Other than Lady Rosalind taking up an engagement in the big Tattersalls sales race at Newmarket– she is a big outsider and is not a betting proposition – this Saturday sees Somerville Lodge concentrating on York.
Each week since Royal Ascot I have warned about the poor Saturday record for the yard because of the continued firm ground. At York this weekend the ground will be on the soft side of good, which will not be entirely in favour of Lake Forest but if there is no further rain after Thursday it may dry back sufficiently to give him a chance of going one better than last year in the Group 1 City of York Stakes.
On Friday the yards runners continued to all ran well, as they have all week, to suggest that there is a good chance of Somerville Lodge finally having a good weekend.
Our two main bets at York Maltese Cross 9/4 and Silver Lake ( 3/1-11/10) have both been landed and a level of confidence has returned from a punting perspective. I have chosen to keep stakes small , given the ultra competitive nature of the racing and the likelihood of drying ground.
A fabulous afternoon of racing starts with the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at 1.50 with the stable double handed with the improving King of Earth and the enigmatic Saber Strike.
King of Earth has a huge task and on figures will need to find about 20lb to get involved. He will like some cut in the ground but it will be a major surprise if he were to win.
That surprise given his total lack of desire to make any sort of effort will also apply if Saber Strike were to suddenly decide to run in a race the way he gallops at home and win. The tongue tie is fitted but the blinkers were on for the first time on his last run and they made no difference. This must be his last chance before the gelding operation is the only option.
His brother the Ballydoyle trained Marco Polo maintained the family tradition on Friday when despite being heavily backed to win the Gimcrack found nothing under pressure and finished nearer last than first.
The Saber Strike losses suffered at Ascot and York have been written off and he is not a horse to trust.
No Bets
A Melrose ran on Good to Soft ground following 10 weeks of fast conditions that coincided with the rapid improvement shown by well bred staying 3yo colts leaves this contest open for a shock.
Infraad primarily because it is housed at Somerville Lodge is the talking horse coming into the contest and is 4/1 jt fav with Joseph O’Brien’s Limestone one of the few with experience on a soft side. Both are well drawn in stalls 4 and 6. The Haggas colt was impressive at Goodwood and the Somerville Lodge maestro knows exactly what it takes to win a Melrose, with 3 successes in the last 12 years a record matched by Andrew Balding who relies on Mythical Bay who should like the ground and is 11/1.
Such is the belief in Infraad at Somerville Lodge that I cannot let him run unbacked. There is so much doubt about the strength of his rivals that I will a cautious approach. If he wins well he may well take his chance in the St Leger with Maltese Cross likely to be heading for the Arc.
Bet 1pt win Infraad 2.25 York.
Lake Forest will need conditions to dry out which now looks likely and he can go one better than his 2nd place in this race 12 months ago. If the forecast is correct and there is no rain after Thursday afternoon, because York dries so well it is not inconceivable that by 3.00pm Saturday the ground will be good.
If that is the case Lake Forest has a major chance of winning and with an each way price likely he is well worth interest to capture another Group 1 prize for the yard.
Bet: 0.5pt ew Lake Forest 3.00pm York if ground no worse than Good to Soft.
Onto the Ebor and Haggas sends out a couple of runners- the top weight Opportunity and the 3yo Klassleader. The ease in the ground has been essential for Klassleader and our 10/1 Ante-Post gamble placed after he bolted up in the Ebor Trial in May had looked doubtful with every hot summers day since , but the rain has arrived and a draw in the centre of the field gives him chance to land the Haggas plan, probably conceived back in the Autumn of 2025. He probably could have done with more rain.
Betting wise I am happy with the already advised 2pt win Ante Post bet at 10/1 in what is a race that along with Klassleader features runners trained by Willie Mullins ( Love me Tender) and Joseph O’Brien (Emit) who could also be very well handicapped.
Bet: Already Advised 2pt win Klassleader 10/1 Ante Post 3.35 York
Finally for Somerville Lodge in the 6f Sprint Handicap at 16.10, Realign has what would normally be considered a good draw in Stall 2 in what is in effect a re-run of the Stewards Cup, with two big differences being the track and the ground.
If you have chance look back at his win at Carlisle. His next two runs were on ground that was too fast and he was never placed to challenge. He is back down to a mark just 2lb higher than that Carlisle win and he must have a great chance at big odds
On the drying ground I will be very hopeful that if the low draw is not a disadvantage on Good or Good to Soft ground Realign can turn round the Stewards Cup form with those that dominate the market on Saturday.
These are his conditions and 16/1 is way to big with 1-6 places on offer
Bet: 0.5pt EW Realign 16.10 York 16/1 – 1-6 places
Klassleader bids for Ebor Glory on Saturday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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