Thursday – Desert Treasure ran much better but lack of AW experience proved her undoing and she narrowly failed to get back into the winners enclosure.
Our decision not to bet this week has paid off and with the expectation of 5 or 6 bets over the bank holiday – Friday is another day when patience is the best policy.
Another day when hope more than expectation is the theme for Somerville Lodge and although all 4 runners cannot be written off, the terms and conditions they will run under make it difficult to advise any bets.
Goodwood now looks set to miss the worst of the rain for their Friday evening fixture and it may even be ran on Good to Firm going.
First to go to post is Art Dealer in the best race of the day at Thirsk in the 6f Class 3yo handicap at 4.00. The contest has attracted a large field of 20. The 3yo like many others has been waiting for better ground and has only had one outing this season when he ran well enough to be 2nd at Chester despite pulling very hard in the early stages of the contest.
He was put 1lb by the handicapper to a mark of 86. The form of the race has not worked out and that reaffirms the belief that on his 2yo form he is not well handicapped. He has the scope to improve but would need to do so by at least 5lb to figure in this ultra competitive handicap. He is drawn in the middle of the field with the pacesetters drawn low. He will be a decent price but I believe he will do well to make the frame even with 5 places on offer each way. If the forecast rain doesn’t arrive before the start of racing he may well be withdrawn as was the case at Leicester on his last intended start.
Bet ? No
At Goodwood two fillies tackle handicaps restricted to their own sex and both look to have big obstacles to overcome. Brighton Belle goes first In the 5.10 Class 4 over 10f. A highly competitive field of 13 head to post with 8 of them 3yo’s that look to be improving. Apart from her rivals the main issue for Brighton Belle , is her size -she is small and if the race turned into a slog she may struggle to get home carrying 9’7′.
Bet ? No
Kissmehoneyhoney will have no problem with soft ground nor carrying her weight of 10’2 in the 12f handicap at 5.45 as she is a big filly with plenty of scope. However if Goodwood remained fast that may be an issue. Her main problem is that she is the only 4yo in the field with all her rivals 3yo’s getting a hefty 9lb weight for age allowance, which is a big advantage for the classic generation as we head into September
All 8 rivals look to have potential to improve beyond their current marks and I expect at least two possibly three of them to be too good for the Haggas lightly raced 4yo.
Bet ? No
At Sandown in the 10f handicap that closes the card at 5.20 Sharp Move makes his handicap debut on only his 4th start at the age of 4.
He has had issues that have restricted his opportunities. He looked potentially very useful when winning a Newcastle novice last Autumn by 7L and the Somerville Lodge team would have been happy with a handicap mark of 80 after that performance. Unfortunately he ran no sort of race on his comeback run at Southwell beaten 16L over 12f.
That trip had looked likely to be ideal but given he has been dropped to 10f Marquand possibly reported that he didn’t stay. As is the case with Kissmehoneyhoney at Goodwood he comes up against improving 3yo’s getting a significant weight for age allowance.
David Menuisier has had a torrid season but his 3yo filly Oh Yes You Do was sent off 9/4 favourite in the Salisbury race won by Silver Lake from a mark of 75. She ran no sort of race – but if Silver Lake was in this race off a mark of 75 she would be 4/11 on. If Oh Yes You Do is back to anywhere her best she will take all the beating. Sharp Move is probably the best chance of a win, on another day when it is better to wait for opportunities later in the week.
Bet ? no
No Bets at all this week so far – plenty of entries over the weekend including Bank Holiday Monday. Possibly 2 x 3pt bets on Saturday and Monday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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