There seems very little point to continue to look back over historic trends relating to Somerville Lodge. They have always been one of the foundations that provided successful betting opportunities backing horses trained at Somerville Lodge month in month out. Since Royal Ascot they have proved worthless !
For the sake of habit Haggas’s last Ebor meeting without a win was 2021. He trained three winners in 2022 and 2023 and two in 2024 and 2025.
In 2022 his overall strike rate in August was over 25%, in 2023 and 2024 over 26% and in 2025 over 30%. This year in August so far it is under 15% and 0-19 in Group, Listed and Class 2,3 handicaps the categories of every York Race at the Ebor meeting except the maiden and novice events.
Hope springs eternal, although it was last seen disappearing over the horizon with its arse on fire after Scoville was held up at York and More Thunder was perfectly placed and found zero under pressure in the Prix Jacques Le Marois. If confirmation was needed that the horses are below par that was surely the defining race.
The sport goes on and with no runners on Monday and Tuesday my idea of the leading Somerville Lodge candidates for the Ebor meeting day by day are as follows:
Maltese Cross Great Voltigeur Day 1
The forecast rain looks unlikely to change the going description from good to firm which I believe is important for the Derby runner up to reverse the Derby form with Christmas Day and give 5lb to the heavily backed jt fav Pierre Bonnard.
Maltese Cross is as tough as any horse in racing and on fast ground he has a touch of speed that the likes of Christmas Day and Pierre Bonnard don’t have. He looks the best bet of the week for Haggas by some distance.
Rhapsody Galtres Stakes Thursday Day 2
The 4yo filly has ran really well in her two outings this season finishing 3rd over a mile at Royal Ascot and then 2nd stepped up to listed company at the Curragh, staying on strongly only beaten by Moody who will take on Kalpana and ‘co’ in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks.
She is priced at 6/1 in the early markets with John and Thady Gosden trained fillies occupying the first 3 places in the betting. I suspect only 2 will run.
Rhapsody who is bred to stay the 12f and has a turn of foot, acts on fast ground and should at least reward each way support.
Silver Lake Sky Bet Fillies Handicap Friday Day 3
After this improving Wathnan filly bolted up at Glorious Goodwood this race was the obvious next step up the class ladder for the daughter of Night of Thunder. The handicapper as expected put her up 9lb for the win, which allowed her to get into this Class 2 race off a mark of 86.
She will still race off a low weight and Saffie Osborne has again been booked. The form off her Goodwood win was boosted by the runner up Lady Dora Mae who went down by a Nk to a 98 rated Aga Khan owned filly in a listed contest at Clairefontaine.
DON’T EXPECT ANY FANCY PRICES !!
Lake Forest City of York Stakes Day 4
After what turned out to be a losing gamble of winning the Lennox and Sussex Stakes on consecutive days at Goodwood. Lake Forest reverts back to the original plan for the season of winning the Group 1 City of York stakes.
He was runner up last year but has every chance of going one better in this years renewal. The Goodwood frivolities should not mask the fact that Lake Forest is a greatly improved horse since his gelding operation over the winter.
He will get his ideal set up and unless Notable Speech turns up with his A game in place Lake Forest has nothing to fear. The Sussex Stakes outing means we will get a better price at York and he is worth an each way investment.
Stakes should be kept to a minimum given the evidence of the stable form this month.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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