Saturday started off in a manner that sums up the Somerville Lodge season so far.Tenability smashed in the market from 3/1 to 6/4 was held up at the back of the field off a very slow pace in the Group 3 at Deauville and although running his usual courageous race couldn’t peg back the 18/1 surprise winner finishing 3rd beaten 1l and a short head.
Yimmna also heavily backed (5/6-4/7)- was 2nd well beaten despite the price. She will be of interest when going handicapping over a longer trip, the drop back to 7f had always looked a concern.
Frances Ethel a huge drifter from 6/1 – 33/1 ran very well to be 4th and she looks more than capable of winning for the first time on these shores in the next couple of weeks.
Alobayyah got an awful trip after missing the break but was disappointing given the Group 1 winner Fallen Angel under performed and black type was there for the taking.
Thunder Call as we anticipated got caught for pace as they quickened up over 6f at Ascot and couldn’t claw back Red Spells Danger.
Hoseki was held up and unfortunately confirmed my impression that she needed a stiffer test of stamina now over 12f. She can still win again but probably upped in trip in one of the Class 2 handicaps at Haydock in the Autumn.
Bullet Point was yet another Haggas to be heavily backed despite the current low strike rate of the yard and as I suspected is still too high in the weights. He ran well to finish 3rd and is another that can win before the end of the season.
As predicted no winners on Saturday for Somerville Lodge – hopefully there is one that stands out on Sunday.
Sundays contenders.
Division’s bid for the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville on Sunday maybe the headline act but from a point of ‘yard form’ the 3 runners at Leicester requires close inspection. With Tom Marquand booked to ride Big Mojo a short price to win at the Curragh, the top form Cieren Fallon takes the rides.
Art Lover, Al Maslool and Venetian Sky would in a normal year all be considered serious betting opportunities. Given the current state of the Somerville Lodge strike rate and inconsistent performances that have blighted the current campaign it requires a deep delve into every aspect of each race before getting involved.
Once again this month the horses have ran with no consistency with Fast Performer, Windbreaker, Pure Majesty and Power Fizz running no sort of race. Only Venetian Lion, Brighton Beach and Ancestor ( all odds on ) winning from over 20 runners sent to post before Saturday.
The stand out bet of the day and probably the month so far comes in the shape of Venetian Sky in the mile handicap at 4.09. On official ratings she is not obviously well treated off her mark of 74 ( which will help with her early price). The form of her previous two outings conceals her potential and along with Silver Lake and the colt Venetian Lion she is towards the head of my list of 3yo’s I wanted to back when they moved into handicap company. Her mark of 74 is higher than either the other pair who both won with ease and will now race of marks in the 80’s.
That is also the level that this daughter of St Marks Basilica can win from and It will be very disappointing if she cannot get off the mark in this weak Class 5 handicap. She has pulled hard in her early races and it looks like there will be a weak pace in this contest. She has got the advantage of Stall 1 and will have the far rail which will help Fallon settle her early.
Her relatives possessed a good turn of foot and she is confidently expected to follow stablemates Silver Lake and Venetian Lion as progressive 3yo’s that can progress and win several races before the handicapper catches up with them. She has been introduced in the market at 10/3 by Betfair and Paddy Power which is good value given what she potentially has in hand. Bet 365 only went 2/1 which is the price I anticipate her to go off on the off.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Venetian Sky 4.03 Leicester Sunday-10/3
Al Maslool did everything wrong and required Jason Watson to be at his best to break his maiden tag by a nose last time out at Chester- the step up in trip to !2f+ helped. He is up 2lb in this 12f contest at 3.34 for that success. This is the same grade but looks a tougher race and he won’t be able to adopt the same running style on this more galloping track and get away it. Mountbatten and Barak Warrior are 3yo’s that also have the potential to be big improvers and it looks a tricky race to call.
No Bet Recommended
Art Lover was one of a trio of horses that was desperately unlucky in running at Chester on a miserable Super Saturday for Haggas followers. The other two were Infraad, and Venetian Sky. Infraad put it right at Goodwood and hopefully Venetian Sky will have done the same earlier in the afternoon.
The form of Art Lover‘s race has not worked out well although all the horses to have ran again have faced stiff tasks.
Although there are only 6 runners stall 1 on the straight course at Leicester is not a good track position and given the slight doubt that he may ‘bounce’ after his return from a year off I will not be backing Art Lover, the 2/1 early price is far from generous.
No Bet Recommended.
Division is a Group 1 horse that has been dogged by misfortune, some of which is self inflicted from being awkward at the starting stalls.He gets another chance to give Wathnan Racing their first Group 1 success on Sunday.
Poor draws on the wing away from the pacesetters has exacerbated his frailties at the gates. He has an ideal pitch on Sunday drawn in 7 James Doyle will be able to choose which horses to track. In a race dominated by hold up performers Division will need to break well to avoid being to far back
This isn’t the strongest Group 1 with True Love (9/4) and Stolen Kiss (4/1) along with Division (4/1) dominating the market- if things fall right for Division he has the ability to win but given his history of being shrouded by bad luck he is not a betting proposition.
No Bet Recommended.
Division bids for Group 1 success on Sunday
Chrysalis Consortium 
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