The big weekend started well with the win of Infraad in the listed race at Ascot. Although the big gambles on Princling and Rhapsody in St Cloud didn’t come off. Luckily I chose just to watch both although it would be nice if Mikael Barcelona repeats his ride on Rhapsody aboard Daryz on Sunday.
17 runners over the weekend. The first couple run in the opener at Newmarket on Saturday at 12.25 and ends with the attempt by Maltese Cross to win the Arc De Triomphe on Sunday at 3.05.
Albaydaa 1.15 Ascot
First Instinct 1.50 Ascot
Al Aasy – Tenability 2.25 Ascot
Elmonjed – Division 3.00 Ascot
Thunder Call – Realign 3.35 Ascot
Hoseki – Seren Star 12.25 Newmarket
Carbine Country 1.00 Newmarket
Procyon 14.45 Newmarket
Earth Shot – Santorini Star 15.25 Longchamp
Wild Dahlia 16.35 Redcar
Lake Forest 22.48 Keeneland
Sunday – Maltese Cross 3.05 Longchamp
The 12 races involved include 5 with double entries for the yard – the 6 horses highlighted stand out as having major chances of success.
Very unusually at this time of year the going at all five venues will be on the fast side of good which provides a solid base for betting purposes.
In the six races across which I am considering a bet – the most significant question is the pace?
Saffie Osborne gets back on board Hoseki in the 12.25 Newmarket. She rode the 4 time winning filly to her only defeat this season at Ascot in a 12f Shergar Cup handicap and was beaten after the filly was very slowly away. The pace collapsed around half way and she was forced to swing wide as they quickened up off the bend and couldn’t make up the ground.
The performance that provides me with doubt about her chances on Saturday is her latest win dropped to 10f at Haydock on Soft ground. On that occasion Tom Marquand was able to dictate a steady tempo on a track that favors front runners. He also had the knowledge that he was on a filly with plenty of stamina and made use of this and kicked for home 4f out and never looked like being caught.
10f on fast ground at Newmarket is another matter even though it is a track that suits pacesetters, the presence of Pendella, whose form with Silver Lake cannot be underestimated, and Lady Dora Mae will ensure Hoseki does not make the running. The Haggas record at Newmarket in the Autumn although slightly improved by the 22/1 win of Zooming and Alobayyah last weekend is still well below average and at short odds I won’t be backing Hoseki.
In the same race Seren Star seems to have completely lost her way since Royal Ascot and the two other Newmarket runners are 2yo’s – Carbine Country is making his debut in the 1.00 and Procyon in the 2.45.
At Ascot Haggas contests 5 races with double entries in 3 races.
Albaydaa despite consistently being placed has been disappointing with only a Class 3 handicap win to her name this season. She faces a very stiff task at Ascot in the Listed 7f opener at 1.15, which looks at the mercy of So Regal.
The same scenario can be applied to First Instinct in the 1.50 who has generally disappointed this season and will need a major upturn in form to be involved in the finish of the listed Rous stakes.
The next 3 Ascot races all offer clear winning opportunities. Starting with Tenability in the Cumberland Lodge. His second in the race last season to the 3 time winner of the race Al Qareem proved that he was more than able to make the step up from handicapper to stakes horse. That has been ratified this year with two listed race successes and placed twice at Group 3.
His main danger will be stablemate Al Aasy but he has to give 5lb to Tenability who looks to have that and more in hand of the 4 other rivals.
It’s a big day for Harry Davies and he should be able to set the pace and make all.
I will back him if I can get 7/4 or bigger.
Another horse that has a few pound ahead of his rivals is Division the mount of Danny Tudhope in the Group 3 Bengough Stakes at 3.00.
He is a horse that is very unlucky not to have won a Group 1 contest this season and the drop down to a Group 3 provides him with a perfect opportunity to get his first win of the campaign. Tudhope who rides him for the first time will need to be sharp at the gates as he can be a tardy starter and the low draw in Stall 2 has looked to be a disadvantage on the opening day of the meeting. I cannot back him at 2/1 given the likelihood that it will be again the case on Saturday.
