I have for many years questioned the validity of the heavy early market support given to Haggas trained horses. There have been significant price reductions on 4 of the 5 runners at Newbury.
Punters are supposedly keeping the faith in the Somerville Lodge team inspite of the stark reality of the yards performance this month and on Saturdays in general backdating to Royal Ascot.
The win strike rate is 0- 25 on Saturday’s in Class 1,2,3 contests since Al Aasy won at 4/9 at Beverley
The overall record in August is 7 winners from 45. Those winners were all achieved in Novices and Maidens aside from one Class 5 Handicap. The prices of the winners – 4/6, 1/33, 6/4, 10/11, 8/15,5/6 and 5/6.
The early markets for Saturday ignore these statistics and are predicting this weekend a glut of Somerville Lodge Group winners and Class2 and 3 handicaps.
With York on the horizon I will be delighted if suddenly on Saturday that form is reversed. Logically it seems unlikely.
I suspect most of the entries which have already began to drift will continue to move out as the race times approach.
The early markets for the Newbury runners have seen them well supported. This includes a major gamble on Scoville in the 2.35 who is 7/4 having been as big as 7/1 after the final declarations were made.
Market trends Haggas runners Newbury Saturday:
Dubai Honour: High 9/4 – Lowest 11/8 – Current Best Price 2/1
Comment: The Class horse in the race but this looks to be a preparation for bigger Autumn events on softer ground. Unproven over the trip and has weakened in the final furlong on his last two attempts at 12f.
Has supported More Thunder and Maltese Cross in gallops in recent weeks and ready for a race but the ground is far from ideal.
Verdict: No Bet
Kinswoman: High 4/1 – Low 9/4 – Current Best Price 9/2 (drifting)
Has been racing in search of Black Type without luck but has had a series of hard races including in the Epsom Dash, where she was taken off her feet.
All her best form is on better ground when she has been able to dominate , she is unlikely to get that advantage this afternoon.
Verdict: No Bet
Scoville: High 7/1 – Low 7/4 – Current Best Price 7/4 (shortening)
Marquand in an Interview hinted that he may ‘try different tactics’ hopefully that is a bluff as the best chance of winning here is that he is likely to get a soft lead against mostly hold up horses. We managed to get 11/2 and I backed him again at 7/2 as he is a lot of quality and is very well handicapped.
He has a future entry in the 6f Ayr Gold Cup for which he would only get a 5lb penalty for a win today.
I sense a Haggas long term plan has been hatched and it will be disappointing if he doesn’t make all the running this afternoon and break the Haggas losing Saturday handicap spell.
Verdict: 7/4 is short, happy with the bets at 11/2 and 7/2.
Extremely Zain High 11/2- Low 4/1 – Current 9/2 (steady)
This is tricky as he has the potential to be up to this class in what looks a weak running of the Hungerford Stakes.
However, those backing him are factoring in at least 10lb of improvement. Whilst there are doubts about Never So Brave, any improvement from the well backed Symbol of Honour will be tough to overcome.
Verdict: No Bet – Probably would be an each way bet if team were in top form but happy to watch given current circumstances.
Bayaann: High 11/4 – Low 2/1 – Current Price 9/4
A very highly regarded 3yo who was pitched in the deep end at Royal Ascot and he couldn’t handle the occasion. Has been gelded subsequently and if that enables him to run to his potential then he will win this. It’s a big if, with the fast ground and this being his first run after ‘the cut’.
Golden Knight will make the pace and get a soft lead but Bayaann is potentially very well handicapped off a mark of 95 and if 100% ready could have too much speed for his 4 rivals.
Another that if the yard were in top form would be a bet but the current strike rate sways me to be cautious.
Verdict: No Bet
In Summary we have only backed Scoville who is very well handicapped at the right price of 11/2. Given the current strike rate I am happy that is the right policy.
On Sunday
More Thunder remains strong in the market at around 7/2 for the Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois on Sunday, which is a season long plan.
Verdict: Happy with 3pt bet at 9/2
High Degree 5.15 Pontefract
The 4yo has been returned as the 10/11, Evs, 7/4, 11/8 and 15/8 market leader in five consecutive high quality handicaps and the fact he has yet to win one of them, clarifies the loyalty of the Haggas followers and the utmost regard with which the horse is held.
As a consequence instead of a trip to York to contest a 100,000 Class 2 handicap he is off to Pontefract on Sunday at 5.15 to bid for a 25,000 Class 3.
The question is will the fitting of first time cheek pieces be the key factor that gets his head in front?
He has been backed again into short odds- the draw in stall 5 should allow him to take a lead from Shoof Baeed drawn in stall 2 and Ammes in stall 7 – with every other runner in the field of 8 likely to be held up he should be able to swoop round the bend coming into the straight and finally reward his backers.
We have taken part in two of the 5 gambles. Both times securing a price around 7/2. At Sandown he ran over a mile and a lack of pace got him beat finishing 3rd behind Beagle Boy and Raammee who then dotted up in the John Smiths Cup.
He was then put up in trip to 9f dropped down to a Class 3 at Musselburgh, where ridden for the first time by Clifford Lee, after an awkward start he got held up too far back, off steady fractions, and couldn’t peg back the leaders.
At Newmarket on his last outing we left him alone as all summer the July course has been a graveyard for Haggas punters and once again he bumped into a well handicapped horse in Al Aali who followed up by winning a Class 2 at Goodwood with the minimum of fuss.
There is nothing lurking in the wings on Sunday. I felt after Sandown that he needed some headgear to concentrate his mind but to be fair to the horse aside from Musselburgh he has done nothing wrong. If he had won any of the 4 races he has contested this season and was running in Sundays race off a 5lb higher mark he would be odds on in this field.
Off a mark of 91 he has at least 7lb in hand but the early price of 10/11 is too short given his history. Had he been 7/4 or bigger I would have backed him. He is without doubt the most likely winner from the yard over the weekend.
No Bet Recommended Bet High Degree 5.15 Pontefract Sunday.
Also on Sunday at 4.15 the inconsistent Darzah comes up against old rival Luna Celeste for a third consecutive race. Having beat the Tom Clover filly readily at Newmarket in the rematch at Nottingham the form was reversed to the tune of 8 lengths. The 6 day turn around that afternoon is a valid excuse.
Quisana and Si Grass are potential improvers in the field of five – there is just too much guesswork involved to merit a bet.
No Bet Recommended Darzah 4.15 Pontefract
Good luck if you’re betting over the weekend.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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