Arc weekend typified the normal helter-skelter for team Somerville Lodge. At least Hoseki and Al Aasy provided two winners on Saturday but the draw at Ascot nullified the chances of Division and Thunder Call but in the Challenge Cup Realign who was backed from 20/1 into 12/1 goes down as one of the unluckiest losers of the season.
I had tempered my betting over the two days due to very poor value and question marks over the pace and poor draws for the Haggas horses. That proved a good decision as both Tenability odds on for most of the day and Lake Forest in Keeneland never bigger than 9/4 – both were undone by no pace in their races.
Then in the Arc Maltese Cross did very well to finish 6th after getting very worked up in the preliminaries and forcing Tom Marquand to break out of the parade, having to go to post far too quickly and then pulling too hard throughout the first 4f of the race. Even at his best he would have struggled to beat Daryz who goes down as one of the best winners of the race this century.
The Racing Post confirmed this with its post race commentary of owner George Waud: ‘Any hope of a result fit for the big screen started to ebb away before the race had begun.
“Maltese Cross is usually such a level-headed horse and handles the occasion so well, but he broke the parade before the race, took off and it wasn’t the greatest start for him mentally,” said Waud.
“He seemed to have calmed down before they went into the stalls and Tom Marquand did an amazing job to position him where he was, but I think all the theatrics before the race and the effort to get across from stall 11 took it out of him.”
The wind down to the end of the season begins on Monday with the aim of hoping to improve the sales price of horses entered in the Tattersalls Autumn Sales and gaining experience for future stars-a big team of 7 runners from Somerville Lodge race on Monday.
Tom Marquand heads to Yarmouth for 4 rides the first two on very well bred fillies Endearment by Sea The Stars and Faithful by Baaeed in the 2yo Stakes races over 8f and 7f at 1.50 and 2.25.
The Yarmouth meetings in the Autumn has seen Haggas introduce very useful horses in the current decade, high quality horses such as Aldaary, Almeraq, Alobayyah, Rhapsody and Power Fizz all won or ran well here as 2yo’s in October.
Endearment and Faithful are both are bred to stay middle distance , Faithful is out of Bound a sister to the Derby winner Serpentine.
Three of the runners at the meeting are owned by Lordship Stud, the 2yo Faithful is joined by Evening Call in the Novice stakes at 3.35 and Venetian Sky in the Class 4 handicap that closes the card at 4.40.
Yamana a 1.5 million purchase by Juddmonte trained by Ralph Beckett , the first foal of Ville De Grace the mare Lordship Stud paid 2,000,000 gns for, was disappointing on debut and they will be looking for their fillies to get on the score sheet.
Both have been slow learners and yet to win . Evening Call was well backed at Goodwood but got stuck in the mud and she may well bounce back. The support that afternoon came, possibly because through her dam she looked likely to relish the soft ground. Although on her sires side through Ifraaj there is a clear preference for faster conditions.
I will watch the market and if it swings in favor of the Haggas filly I may have an interest.
Venetian Sky looked ready to win before getting beaten on very firm ground at Leicester before totally blowing out on the AW at dreaded Kempton Park last time out. When she stumbled and lost her chance at Chester the subsequent form of that performance strongly suggests that without the mishap she would have won.
She is capable of pulling off a surprise- but on the balance of her form winning a Class 4 looks tough. Ideally she will show some promise here and be placed to win her race on the coming months in a Class 5. She is a drifter in the early markets out to around 10/1.
At Kempton Ceiren Fallon rides My Masai a Wootton Basset 2yo colt that is related to lots of winners, in the opener at 4.10 and Magic Box looks to boost her sales price in the handicap at 16.45. She has little chance on the form of her 3 runs so far this season. I broke my rule about not betting in Kempton handicaps with Venetian Lion last week and the reason he was beaten was down to the exact reason I had put the rule in place.
It was a stupid mistake that I won’t be repeating.
I will recommending mostly small stakes bets between now and of the end of the season but will provide followers with additional detail so you can assess whether to follow me in or not.
The 7th and final runner on Monday is Caraway in the 12f Wolverhampton Class 6 handicap at 8.00. She couldn’t cope with the rise in grade to a Class 4 at Yarmouth and ran as though needing the race after a break.
She was a desperately unlucky loser over this course and distance in May and duly made amends in a better race than this next time out in a Class 5 at Thirsk. The form of that run is far better than anything achieved by her rivals on Monday and she is now only 3lbs higher.
She should probably have won at least 1 more this summer but this is a race that looks hers for the taking based on the known form of her 11 rivals in this 12f contest. There are three scenarios that may turn against us.
- At this time of year Fillies can go over the top.
This is her 9th race of the year but only her 2nd since July she looked in need of the race at Yarmouth and the only way we will know is when she races
2. There are a couple of totally unexposed horses Sun Lord and Electric Gambler that could be far better than their Handicap marks.
The early markets suggest support for the Fahey trained Sun Lord. This is a stable with a horrible strike rate and never one to fear. There record at Wolverhampton this decade with 3yo’s in handicaps is around 15% (22 from 164) only one has won over 12f in 2020 but was more exposed than Sun Lord. All the other 21 winners have been thoroughly exposed.
The O’Neils have yet to train a 3yo winner of a handicap at Wolverhampton
3. The race is ran at a slow pace
As always a crucial aspect to any bet Timeform say there will be an even pace, but At the Races suggest Takeitorleaveit from 3 will get an uncontested lead. Billy Loughnane on the current market leader MMMbop from stall 4 will surely track the pace. The best chance of a strong pace will come from Gina Mangan who likes to get on with it. She is drawn in Stall 1 on Eze Sur Mer and with cheek pieces on for the first time may well go forward. The 3yo’s best run was the only time he has been ridden prominently and there seems no reason from that draw for Mangan not to revert to those tactics.
The early price of 11/2 – 5/1 represents an opportunity for an each way interest – the possibility of a slow pace means I will reduce my stake to 0.5pt ew on my only wager of the day.
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