On Tuesday Guesstimate outran her odds at Lingfield Park finishing 2nd at 8/1 after being available at 11/1 an hour before the off. The deep surface at Lingfield played to her strengths and she gave every indication that upped to 12f or further on a surface with some cut she may well improve enough to win a couple more races.
Remarkably although 10 weeks are left of the season no Somerville Lodge inmate is yet to win more than 2 races. Last season 17 won 3 races or more.
Two days with just one runner each day representing Somerville Lodge. On Wednesday the half sister to Dubai Honour, Manaar will be fully expected to get a second win in a weak Kempton novice at 6.00pm. Cieren Fallon takes the ride for Shadwell with Marquand taking six rides at Salisbury for outside stables.
Marquand does take the ride on another likely Somerville Lodge short priced winner Not My Type at Beverley on Thursday, who looked potential stakes class when successful on debut. She has a bit to find with the highly tried Amo Racing filly What A Girl Wants – it will be disappointing if she is not up to the task.
A quick look back over the past week—highlighting the runs of the horses that we backed and the reasons for the outcomes. Working backwards:
On Monday 10 August, Another Abbot could not reproduce the form of his win at Windsor two weeks previously under identical conditions—save for a step up from Class 3 to Class 2.
Following the first 4f ran in almost identical time to his win, his final two furlongs were 0.9 seconds slower (5.4L). He was beaten 4L by superior Class 2 horses who were able to maintain faster finishing splits than the Class 3 rivals he beat on his previous run.
It was a sharp lesson in how class matters, especially in sprint contests.
Betting Summary: The big gamble that was landed at Windsor overestimated the level of performance and masked the stiffer task on Monday.
Verdict: Even though only small EW bets were advised, the win part was unrealistic. MISTAKE
On Sunday 9 August, Venetian Sky looked to have been given a decent opportunity in an 8f Class 5 fillies’ handicap for the first time off a mark of 74.
Supported from 10/3 to 7/4 overnight, an ominous drift began around midday from 2/1 to 11/4, which continued until she was 4/1 at the off.
This was one that got away—concerns over the firm ground, which was faster than anticipated, almost certainly caused the drift. Held up too far back off a slow pace, she struggled to peg back the leaders when initially asked to quicken, but suddenly found her stride to complete the final furlong 2L faster than the winner.
Verdict: Beaten only 3/4L in a weak race, the 2pt bet was correct—she was the best filly in the field, and the cautious ride she recieved over concerns of the ground cost her the win. RIGHT CALL
The 2yo Gambles: These bets followed a system that focused on backing Somerville Lodge 2-year-olds making their second start in August when sent off among the top three in the betting markets. Each year since 2021, this approach has yielded a significant level-stakes profit.
The first qualifier, National Pride, although beaten into 2nd, was backed from 11/2 into 11/8 I allowed it to run unbacked as we missed the early prices. He ran well, suggesting that the 2026 2yo’s would mirror past years.
The first 2yo bet on Pure Majesty could be excused, as she looks like a filly with issues who is failing to learn. However, disappointing runs from Regalism and Fast Performer were sufficient evidence to conclude that, like the 3- and 4-year-olds, the juveniles were not performing at the levels of previous years which had never recorded a 0-4 start.
Sod’s law dictated that the fifth 2yo to race in August meeting the criteria, Next of Kin, would win unbacked.
Verdict: The system had proved so reliable over many years that it was difficult to ignore. In hindsight, the poor strike rate since 1 July 2026 hinted at a more cautious approach. However, the real question is when—and if—we resume backing it as the month progresses. RIGHT CALL
Thankfully we made significant ‘No Bet’ RIGHT CALLS on a host of heavily backed beaten favorites during the week including Hoseki, Thunder Call, Bullet Point, Al Maslool and Tenability which at least have kept matters under control with the current 12pt loss on the month overall, recoverable.
With the majority of entries this week not declared and a fifth heatwave about to hit the UK, bets will be few and far between—until the York Ebor meeting.
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