Plus 20/1 Ante Post Recommendation.
The uncertainty over the amount of rainfall expected over the next 72 hours makes betting over the Bank Holiday weekend precarious.
On Saturday possibly due to less than the anticipated rain in the South, William Haggas has only declared 7 from the 19 entries. My initial thoughts on Monday was that 3 stood out as possible bets and all three are among the 7 declarations .
It still looks likely that racing will take place on Saturday on ground on the soft side of good. Although there is significant rain forecast during the day and Windsor on Saturday evening and Sunday maybe a different story.
The first factor to catch my eye was that Tom Marquand was booked to ride at Windsor rather than Sandown or Goodwood. Principally to ride Tenability in the Windsor Stakes and also to ride Bulletsnap in the 2yo Novice Stakes.
I will go through the 7 runners meeting by meeting – starting with Windsor.
Both the bets will increase in confidence if the forecast rain throughout the day arrives. Some where between 6-20mm is predicted anything over 10mm will be perfect and the ground will be Good to Soft.
The Somerville Lodge 2yo’s have been slower to strike form this season however in the last 10 days the signs have been encouraging that they are now on track. In previous years you could pay for Christmas backing the yards 2yo’s under certain conditions in August.
The overall strike rate of 2yo’s in August trained by Haggas over the past 6 years is over 25%. That increases to 35% if only backing the 1,2,3 in the market and by ignoring horses on their first outing the strike rate increases to 41% (this was the money spinner)
Given the poor strike rate of the yard it was perhaps not surprising that at the start of this month the first 4 qualifiers were beaten, there was no option but to sit and watch until the pattern returned to normal. This is now the case with 4 out of the next 5 winning. This week I correctly took a view on Regalism and Perfect Strike, that they had showed insufficient on their debut outings and were priced up outside the first 3 in the market. Both were backed in so went off within the first 3 but they didn’t warrant backing.
The 2yo at the top of my list to back this August was Bulletsnap and thankfully he races for the 3rd time at Windsor on Saturday in the 2yo Novice which opens the meeting at 4.30pm. Soft ground shouldn’t be an issue and I am delighted to see a field of ten which should ensure we get a decent price.
Bulletsnap was entered in the Coventry Stakes but didn’t take up the option and was sold to one of Somerville Lodge’s leading owners Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum. The form of his first run for the new owners at Doncaster has been boosted by the winner who has won both his subsequent outings including in listed company.
That afternoon Bulletsnap was drawn on the wing and I thought he shaped like the best horse in the race finishing with plenty of running left beaten just over 1L in 4th. Aside from the winner Quest for Stars nothing else has yet to run apart from the Gerrys Darling who was last beaten over 10l. He subsequently has won a maiden and finished 3rd in a Nursery off a mark of 71.
Quest for Stars is now rated 93 and Bulletsnap has been given a rating of 80 which could be extremely attractive if he goes the Nursery route as it suggests he may have around 10lb in hand.
This race has a habit of throwing up high quality horses. Division was runner up in 2025 and Double Rush in 2024. Past winners include Trefor and the Group 3 winner Heredia.
Bulletsnap has drawn stall 10 which on Soft ground is ideal I would expect Marquand to edge across towards the far rail and get cover behind what looks likely to be a strong pace.
The form of the win of the likely market leader Crown and Two at Newmarket and another likely to be at the head of the market Arthur Carrot looks flimsy. Nothing in the field looks to have the potential to run to a level in the 90’s and it will have to be a below par run for the son of Minzaal to get beat. I expect him to be heavily backed.
Bet? YES 2pts ***Bulletsnap 4.30 Windsor
On the same card Tenability takes up the entry in the listed August Stakes at 6.30 in preference to Al Aasy who heads to Deauville on Sunday.
Tenability has to give 3lb to the likes of Ghostwriter, Silawi and White Birch running for the first time for trainer Jamie Osborne. Because of the weight concession The available price of 4/1 is great value and provides a degree of each way cover, in case one of the afore mentioned three is on a going day.
Tenability is tough and ultra reliable with a strong possibility that the best is yet to come from this 4yo gelding. He ran a good race in defeat in a Group 3 race in Deauville, last time out, when he was held up in a race ran at a very slow pace.
That will not be the case on Saturday evening with Ambiente Friendly and Respond certain to ensure a fast pace from the outset.
