Since the 1st July a win strike rate of 14.8% for Somerville Lodge, considerably less than half than what normally would be expected, in a nutshell explains why betting for profit on horses from the yard based on historic trends and patterns has become impossible this summer.
39 have been sent off as the market leader with only 12 winning and an equally poor strike rate of 30% and level stakes loss of over 12pts.
The fast ground has to be the main factor but the impact has hit Somerville Lodge hardest amongst the top league of UK trainers. Andrew Balding will not be happy with a strike rate of 17% but the other big hitters Beckett, and Burke are over 20% the Gosden’s 25% Varian is touching 28% and they are all headed by Appleby on 34%
The bookmakers are still heavily cutting the prices of most Somerville Lodge runners although there has been a trend in recent days for several to drift markedly as post time arrives.
Given the current situation I will provide a daily detailed analyses on the race featuring the best chance of success for the yard. Only one runner today- Guesstimate in the Lingfield 3.30.
The meeting is on the AW track at Lingfield and the race has attracted a competitive field of 10 fillies. Guesstimate has been priced at around 17/2 and that has remained constant throughout the early markets.
She was cheaply purchased as a 20,000Y and her pedigree suggested that the best of her form would come late into her 3yo season over trips in excess of 12f. She is related to Reaching High and the Ascot Gold Cup winner Estimate. That low purchase price may have been as a result of her being a compact small filly that may lack scope for improvement.
Her 2yo career was encouraging finishing 3rd and 2nd in maidens at Newmarket and Kempton , where it was noted that she seemed well galloped and unlike many of the Haggas 2yo’s knew her job well.
That progress stalled at the start of her 3yo career, ridden vigorously from the front on her seasonal debut over 8f at Kempton she dropped away to be last finishing well beaten despite being sent off the 2/1 market leader.
She got the reverse ride at Wolverhampton on her next start ridden with too much restraint and could only finish 3rd beaten over 3l. On her next outing stepped up to 10f for the first time she showed promise for the first time in her 3yo career. Traveling strongly in a 25,000 Class 2 Goodwood maiden she lacked the pace to challenge but stayed on well suggesting that her handicap mark of 72 would give her a chance of success in that grade.
She was pitched into a Class 4 contest at Redcar when she opened up at 9/1 and was supported into 11/2. She was extremely disappointing – held up at the back of the field she was only able to plod on looking very slow and couldn’t muster a challenge.
On her latest outing she was found a weak maiden and with her lack of pace in mind she was given a forceful ride from the front and with the only danger and odds on favourite hating the firm ground she was able to win for the first time.
Although the beaten favourite Hauteluce came out and Won on the AW the form of the runner up has not worked out well and the obvious conclusion is that Guesstimate is not well handicapped back in a Class 4 and will need a longer trip to bring about any further improvement.
This race looks even tougher than the Redcar handicap she contested. Spirit of Athene, Distant Shore and Radiance all look fillies with scope for a great deal of improvement. Spirit of Athene did extremely well to win from a hold up ride at Sandown on a day where there was a track bias towards pace setters- she is looking for her 3rd win from her last 4 starts.
Distant Shore has promised more than she has delivered but should have won at Nottingham last time when she was given too much to do. Radiance is something of a ‘talking horse’ and has been sent off favourite on all her three outings and returns, after 10 months off, on what could be a good handicap mark of 84, given her reputation.
However , fillies that get on a role at this time of year, can never be discounted There looks certain to be a strong pace which will help Shoemark extract Spirit of Athene from the far rail and with 7/2 on offer she would be my pick to take the step up in Class from 5 to 4 in her stride.
REFA Hagtag 2026
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