The forecast rain has arrived and with 10mm plus expected in the London area the going at Windsor and Sandown will surely ride Soft.
This is excellent news for the Somerville Lodge runners. n the August stakes Tenability has been backed from 4/1 – 7/2 a price which held up because of the ‘gamble’ on Warrant Holder 11/2 – 3/1- although most of it is probably due to the jockey booking. Looking through the form and his pedigree on the Dam’s side Warrant Holder looks really unlikely to be at his best with cut in the ground. I have backed Tenability again and expect him to return around 5/2.
In the Windsor opener at 4.30 I was very surprised the 5/2 Bulletsnap lasted as long as it did – that has now disappeared and with the rain also a bonus he may well be sent off around 6/4. There has again be Billy Loughnane inspired money for Arthur Carrot.
High Degree in the 14.35 at Goodwood has been backed from 11/4 to as short as 13/8. There is less rain forecast At Goodwood, either way it will not be an issue but I would be surprised if he continues to shorten any further.
In the valuable fillies novice at 3.45 Evening Call has been heavily backed because of the softening ground which should suit her based on her pedigree. That will also help with the 10f trip which looks a minimum for her to be at her best. The form of all those with experience is very much of a muchness and I suspect the money has come down to the ‘Haggas’ fear factor amongst the bookmakers. Evening Call may win but its a guessing game ?
At Sandown in the opener the filly Alanah Bananah is as anticipated a drifter out to 12/1. In the 2.15 Crown of Oaks has been supported which is not surprising with the wet conditions. I am going to tough it out and stick with my view that the Cambridgeshire is his main target and he will need the race today.
However, the horse defied logic when winning the Balmoral last season and I could easily have got the gelding wrong again.
Crown of Oaks will benefit from Soft Ground at Sandown this. afternoon.
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