Speaking on Nick Luck’s daily podcast after the pair bumped into each other before a flight back from Kentucky, Fallon commenting on Lake Forest’s run in Keeneland said: “Obviously, he’s always slowly away so I was always going to be in a position further back than ideal, especially when they go that slow.
“The winner controlled the race out in front, he nicked it, and we ran him down quite late on and it was quite tight around the bend where we got knocked about a little bit.
“After we went round the bend into the back straight, I knew it was going to be a hard task to run him down, especially after getting a soft lead like that, I was just hoping my lad did handle the track and learned about the track, which he did.
“We didn’t come here and expect to get a clean run round but he was very tough and I liked the way he finished. I just felt like if there’s a stronger pace it’ll set up for my lad. It sets up for good run in the Breeders’ Cup, hopefully.
“You don’t really know what kind of pace you’re going to get over here in America, especially in the turf races, they can go a strong gallop or they can go really slowly. We did talk about if they did go slow, what could we do, but there was nothing I could do with horses in front of me and next to me. If I was on the outside then maybe I could have pressed him a little bit and been a bit closer to the pace but he likes to be locked up and likes a strong pace to aim at.
“There will be more pace at the Breeders’ Cup which will suit.”
On his form with Notable Speech, Lake Forest was a good bet on his run around Keeneland, on the eve of the Arc, designed to prepare him for a tilt at the Breeders Cup Turf mile where is set to meet the Charlie Appleby star who has been his nemesis so far.
That though was assuming he would get a strong pace to aim at which looked far from certain and morning line odds of around 4/1 advertised in the USA but not available in the UK were what was required to back him. Those odds never came close to being offered in Europe with the initial; 9/4 quickly reduced to around 6/4 on race day.
In the event, as Fallon described, the pace was slow and he did well to overcome trouble to finish 2nd.
In the Breeders Cup Turf Mile Notable Speech is the 6/4 market leader and although he is the most likely winner, together with the possible presence of Blue Bolt and Gstaad, that price is way to short. He won the race impressively in 2026 but got the breaks staying to the far rail. There are a couple of occasions once in France and again earlier this season at Keeneland when thought to be a certainty, Buick got into a huge mess and was lucky not to be bought down. The racing post race commentary was:
‘Held up in last, steady headway halfway, not clear run repeatedly from over 2f out, hampered over 1f out, ran on final 110yds, not recover.’
The latest Lake Forest race was a virtual re-run of that race with the same USA opponents in opposition. Both horses were beaten around 2L.
The current betting for the Keeneland race is 6/4 Notable Speech 20/1 Lake Forest and with under four weeks to the race they are the only two European horses , barring accidents, being stated as definite runners.
When they last clashed at York in August, Notable Speech 9/4 defeated Lake Forest 6/1 by just over 2L. There is a very good chance the pair that both have valuable experience at the track could dominate in Keeneland and the 20/1 Lake Forest is simply to big to ignore. I except that a good draw, quick ground, a fast pace and luck in running will be needed for the Haggas ‘money-machine’ but that also applies to Notable Speech in a race that could cut up to a single figure field.
I have had 0.5pts EW 1,2,3 at 20/1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair he is as low as 8/1 with Bet 365.
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