The Champions Day at Ascot signaled the end of period 4 of our 2025/26 season. Although it looked possible the yard, could have a couple of winners on Saturday, I am sure given a choice that Almeraq would be the only success Haggas would have taken it all day long.
Opportunity had his chance impacted by being slowly away, which meant he had too much to do, he ran well beaten just over 3l in 5th. With a better start he would have been in the mix.
Division again ran well finishing 3rd behind Almeraq he will be back next year in search of a Group 1, Binhareer was outclassed.
Lilt ran a great race finishing 3rd in the Group 1 Mares and Fillies. Her value in the paddocks is secured with that Group 1 black type. That was only her 5th start and first over 12 furlongs she will be back in 2027 with excellent prospects of winning a Group 1.
More Thunder was the big disappointment of the afternoon. He will head to stud without a Group 1 to his name and his performance confirmed that at the top level he doesn’t see out a mile.
Our main bet on the afternoon Scoville ran ok to be 4th securing the place money, although the general feeling was that he under performed. Bullet Point set the race up perfectly acting as a pace maker but he pulled hard and couldn’t find the necessary change of pace to collect the prize for Somerville Lodge for the third time in 4 years.
That performance eptimised the overall disappointing campaign of the 4yo handicappers- summarized further below.
A reminder of how we break down each campaign based on how Haggas prepares his team of horses.
Period 1 for 2026/27 runs from Sunday 18/10/26 to Friday 2nd April 2027
Period 2 Saturday 3rd April 2027 ( Lincoln ) to Saturday 15th May 2027
Period 3 Sunday 16th May 2027 to Saturday 21st August 2027
Period 4 Sunday 22nd August to Saturday 16th October 2027
Every season the yard evolves and although the current crop of 2yo’s were slow to come to hand I expect the policy of targeting Class 1 events to be continued in 2027.
One of two significant changes of policy from Somerville Lodge in 2026 was a greater emphasis on targeting Stakes races. A policy that was largely successful. Even though the overall number of winners is significantly less.
Overview (2025 vs. 2026)
- 2025 Most Successful Volume Year): 736 races | 176 winners | 23.91% Overall Strike Rate
- 2026 (end of Oct): 650 races | 123 winners | 18.92% Overall Strike Rate
Transitioning from 2025 into 2026, with between 50-75 runners before the end of the year the runner volume will be roughly the same but a lesser overall winner output. However, chronological tracking highlights shifts in where successes were concentrated.
Class 1 Comparison
- Group 1 & Group 2 Rebound in 2026: In 2025, the yard had 0 wins in Group 1s and only a 15.4% strike rate in Group 2s (2/13). By contrast, 2026 showcased high-class peaks, pushing the 2026 Group 2 strike rate up to an elite 42.9% and securing 3 Group 1 wins.
- Listed and Group 3 Performance: Group 3 performance was stronger in 2025 (20.0% vs. 5.3% in 2026), while Listed races went the other way, with the yard improving from 18.6% in 2025 up to 30.8% in 2026.
Handicap Comparison
- Class 2 Handicaps (4yo+): This division experienced a major swing. In 2025, the yard excelled here with a 32.5% strike rate (13/40), which dropped down to 8.9% (7/79) in 2026.
- Class 3–6 Handicaps (3yo): This was the bedrock of the massive 2025 winner tally (47 wins at a 29.0% strike rate). In 2026, runner volume so far remains high (144 races), but the conversion rate dropped significantly to 12.5% (19 wins so far).
- Class 2 Handicaps (3yo) & Class 3–6 (4yo+): Both of these categories remained remarkably stable and consistent across both years, hovering closely around a 21% to 24% strike rate range.
- Novices & Maidens(3yo)+ 2yo All Race Types: 2025 and 2026 both in terms of volume and strike rate, remain very much the same and there is every reason to believe it will be matched in 2027.
Summary
2026 saw a more selective campaign with slightly fewer total runners, but it successfully regained top-tier quality, marked by major Group 1 and Group 2 alongside strong Listed and juvenile consistency. However the well quoted initiative to keep more older handicappers didn’t work.
From a punting prospective I would score the season C+. It started with a bang and after Royal Ascot we were on course for an A rating. Unfortunately since mid June we have been treading water succumbing to the belief that the increased number of 4yo’s kept in training at Somerville Lodge would result in an increased strike rate and profits.
