting perspective, I loosened the reins during the first week of August to adopt a system centred on backing Haggas-trained 2yos on their second outing. With certain conditions added, this strategy produced a strike rate of over 61% over the last five years, but in August 2026, the first four were beaten—three of them running poorly.
All this leads to the conclusion that the current Haggas win strike rate, which normally sets the yard apart from all others, is not currently operating at levels capable of supporting a predictable betting strategy.
The reasons inevitably focus on the fast ground that has prevailed throughout the summer period. This shows no sign of abating, and until it does, I will not be betting at the levels that would normally be expected at the height of the season.
Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting has always been well supported by William Haggas with a decent level of success. This year, four horses take part:
Frances Ethel starts off her season in the 12f handicap at 14:45. She took time to adjust to life in the UK before outrunning odds of 20/1 in a 10f Listed race on the All-Weather at Lingfield.
Her ability to stay the extra 2f is an unknown, and with a wide draw in stall 11 unlikely to be a positive, she cannot be considered a betting opportunity.
No Bet Recommended
Thunder Call in the Sprint at 15:20 heads the market at 7/4. This is poor value—on his latest run he struggled on fast ground at Newmarket, where it also appeared he needed a step up in trip to 7f. It never ceases to amaze me how Haggas-trained horses introduced into markets at short prices can continue to contract; however, I will be very surprised if Thunder Call is sent off shorter than 2/1. Even those odds represent poor value, and the chestnut—who remains a horse of high potential—is not recommended as a bet under the conditions of Saturday’s race.
No Bet Recommended
In the 3yo-only handicap at 15:55, Hoseki bids to repeat the win of Tenability in the race last season, who overcame all sorts of trouble to snatch victory on the line.
Tenability also won the same Ascot race Hoseki took earlier this season and races off the same mark of 88. I am not convinced Hoseki has the scope of Tenability, who runs in a Group 3 at Deauville on Saturday (see below). She does, however, have the very capable hands of Saffie Osborne doing the steering. Her win last time suggested she has more stamina than speed; this could develop into a tactical affair, and given the current overall level of yard form, I am not willing to get involved at 15/8, although in this case the price may shorten.
No Bet Recommended
Finally at Ascot, Bullet Point is fitted with cheekpieces in the hope they will revive the 5yo, who has struggled to recover his form following an unsuccessful trip to Australia and a tough 4yo campaign that saw his rating rise from 89 to 105.
His two disappointing runs this season have seen that mark drop to 101, but he needs to finish off his races to show he has retained his ability. The 8f handicap at 16:30 looks the most competitive on the card, and his current form means he is not a betting opportunity.
No Bet Recommended
Yimmna was pulled out of what looked like a winnable 8f maiden at Nottingham on Monday with a minor knock. She has recovered and is out again over 7f at Redcar on Saturday at 14:02.
The race looks like a match with the Crisford filly Raggaas, and although 7f looks to be plenty sharp enough, she should get off the mark at short odds in the hands of Cieren Fallon, who heads north specifically for the ride.
No Bet Recommended
Tom Marquand heads to Haydock to ride the Royal Ascot winning filly Alobayyah in the Listed Dick Hern Stakes at 15:00. The race, from a betting point of view, has been decimated by the inclusion of Fallen Angel, who has 14lb in hand on the field. All that matters now for Alobayyah is adding black type to her name, and that should be achieved on Saturday. Frustratingly, though, it will blow her current handicap mark of 96—off which she could win a high-quality handicap.
No Bet Recommended
The aforementioned Tenability runs in the 12:58 Group 3 at Deauville in preference to an option in a Group 3 at Leopardstown on Thursday. This looks slightly easier, with no horse of the quality of Ethical Diamond in the lineup, but I cannot ignore the fact that Cieren Fallon has decided to stay in the UK to ride Yimmna in the maiden at Redcar. Had there been 8 runners, the 4yo—who has delivered for us on numerous occasions—would likely have been an each-way bet. With just six heading to post, I will take a watching brief.
No Bet Recommended
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