The cards at Newmarket and York on Friday and Saturday offer some fantastic racing, with numerous Somerville Lodge entries providing plenty of intriguing puzzles to solve.
There are already some early prices available, which is why I have published this on Wednesday afternoon.
The only Somerville Lodge runner on Wednesday was Top Scholar, who ran as expected on debut at Nottingham. He looked as though he would benefit from a longer trip, but showed enough promise to suggest he can win races when stepped up in distance.
On Thursday, Pierian heads to Bath to chase black type in the 1m 6f fillies’ Listed contest at 3.15. She has won well over the course, but, as I have stated previously, these races – where black type is as important as actually winning – can be difficult betting contests. Pierian will need to improve by around 10lb to become seriously involved in the finish.
At Southwell, Crown Of Crowns runs for the second time over 11f at 5.30. On debut she looked as though a step up to 12f and possibly further would be required before she is ready to win races. She is not considered a betting opportunity at this stage, despite being bred to win an Arc de Triomphe!
It is no secret that William Haggas places considerable importance on winners at York, and he will be very keen to retain the track’s annual leading trainer award, which he captured from Andrew Balding in 2025.
Going into the final two-day fixture, which begins on Friday, the pair again head the standings in 2026, although Balding currently holds the advantage by 14 winners to 12.
Looking through the entries, it looks likely to be a very close finish. On Friday, Haggas sends three horses to the Knavesmire, while Balding has declared four.
Haggas has, on paper, by far the most likely winner of the day in the shape of the very promising two-year-old colt Sharaad, who has been kept in novice company for the 3.18 rather than being sent straight into Group or Listed company.
The impressive Haydock winner will be odds-on to remain unbeaten.
In the opening 1m handicap, Haggas runs recent course winner Power Fizz rather than Eternal Force, who would have needed softer ground.
I remain very interested in backing Eternal Force if he gets soft ground before the sales. The sectionals from his latest run suggest that he needed the race, at Haydock and had Fallon come inside rather than staying outside the winner Centigrade, I believe he would have finished a clear second.
If the ground at Goodwood is soft on Sunday, where Eternal Force is also entered, he looks probably the best bet of the weekend. Haggas went close to winning the race last year with the somewhat errant Regalian.
Although Power Fizz won his latest race over 7f by staying on better than his rivals, he had previously been entered in 6f handicaps and, on breeding, there is more than enough evidence to suggest that 7f may be the extent of his stamina.
The Haggas draw curse has struck again, with Power Fizz drawn in the car park in stall 17.
Those risks make backing the four-year-old ill-advised. Balding has a similar chance with the inconsistent Point Of Contact, but I expect both yards to struggle to beat Beagle Bay, the three-year-old trained by Ralph Beckett.
Beagle Bay returns after a 118-day break off a mark of 94. The form of his Sandown win over Raammee would have put him in contention for all the leading Class 2 handicaps at the summer festivals.
He needs soft ground, but if he is ready after his break, he will take all the beating.
In the 1m 6f Class 3 handicap at 2.40, Balding has two declared while Haggas relies on Gaspacho, who will be ridden by Joanne Mason.
Mason takes the ride carrying just 8st 7lb, a weight that would have been unavailable to Marquand or Fallon. She is 3-11 for Somerville Lodge over the past five years and is riding in excellent form.
I am always encouraged when Haggas runs horses that appear reasonably handicapped in a grade higher than the one in which they could run. Silver Lake is a prime example of this approach this season.
Gaspacho still qualifies to run in Class 4 contests, but Haggas is throwing the dice here, knowing that if she proves herself capable at this level, black type could be the next step.
The presence of the two Beckett colts Glory Road and Tierra Del Toro at the head of the market, both of whom have form with the Haggas-trained Infraad, ensures that this will take some winning.
If, however, Gaspacho improves by 3 or 4lb for the step up in trip, she has every chance.
