With the increase in the number of older horses kept in training the least expected outcome from this season was a sharp decline in the winners sent out from Somerville Lodge.
The stark reality is that at this point of the season in 2025 the 100th winner had just been posted – in the current campaign the score is 75. The number of runners is very much the same 415 this season 407 in 2025. The strike rate is down from 23% to 18% this year.
By comparison the John and Thady Gosden team from 60 fewer runners in 2025 had sent out 70 winners at a strike rate just over 21%- this year from just 263 runners 65 winners have been recorded at a strike rate of over 23%
From a punting point of view the declining Somerville Lodge strike rate (SR) since 01 July is of real concern. In 2025 from 132 runners there were 42 winners. (32% SR) This year 126 runners 17 winners (14% SR)
In this six week period the Gosdens have sent out 16 winners from just 62 runners (26% SR) In 2025 79 runners provided 20 winners (25%SR)
Haggas followers must have deep pockets, despite there being big warning signs, especially on this site, 74 have been sent off 1st or 2nd in the market. Since the 1st July the level stakes loss of -35pts is punishing.
The performance of the yards horses in Group races over the six week period and another comparison with the Gosden team offers the cause and effect.
The records for both yards over the two seasons from 01 July to 10 August in Listed and Group 1,2,3 races is almost identical in terms of a 20% win strike rate and number of runners.
This summer both yards are equally impacted by the fast ground and restricted use of gallops on Newmarket Heath. The data suggests that the Gosden team is taking fewer risks with horses on fast ground. The Haggas team are running more but it is apparent ( quite rightly) that once they feel the impact of the firm ground they are not given hard races.
Haggas is also reluctant to run horses on the AW only 4 horses in 2026 compared to 10 from Gosden since 01 July 2026.
With York on the horizon the only logical conclusion is that horses such as Lake Forest and Maltese Cross ( unlikely runner) can be considered as betting opportunities.
On Monday the hope was the week would start with a win for the 2yo Next of Kin who was odds on to win on her 2nd outing. She was the first 2yo from Somerville Lodge since 2014 to contest a maiden race at Ayr, with the ease in the ground a key factor as she had several other entries this week.
Cieren Fallon kept it simple and made nearly every yard, thankfully improving from her debut to win at 10/11. Given how poorly the 2yo’s ran last week a few more will need to show similar form before we can invest, in them with confidence , especially on fast ground. Next of Kin has scope to win again.
Lorca’s Waltz contested the 10f handicap, also sent to Ayr in search of better ground. However both his high mark and the extended trip was beyond him and he was disappointing finishing unplaced.
Another Abbot was steady in the market throughout the day and gave it a good go from the front having seen daylight from the off. He had nothing left inside the final furlong weakening to finish 8th.
One runner on the AW at Lingfield on Tuesday Guesstimate looks to have a tough task against some in form improving fillies in the 10f handicap at 3.30. Spirit of Athena was impressive at Sandown and looks capable of following up if she can extricate a clear path from a stall 1 draw on the rails.
No Bet Recommended.
Lake Forest leads Haggas York Team
Chrysalis Consortium 
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