Apart from Majestic Jude who runs in the Nursery that closes Newmarket’s card on Saturday William Haggas is focusing on York in support of his bid to be leading trainer at the track for a second year. He has 8 runners compared to his big rival Andrew Balding who sends just 3.
There is enough rain forecast at the track on Friday to indicate that the going will be more soft than good by Saturday and I have analyzed the races on this basis. What is a change from the usual Somerville Lodge scenario is that in 4 of the 5 races contested the draw has been kind to the main stable representatives.
First up is Yabher and Ancestor who contest the hugely competitive Class 2 1m2f+ handicap at 2.05.
From a wide draw Harry Davies on Ancestor will attempt to get across to the far rail and head the field to make the running which will be contested by the other pace setter Grey Cuban in stall 14. Ancestor at 9/1 is the shorter of the Haggas pair, but the draw greatly enhance the chances of Yabher in stall 4 and he should get a great slot behind the pace against the far rail.
He was the best horse in the race at Hamilton on his last run behind Evanesco but didn’t stay the extended 12f up the stiff Hamilton hill on soft ground. His two previous runs at York in the John Smiths Cup and at Goodwood in the Chesterfield Cup were write offs. In both races at the point the pace developed he was going as well as the eventual winners but was trapped behind a wall of horses and each time finished on the bridle without having had any sort of race.
At 12/1 with five places available he is very good 1pt ew bet with Ladbrokes and Corals – generally 10/1.
Any follower of flat racing in the UK this century will be mindful of Somerville Lodge 3yo’s running in handicaps after a win in low grade maidens and starting life in handicap company of a rating in the 70’s.
They invariably are heavily backed and Weffaag in the 10f Class 4 0-80 rated event at 2.40 will be no exception. The record of 3yo’s contesting handicaps at this track over the last 2 seasons is 10 from 30.
Weffaag is drawn in Stall 3 between the two guaranteed pace setters in the race drawn 2 and 4. If you look at the same data but only include Somerville Lodge horses drawn in stall 1-9 the record is 9-19 with only 5 out of the frame. That is a staggering statistic at a track which features the most competitive handicap races staged anywhere in the country.
On those statistics alone Weffaag has to be backed. The mark of 79 seems more than reasonable, the fact he won his maiden at Newcastle offers a further boost to his chances on Saturday.
Since 2021 there have been 10 Somerville Lodge based Newcastle maiden or novice stakes winners that have ran in handicap company. On their first outing at that level 6 won 2 were 2nd 1 was 3rd and the other suffered a setback and didn’t race for over 6 months.
It all adds up to Weffaag being a bet – on data he is an even money shot. I am hoping an opening price of 4/1 or bigger – and a 1pt ew bet
Haggas is again represented by two runners in the Sky Bet Sprint at 3.17 with Binhareer and Wiltshire.
Some Haggas followers will forgive Binhareer his no show in the Ayr Gold Cup especially as he has a great record at York including a win in this race last year that could not have been more impressive. Haggas has won two of the last 3 runnings of the race and Binhareer will be towards the front of the market.
The race has a habit of throwing up dual winners both Gulliver and Strike Red winning the contest twice in the last 7 years. Had Binhareer raced here and not run in the Ayr Gold Cup he would be 9/4 and heavily backed at that price. I doubt there has been a more impressive winner of the race than his victory in the race last year.
What cannot be ignored is his attitude at Ayr when put under pressure – hanging his head and taking an age to engage top gear before running on through tired horses inside the final furlong.
If you want to find excuses then maybe the ground was too heavy and probably, more likely, he resented being crowded amongst horses on the inside rail.
He has a very good draw in Stall 9 and there is only one question open for debate. Can you forgive him the poor run at Ayr? If the answer is yes then he is worthy of support at the opening price of 6/1.
My judgment is to back Binhareer win only but just to a 1pt stake – if his attitude to racing has deteriorated beyond recall then he will be unplaced along with the other stable representative in the race Wiltshire who seems to detest the turf. He looks to be working his way down the handicap despite considerable reluctance from the handicapper with a view to an AW campaign probably for new owners.
1pt win Binhareer 3.17 York
Iron Stone Lad 3.57 York has every chance in the 2yo Novice stakes event for which there is a field of just 6. There is every chance that he will be a strongly supported market leader. The Haggas record with 2yo’s at the October meeting is just 2 from 21. In all likelihood Sharaad on Friday will have been No 3 and with all five of his rivals having the potential to be useful on a busy afternoon of punting I will sit this one out.
in the 4.32 Divine Knight only got put 4lb for his confidence boosting win at Yarmouth. That allows him to race off 84 and with conditions and the draw in his favour he can be backed to double up and boost his price in the Autumn sales ring.
A win here will increase the potential of interest from the Australian buyers and increase his value by considerably more than the 15,000 first prize. He is drawn in stall 10 which is not a problem over this 14f trip and I expect Tom Marquand to get him well positioned just behind the pacesetters Cascade Hall and High Point . Most of the other runners will be held up and Divine Knight should be in the box sit. He was frustrating before Yarmouth but he has always been regarded as a horse that could progress to be 90+ handicapper
He was purchased very much with one eye on the Aussie market and on Saturday there is a chance he fulfill that expectation.
Another big field will again see extended place terms and I will be backing him to small stakes 0.5pt ew 4 places
The final runner at York on a great day is Kissmehoneyhoney who drops in trip after doing too much too soon from the front when we had a small interest on her at Goodwood. In a maximum field of 20 her draw in 12 will require her to be positioned wide.
It is the sort of race that if you ran it 10 times you would get 10 different winners and I will sit it out for betting purposes.
Away from York just one horse runs and that is Majestic Jude in the 7f Nursery that closes the Newmarket card at 4.50. He is one of four in the race chasing a hat trick. Along with the other three all could be potential stakes horses as 3yo’s.
However, I was not overly impressive with Majestic Jude when he won last time out at odds on. I suspect his mark of 91 may over stretch him and I will watch this race without a bet.
Saturdays have been generally frustrating for the yard in 2026 but maybe the rarity of getting good draws for the main fancies at York is a sign of good fortune.
I have taken something of a ‘Dave Nevison’ approach to the afternoon and I will back all four of the recommendations in a small ew Lucky 15. Which is the first time I will have done this in 2026.
I will update this post again as the markets develop.
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