A lot of rain is forecast at Windsor on Saturday if the forecasters are wrong and it misses the Berkshire track-he maybe withdrawn which was the case in Group 2 Princess of Wales stakes. In retrospect it looked like a major chance missed with the winner Rebels Romance, now retired, probably not running to within 10lb of his best.
At first glance on the ratings this looks a tough task for Tenability – the 4yo though is still open to a great deal of improvement and looks capable of winning at Group 2 level. There is every chance he can follow on from the likes of Hamish, Al Aasy and Dubai Honour as a multi-miliion pound stakes winner for the yard over the next 4 other 5 years.
In a competitive running of the race he faces 8 rivals most of which have questions to answer. I expect Tenability to be too tough and take this listed prize before moving exclusively into Group company and probably a tilt at the Group 2 Cumberland Lodge stakes at Ascot.
Bet ? Yes 1pt EW** Tenability 6.30 Windsor
Sandown
Two head to post at Sandown including the soft ground loving Crown of Oaks in the feature Class 2 10f handicap at 2.10. The 4yo ran very poorly on his only run this season when he dropped out tamely on fast ground in a Group 2 contest at the Curragh. That was his first race for 8 months and there was a level of market support to suggest that connections have retained plenty of faith in him.
He is back in handicap company on Saturday and from a mark of 104 he is not in anyway poorly handicapped.
I have a sneaky feeling that a tilt at the Cambridgeshire is his target this Autumn. The race has been won five times in the past 12 years by horses rated 103 or higher. His front running victory in last years Balmoral off a mark of 99 on ground that was too fast more than suggested he could win a Cambridgeshire off 104. Connections had a look at the Lincoln but decided to wait and the fact that his run on Saturday, only his second this term is just 4 weeks before Newmarket – is perfect timing. if he is beaten but runs well the Cambridgeshire looks the right next target. If he wins on Saturday the 5lb penalty will rule him out as a likely winner of the big Newmarket handicap .
Crown off Oaks is currently priced up at 20/1 the same price as the other main Somerville Lodge entries Eklleem and Bullet Point. If he runs well on Saturday I expect him to be the No 1 entry for the yard and given his connections, significantly cut in the Ante-Post market, possibly into single figures.
Bet ? No Saturday
But 0.5pt Each Way 20/1 1-4 Places W Hill, Corals and Ladbrokes Cambridgeshire Newmarket September 26th 2026.
In the opener at 1.40 Alannah Bananah makes her debut in the fillies Novice. By Too Darn Hot she has a stamina laden pedigree on her dams side and is a filly that will be better with time as a 3yo.
Bet ? No
Goodwood
The meeting that is forecast to possibly miss the rain but it is course where monsoon conditions can spring from nowhere and it is advisable to wait until checking conditions on Saturday morning before wagering.
High Degree having finally won for the first time at Pontefract on Sunday is turned out again in the 12f Handicap off a 4lb higher mark of 95 at 2.35.
His win was achieved with the aid of first time blinkers and perhaps more significantly dropped down to Class 3 level.
He showed great resolution at Pontefract and despite going up in trip I am certain this will be another forceful ride from the front by Cieren Fallon. The question is can he cope with the rise back to a Class 2.
The formbook on his run over 8f in a Class 2 contest at Sandown behind Beagle Boy and Raammee from a mark of 92 suggests that it won’t be a problem especially if the blinkers have improved his attitude.
He will also get the run of the race, and it is possible that Fallon will get a soft lead and dictate the race in exactly the same way as he did earlier this season at this track with Yabher in the same ownership, who ran away with a similar contest over 10f.
In an interview on Wednesday Fallon appeared very confident that High Degree would improve for the step up in trip. If he stays I think he will win and follow up his Pontefract success. The money for him in every race this season confirms the fact he is considered to be a 100+ horse. Now with a win under his belt he can justify that belief.
Bet ? Yes 1pt win
Finally Somerville Lodge send two 3yo fillies in chase of the 50,000 Guaranteed prize in a Class 2 fillies Novice at 3.45
This is another race on the day that has been won by some classy horses. Estrange won it on her debut in 2024. Haggas won it with Bartzella a Golden Horn filly on her debut and she returned to the track 3 runs later to win a listed race and was rated 101.
I would be very certain that neither Evening Calls or Chimes of Thunder is anywhere near the class of Estrange or Bartzella and it is race to watch.
Bet ? No
Tenability still improving and can win August Stakes on Saturday
Chrysalis Consortium 
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