An excellent York for Somerville Lodge and finally a big race Saturday winner thanks to the win of IFRAAD in the Melrose. That was backed up by excellent runs by Lake Forest and Opportunity who looks a very good bet in the Irish St Leger.
I would not write off Klassleader and it looks very much like he needs genuine soft round as Haggas suggested, I also thought Realign was not given a hard race and could well pick up a sprint handicap in the Autumn.
No slow down in the Group race action on Sunday after York, where two of the toughest fillies in training at Somerville Lodge bid to add further black type and value in the paddocks when they pull stumps on their racing careers probably at the end of the season. William Haggas will be happy after York and his Birthday celebrations can be further enhanced with two group race victorys on Sunday.
In Deauville, Santorini Star has already added one Group 2 race to her page this season but has twice been denied a Group 1 and a second Group 2 victory by narrow margins at Longchamp and at Goodwood last time out. On all three occasions she has been battling back tenaciously only for the line to come just in time for her conquerors.
Her rivals on Sunday should be warned that taken her on in a fight can have dire consequences for their future. Caballo De Mar is a shadow of the horse that touched her off in Longchamp in May and Consent who beat her last season in Paris on Arc Weekend has taken on her twice since and both times has been beaten out of sight.
Santorini Star will be the market leader but the improving Joseph O’Brien trained Defiantly and the French trained Double Major ensure this is no penalty kick. The presence of Defiantly who will have to set a good gallop to have any chance of beating Santorini Star should play into Tom Marquand’s hands and he can wait until the furlong marker before having too much speed for her 5 rivals.
Bet: Santorini Star 1.33 Deauville ( see below)
William Haggas has targeted the Group 3 Ballygowan Stakes at Naas seeing it as an ideal opportunity to gain Black Type for his fillies and mares. As always he was quick to seize an opportunity. Since 2022 when the race moved to its current date in the calendar with the race taking place the day after the York Ebor meeting closes, he has sent three fillies across the Irish Sea and has been successful on two occasions.
The timing is significant with a lot of the top Group class sprinters taking their place in the Nunthorpe it leaves the door open for high quality fillies, just below Group 1 level to pick up a valuable prize.
That looks to be the case again this year with the top rated from the initial entries Time For Sandels thankfully taking the York option on Friday as she would have been a good thing here based on her very unlucky 4th place in the Nunthorpe.
A field of just 8 goes to post, but there will be plenty of pace and it leaves the door open for the Haggas mare First Instinct, who is top rated on Timeform with only two serious rivals both 3yo’s – the Course and Distance winner Donnacha O’Brien trained Havana Anna and Karl Burke’s Soul Love. The latter, was behind First Instinct on her last race at York. The form could not have worked out any better with the winner Flora of Bermuda, and the 4th placed American Queen joining Soul Love in winning on their next outing.
First Instinct is just below Group 1 level but she has already won a Group 3 and it is significant that she is sent to win another contest at this level rather than go for Group 1 black type. She is a great horse to follow always giving 100% and goes on any ground. She proved at York that 6f is now probably her best trip. The two 3yo’s have scope to improve past her, especially Havana Anna who is lightly raced this season after being highly tried as a juvenile.
She was very disappointing on her last outing when sent off at only 3/1 for the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh after finishing 4th in the Commonwealth Cup. The Donnacha O’Brien yard has only been operating at a 10% strike rate all summer. Sometimes, when these fast fillies go off the boil they take a lot of getting back- last year’s winner of this race for William Haggas Sky Majesty being a perfect case in point this season.
First Instinct seems bomb proof to conditions and always gives her running, despite not being robust physically. By Bated Breath out of the 115 rated Proportional she has taken after her sire as the dam’s other winners have all needed 12f+.
Her bloodline dates back to the great Dancing Brave and she is closely related to Buffer Zone winner of 8 races Viadera 6 wins and Sacred Bridge a winner of 5 races. All achieved an RPR of 108 or higher and were awarded their highest mark over 6f. First Instinct has won 4 but is already the highest rated.
With her form and attitude she will be very well sort after when she retires to the paddocks. Haggas has already done a marvelous job for her owner/ breeders the Dunchuch Lodge Stud and another win on Sunday will only enhance her already considerable value. The owners have another potential group filly trained at Somerville Lodge -the Rockfel stakes entered Ayr winner –Next of Kin following in her hoof prints.
Bet: 1pt win Double Santorini Star 1.33 Deauville & First Instinct 4.00 Naas Sunday
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