Regular readers will be well aware that part of my obsession with Somerville Lodge horses is the trackable data and recurring patterns that can provide significant indicators of the chances of the yard’s runners.
That applies not only when the trends are positive, but also when they point firmly in the opposite direction. The stable’s record at the two big Newmarket autumn festivals is sufficiently poor that there has to be an outstanding reason to support a Haggas-trained horse across the two fixtures.
Zooming – 1.50
First up is Zooming, who drops back to 6f and into what looks a weak Class 2 handicap at 1.50.
She races from 94 here but can run from 92 from Saturday. Somerville Lodge has been ill-fated with the draw at Newmarket and, once again, their runner has been allocated stall 1.
The high numbers and stands’ side appeared to hold a significant advantage last weekend, and there are no obvious grounds for believing that Zooming can become the first Somerville Lodge runner this century to win a 6f handicap during the autumn season on the Rowley Mile. The current record stands at 0-9.
Verdict: No Bet
Not My Type – 2.25
From a trends perspective, the one ray of light at the Autumn meetings is the stable’s record in nurseries, standing at 6-20.
However, in the 2.25 over 5f, Not My Type has again been poorly drawn in stall 2.
She reappears after a moderate effort in a Listed contest at Ripon and, although this represents a drop in class, the race looks equally competitive. She is 8/1 in the early markets, which looks about right.
Verdict: No Bet
Mezzo Forte – 3.00
The Group 3 Somerville Stakes is a long way from being the strongest renewal of the race, and Mezzo Forte must have a reasonable chance of coping with the step up in grade.
The biggest factor likely to ensure significant support for him is the combination of his ownership and jockey booking. He is owned by the Tabors, while Ryan Moore takes the ride, with stable jockey Tom Marquand riding for Brian Meehan.
Mezzo Forte was impressive when winning at York and, as a half-brother to Running Lion, it is not surprising that the Coolmore team are taking a keen interest.
It is also noteworthy that no Ballydoyle horse has been declared. Although this is not a race they target every year, their last winner was Wichita in 2019. Equally unusual is the absence of a Charlie Appleby runner.
I can see Mezzo Forte being heavily backed and possibly going off favourite. But is he an exception to the rule?
There is certainly an interesting historical comparison. Looking back through the Somerville Stakes winners, several have arrived at the race with very limited experience and considerable scope for improvement. Elarqam, for example, won on debut at York before landing the Somerville just 18 days later. He had no established official rating going into the race and was subsequently given a Timeform rating of 112p for his two-year-old campaign. La Barrosa followed an even more striking route in 2020, winning on debut and then taking the Somerville on his second start; Timeform subsequently raised him to 104p.
The other particularly relevant precedent is Havana Gold, who had won a 7f Novice Stakes at Ascot before progressing through Listed company and into the Somerville, which he won in 2012. By the time of the Group 3 he had an official rating of 105, so he does not fit the precise ‘unrated but 100p+’ profile, but his progression from novice company into the Somerville is nevertheless highly relevant.
More recently, Distant Storm provides another compelling example of the race rewarding an unexposed youngster. He won his maiden on debut before finishing third in the Acomb and then stepped forward markedly to win the Somerville in 2025, with Timeform rating the performance at 111 and describing it as the best Somerville performance since Modern Games in 2021.
That makes Mezzo Forte’s profile particularly interesting. He has only had two starts, having finished fifth on his debut over 6f before winning over 7f at York. His York victory came over the same trip as Thursday’s race, and he appeared to have plenty in hand when making all and winning by two and a half lengths.
The booking of Ryan Moore has to be taken seriously. His draw in 5 is fair enough and I would expect Moore to be positive on him, potentially trying to make the running and find out just how good this son of Wootton Bassett might be.
There are no proven 100+ rated 2yos in opposition and Mezzo Forte may be the runner with the greatest potential for improvement.
Maltese Cross was a rare winner for the yard at the meeting in the Novice Stakes on this day last year and perhaps Mezzo Forte can follow in his hoofprints.
He is 9/2 in the early market with William Hill. That looks fair value — but if he drifts significantly in the market, it would be a concern.
Given the woeful Somerville Lodge record in Class 1 races at the major Newmarket autumn festivals, with no winner since 2018, it makes sense to watch without support.
Verdict: No Bet
Arabian Force – 3.35
In the Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes over 2m at 3.35, Arabian Force has had more trips than Judith Chalmers and is back over 2m having run no sort of race in the Irish St Leger — his first start since being gelded.
The fact that he is second in the market behind odds-on favourite Gregory demonstrates how weak this contest looks for a Listed race.
At his best, Arabian Force has every chance and his best form is on a par with that of the odds-on market leader. However, he is towards the head of my list of horses that are “Not Totally Straight Forward”, and he has had more than enough chances.
If the gelding operation has worked, he may win on his second outing since the cut. But the fact that the race is at Newmarket in the autumn is another major reason not to back the 5yo.
Let’s not forget that horrible Class 1 statistic.
Verdict: No Bet
From Afar – 2.42
The Haggas 2yo record at Pontefract does not match his 3yo+ strike rate, although 2-5 since 2020 is more than respectable.
However, I do not like the fact that From Afar, who reappears in the 6f Novice Stakes at 2.42, drops back a furlong after making his debut over 7f at Ayr.
Baaeed’s first three 2yo winners have all won over 7f or further, and there seems no obvious reason for the drop back in trip.
Although his dam has produced a winner over 6f, that horse was by the sprinter Acclamation, while her other winners have all been over a mile or further.
Verdict: No Bet
Guesstimate – 8.00
Finally, Guesstimate is a 3yo filly on a recovery mission in the 8.00 at Southwell.
Unfortunately, on her last outing at Newbury she joined the list of horses that are “Not Totally Straight Forward”.
The step up in trip should suit, but she is not one I would want to trust as a betting opportunity.
Verdict: No Bet
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