Given the poor Autumn record of the yard on the Rowley Mile course backing a horse from Somerville Lodge requires a great deal of deliberation. The surprise win of Zooming at 22/1 on Thursday was not backed up by Mezzo Forte or Arabian Force and caution is still required with all the stables runners at Newmarket this week. The data provides some justification that Alobayyah, so impressive when winning at Royal Ascot could buck the meeting trend and follow Beshaayir way back in 2018 as the last Somerville Lodge runner to win any group or listed race at this meeting.
Alobayyah has by far the best chance of the 3 that have been declared on Friday and the statistics from this listed event reveal she has a chance of winning this contest for fillies and mares that starts the meeting 1.15.
Haggas has sent 17 fillies this century to try and capture the 8f contest. Over half were unconsidered in the market and only two have been sent off at an SP of less than 6/1. However there have been 3 winners from a total of 10 that were sent off less than 10/1
The only market leader was Maqsad in 2019 at 9/4 – she never ran any sort of race and was beaten over 20L and never raced again.
With the stats not against Alobayyah the race conditions are also all in her favour, including the draw. On ratings she has the perennial loser Araisag to beat. If her Haydock run last time out can be forgiven – on her Ascot win in the Kensington Palace her price of 7/2 looks reasonable value. After that race when she was heavily gambled Tom Marquand commented that the victory was very straight forward and intimated that she was better class than a handicapper.
The issue is her lac-luster run at Haydock in August, where she failed to see her race out hanging to her left when put under pressure. This will only be her 7th start in 3 seasons which suggests she is not straight forward. The Haydock performance and the yards general lack of Class 1 success at this meeting makes the percentage call at the forecast price of 3/1 to let her run unbacked.
Verdict : No Bet
Fances Ethel tackles another fillies and mares contest the Group 3 Princess Royal stakes at 1.50. Haggas has had seven attempts at landing this prize. Three 3rd placed finishes are the nearest he has come to success.
Frances Ethel is as tough as they come and will run her race and could well match the place finish achieved by Sea Silk Road and Sea La Rosa in 2022 and 2021.
If stablemate Earth Shot, Johannes Walsh or Diamond Necklace were in this race running under the same terms as Inis Mor who is closely matched with all three I suspect they would be around Even money. Due to the poor form of the yard Inis Mor is on offer at a huge price of 5/2 – on Wednesday the David Menuisier yard broke its barren spell and she will take all the beating, as a Group 1 horse in this Group 3.
Verdict No Bet Recommended
The Wathnan owned colt Quorum is a very interesting 2yo debutant in the 4.10 Novice Stakes. I never back any 2yo from the yard first time out but the son of Kingman is very well bred and will attract attention in the market. The record on the Rowley Mile in the Autumn is 3-31 – the last debutant to win here was Orchid Bloom in October 2022.
Verdict No Bet
Only one other runner on Friday at Haydock on Friday and another 2yo debutant the 400,000 Y New Years Eve on the 7f Novice at 3.08.
If there is a track to back Haggas 2yo’s on debut it is Haydock where he tends to send the most promising types. Sharaad won here first time out as did Lake Forest and Desert Hero. The overall stable record since 2021 is 5-23 but New Years Eve has a pedigree that suggests he will need time and a longer distance to be at his best and I will stick to my No bet debutant rule.
Verdict No Bet
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