It backfired badly with hardly any 4yo + handicap winners from after Royal Ascot right through to the Ebor meeting at York. Fortunately we spotted the reality and kept bets to a bare minimum but not without sustaining big enough losses on the likes of Eternal Force, High Degree, Binhareer, Yabher and Realign who we followed over the cliff.
The hot summer and fast ground offers some form of valid excuse however no one at Somerville Lodge would have predicted the significant drop in 4yo+ handicap winners at Class 2 level. The win rate of just 7 winners from 79 runners compared to 13 from 40 in 2025 and 8 from 43 in 2024. However the 2023 return of 6 from 62 offers a reason, quite simply, many of the horses were badly handicapped.
This season only 2 Class 2 handicap’s were won by a horse rated 96 or higher Wiltshire on the AW in April and Opportunity at Royal Ascot. In 2025 the total was 6 but they included Santorini Star, Elmonjed, and More Thunder, who progressed to win at Group 2 level this season.
The 2025 outstanding record of 3yo’s winning Class3,4,5,6 handicaps was probably behind the reason for keeping significantly more in training as 4yo’s. This years dramatic drop in winners in this category with the likes of Silver Lake, Hoseki and Venetian Lion the exception rather than the rule. I very much doubt the 2026 policy of keeping more 3yo’s in training will be repeated in 2027.
As we enter period 1 which will see, as usual, very few recommended bets I will produce a weekly profit and loss report on a 10-100 pts scale.
I have not done this before as the swing in prices can be significant from the OS (opening show) through to BOG and SP and the restrictions placed on many accounts. Although this is not a tipping service, I think the need for transparency in today’s social media world that allows mass distortion and exaggerated false claims of success is now essential.
I will report my betting returns based on the opening price Ante-Post or the day before the race, the price at the BOG time and the S.P.
With no runners on Sunday – our period 1 kicks off on Monday with 4 horses featured across 3 meetings.
Tom Marquand heads to Bath to partner by far the most likely winner Al Qayed in the 11 Novice stakes at 3.17. Of the 10 rivals only the Andrew Balding trained Chapron has shown any form that can come close to Al Qayed’s runner up performance over this course and distance behind Divide and Conquer.
Balding’s record at the track with 2yo’s isn’t as good as I thought it might be and Callum Hutchinson rides here with Oisin Murphy riding for his new retainer with the Crisfords at Wolverhampton on Meydaan a horse he will ride in the upcoming winter season in Dubai.
The rest both on breeding and from the evidence of their few appearances all seem to be projects being prepared for 3yo campaigns.
It’s interesting Haggas has chosen to comeback to Bath as the son of Baaeed didn’t handle the track especially well late last month. Divide and Conquer was 1-4 on that afternoon but there is a case to be made that if he had not been unbalanced and forced wide Al Qayed would have caused an upset.
His opening price with Bet 365 is 1/1 which given the make up of the race is likely to shorten but if it drifted to around 7/4 that would raise alarm bells. This will not be my first bet of the Period – even though I fully expect him to win.
Cieren Fallon heads North to Pontefract to ride Under Arrest in the 1 mile Nursery at 2.23. The 2yo made some improvement on his handicap debut over 9f at Goodwood but was beaten 6L and looked as though a step up in trip rather than back down to a mile would suit.
He is small and carrying top weight of 9’9′ on holding ground with a stiff uphill finish may not be ideal. Aside from Diplomata’s double so far the Somerville Lodge record in Nursery’s this season is 0-10 and Under Arrest who is due to be sold next week, will struggle to improve that statistic.
At Southwell Callum Shepperd has two rides for Somerville Lodge which will double his previous total for the yard.
National Pride in the 1m Novice stakes at 5.30 is the second Haggas runner along with Al Qayed at Bath to stay in Novice company even though already given a handicap rating. That is not a negative as he has a 40% strike rate with 2yo’s running under these circumstances
The Southwell maidens look like being especially tough this Autumn with so many well bred 2yo’s needing experience after being held back by the fast conditions. This is no exception and as National Pride is one of the yard 2yo’s that has regressed since his debut he is easy to overlook for betting purposes.
Finally Flagbearer in the 8.00 comes across the returning one time leading Oaks fancy I’m The One who will be long odds on to win on her return from injury.
No Bets on the first Day of Period 1 but plenty of interest.
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