The three meetings on Friday at Haydock, Redcar and Newcastle offer Haggas punters a win rate of 33% in the Autumn months over the past 3 years. On Friday 2 run at Haydock, 3 at Redcar and 1 at Newcastle.
The 8f handicap at Haydock has been divided but both divisions feature any number of mud lovers, which is not surprising given the forecast of heavy ground has been predicted since the entries were made.
Venetian Lion has been a good money spinner for us this year winning 3 on the trot before getting beat at Kempton in a way that is common at that track. Any large field race on the round track with a stop start pace, makes it incredibly difficult for a horse that is held up off the pace on the rails.
That is what happened to Venetian Lion when he was odds on at Kempton, but after pulling too hard off the slow pace he had no chance having been boxed in close to the rails eventually running on without any pressure from the saddle to finish 3rd.
I am certain that in hindsight he would have been declared to run at Nottingham the day after instead, when the ground unexpectedly had some cut. He would now be on a 4 timer.
One positive result of the Kempton run is that he remains on a very attractive mark of 81, the reason he was a 3pt bet. He bids to win this Haydock race for Somerville Lodge for the 3rd time in the last 5 years , previously winning with their only other entries in the contest.
The 10 opponents are all proven mud larks and he has yet to win on ground classified as heavy – on breeding he should excel on a testing surface. Price is key here we took 9/4 at Kempton and he was backed to odds on , which highlights his excellent handicap mark of 81. That was a mistake on my part as I normally would never back a horse at less than 3/1 at that course.
Minimum price rules also apply on Friday and I am going to bet win only due to the small question mark over the heavy ground.
I have mentioned that due to the extreme influence of the market on Somerville Lodge runners I am going to change my staking plan and given the circumstances of the races on Friday have decided to start this weekend.
The make up of the race means, ideally, I want at least 7/2 or bigger and will not be interested if 11/4 or less is the best price. The recommended stakes are based on a system of 10-100 pts. Just multiple up or down according to your staking levels.
Punting Strategy:
Venetian Lion 2.52 Haydock
Preferred Level 50pts to win 175+
Acceptable Level 40pts to win 120 ( Not Less) (10-100pt Scale)
(Under previous 1-3 pt system this would be a 1.5pt win Bet)
I said at the start of the week there would a focus on 2yo’s for the remaining weeks of the turf season. The first three this week all ran well. 2 were well backed winners and the 3rd ran OK at a big price in a Nursery. The 4th tab Nottingham ran green but showed a reasonable level of promise.
3 more head to post on Friday and will carry plenty of market support. At Redcar in the two divisions of the 1m novice at 1.20 and 1.52 Extragalactic and Land Afar will be at odds too short for betting purposes.
At Haydock the very disappointing Pure Majesty heads for the Nursery at 3.27. During the early part of the campaign it would have been considered incredulous that she would be seeking a first win in a Nursery off a mark of 67. The half sister to Sky Majesty has been very disappointing on her 3 runs albeit showing a touch of promise on her last run at Kempton.
The heavy ground will suit her and running in the ‘Bloom’ colors will be slashed in price the first sign that any money comes for her. My caution about investing is that she has shown signs of a poor attitude to racing, which is a trait that can be found in the family although usually not until later in their careers.
The market moves will be key – if the early price is 5/1 or bigger it will be cut. In the build up to the race, any significant drift, especially in the final minutes before the off would be significant, as would positive moves.
Punting Strategy:
Pure Majesty 15.27 Haydock
First Show. 10pts to win 50+ and if backed into 2/1 or less as stalls loaded further 20pts win.(10-100pts scale)
At Newcastle the inconsistent Guesstimate is the only runner on the card in the 10f handicap, at 4.43. A significant factor in this race is the booking of Daniel Tudhope. He is 5 from 10 for Somerville Lodge this season including two big race victory’s on Scoville and Al Aasy. His all time record for Haggas at the track in handicaps is 7-8 the only loser was his first ride for Somerville Lodge in the Northumberland Vase – tailed off on The Grand Visir in what turned out to be the geldings last run for the yard.
The fillies last run on the Tapeta at Southwell was among her best. Her last 5 runs have resulted in 3 races where she ran well but the other 2 were complete no shows.
The Tudhope Haggas Newcastle record sways me towards having an each way bet but only to small stakes at a minimum price of 5/1.
Punting Strategy:
Any show 5/1 or bigger 15pts ew (10.00- 100pt Scale)
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