By Ghaiyyath out of a mare by Motivator, whose best performance came over 14f on soft ground, Gaspacho is bred to get this trip.
Unlike many offspring of Ghaiyyath, she relaxes well in her races. Significantly, on her comeback over 10f at Leicester in September, after a year off the track, she was heavily supported, drifting from odds-on to odds-against only close to the off, when the market finally appeared to recognise that she would need the run and that the trip was too short.
For once, the early-price markets have taken a chance with a Somerville Lodge horse and the Sky Bet offer of 11/1 each-way, four places, was too big to ignore.
I have taken this price and also some of the Paddy Power 12/1 each-way, three places, for a total of around 0.75 points each-way.
It will be only Joanne Mason’s second ride for Somerville Lodge at York, and hopefully she can give us a good run for our money.
Both Haggas and Balding have entries in the majority of Saturday’s races, so the race for the York trainers’ title looks set to go right to the wire.
Caution still advised at Newmarket.
Over at Newmarket on Friday, the Haggas horses entered have to make significant improvement to feature.
Although the yard had two winners at the Cambridgeshire meeting , the overall poor strike rate at Newmarket during the autumn should still be firmly in the forefront of the mind when considering backing Somerville Lodge horses at HQ during the two major autumn festivals.
Zooming’s 22/1 victory was a complete outlier, while, as we pointed out previously, the Listed 8f fillies’ race won by Alobayyah was something of an exception to the rule.
Perfect Strike runs in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes at 1.15.
He was very impressive at Sandown, but has 10lb or more to find with at least five of his opponents. He has been given what could prove to be a good draw in stall 13.
Several of the higher-rated rivals look to be going backwards after having had a lot of tough races on fast ground.
As is the case with Gaspacho at York, Haggas could easily have taken the easier Nursery route with this two-year-old, so I would not be surprised to see Perfect Strike outrun his likely odds of around 20/1.
One of the rare handicap winners the yard has had at this meeting previously was Yabher, who was impressive in the Rowley Cup in 2025.
This year, Kahin is given the chance to boost his sales price before his date at the Autumn Sales.
He is only rated 80 in the Class 2 handicap and Saffie Osborne takes the ride with just 8st 4lb to carry.
Once again, this is a horse running in a Class higher than he needs to, but in this case I think the decision is more to do with his upcoming sale. He has only a small each-way chance reflected by his opening price of 14/1.
Haggas provides his army of followers with another dilemma by running two very talented fillies, Song Of Clouds and Silver Lake, in Class 1 company for the first time in the Group 3 Godolphin Academy Stakes over 10f at 4.45.
This is all about the opportunity to earn black type, and both fillies have more than earned their right to take on group class rivals.
They will need to improve to beat the proven fillies at this level – Legacy Link, Nocha Clasica and Touleen – but it would be no surprise if they were capable of doing so.
However, unlike the 8f Listed fillies’ race in which Alobayyah provided the yard with its fourth winner of the contest at the Cambridgeshire meeting, Somerville Lodge is 0-8 in this race.
Reluctantly, although these were two fillies I had earmarked as potential bets this month, the only sensible choice is to watch without investing.
Across the Channel at Compiègne, Christophe Soumillon has been booked to ride Chimes Of Thunder in the Listed race at 3.03 over 10f.
She should get the soft ground she enjoys, but this represents a huge step up in class. Despite the booking of Soumillon, she has only an outside chance of gaining some valuable black type.
The contrast between the two meetings is interesting.
At York, Haggas has a realistic opportunity to add significantly to his winner tally and, importantly, has found what I believe is a worthwhile early-price angle in Gaspacho together with the odds on Sharaad.
At Newmarket, however, the historical trends remain a significant concern. The two winners at the start of the month should not be allowed to obscure the much larger body of evidence concerning the yard’s autumn record at HQ.
The York trainers’ title is likely to go down to the final race, and I will cover the Saturday cards tomorrow once the declarations come through.
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