Harry Davies is aboard Elmonjed well drawn in 10 he comes back off a break after a rare no show on his last outing and usually needs a race to sharpen him up. Neither horse can be backed with confidence given the high draw bias on Friday.
William Haggas has won the valuable Challenge Cup Handicap on two occasions. In 2021 Aldaary won from stall 2 and in 2007 pulled off a remarkable feat of training winning the race with the ex South African horse Candidato Roy who won from stall 1 at 50/1 on only his 2nd start for the yard.
The fast improving Thunder Call has drawn Stall 1 has been a big provider of profits this season and aims to give Harry Davies another winner on the Ascot straight mile after his Hunt Cup win for James Owen at the Royal meeting.
There could be a sting in the tail with the stables other runner Realign who has looked like a horse more than capable of winning a big handicap this year but has only flattered to deceive on his last 5 outings.
As with Division the low draw and short price for Thunder Call makes it poor advice to recommend him as bet – he will drift probably to as big as 4/1.
At Redcar Wild Dahlia has had a disappointing season and the handicapper has shown no mercy to her leaving her on a mark of 75. The 8f contest at 4.35 is ultra competitive and her chances of success have been hampered by a draw in stall 1 which means she will need to come around the whole field to get a run. She is unlikely to get her first win on 2026.
In Paris on Saturday at 15.25 Earth Shot and Santorini Star take their chances in the 14f Prix Royallieu. The complexion of the race has been turned inside out by the withdrawal of the Grafford trained Sunly from the Arc to run in this contest. As a consequence the Haggas pair have each way chances only.
On Saturday night Lake Forest runs in the Coolmore Turf Mile at 22.48. He is likely to 3rd best in the market Rhetorical and Zulu Kingdom. The set up of the race on fast ground and drawn in stall 7 is perfect and if I can get the early morning line odds of 4/1 or bigger he is an each way bet to nothing in the nine runner field. He will get a fierce pace to aim at.
He travels to USA for the first time with a good deal of stable confidence behind him. If all goes well he will stay in America to take his chance in the Breeders Cup mile and renew rivalry with Notable Speech.
I will back Lake Forest each way if I can get odds of 4/1 or bigger.
Finally a comment on Maltese Cross.
At Longchamp last year all 4 runners from Somerville Lodge on Arc day had draws that were impossible to win from, at least Maltese Cross in 11 has a chance to overcome the setback.
The draw has been against Somerville Lodge nearly all season and this weekend is no exception with the three runners at Ascot Saturday on the straight course all drawn low and Maltese Cross draw in stall 11. It is not helpful as it exacerbates the big issue which is the lack of pace in the race.
That will benefit the favourite Daryz who has the natural speed to cope with that scenario. However, the fact remains that in the Prince of Wales Minnie Hauk reversed the form of the Arc and the form of last year’s race which is the lowest rated this century has not been boosted. A genuine 130 rated horse is likely to beat any of that field, if Grafford is right that horse is an improved Daryz.
The belief in the Haggas camp is Maltese Cross has progressed to be a 130+ 3yo. The draw though probably means he has to be 133. The horses that have won the Arc in recent years not necessarily drawn high but as the race developed were running in a track position which a double figure draw requires are: Ace Impact, Golden Horn and Treve. All three are considered among the best to win the race and achieved a rating of 133 or higher.
I think the draw means that Marquand will be required to make the potentially race winning move within the first 20 secs of the race. The faster the pace the more likely he is to go forward and tuck in after 4f as Frankie Dettori did on Golden Horn. If it is slow he will probably have no option but to ride for luck get tucked in as best he can and then ride Maltese Cross for speed in the home straight.
I think he will drift in the market to around 7/1 and I will top up the Ante Post bet with another 1pt ew bet with 4 places available. I will not go maximum.
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