It was great to be on a typical Haggas 3yo handicap gamble landed on Wednesday by Gaspacho. The filly opened at 11/2 was cut to 7/2 and the market support continued right up to the off winning at 5/2.
As we have advised on many occasions unlike previous years the strike rate in 2026 in these events has been a long way below what would normally be expected. Silver Lake, Thunder Call and Infraad were successful but the likes of Crown Office, Brighton Beach and Princling, and others failed more than once to land 3yo handicaps when well supported.
The remainder of the week with the odd exception is all about giving 2yo’s valuable racecourse experience. On Wednesday of the 5 2yo’s that ran only Howluckyarewe, ran with promise, the others were well beaten.
I track all the 2yo’s that run in October because many turn out to be the star 3yo’s. It is significant that the 2yo’s that only have one or two runs in their juvenile season and finish within 5 lengths, of the winner, are those that turn out to be the best 3yo’s. Whereas those well beaten or have more than 2 races tend to make far less progress at 3.
The list of 2025 horses that progressed from that profile are Infraad, Lilt, Zennor Storm, My Ophelia, Needle Match, Princling, Eklleem, Masked Warrior, Fractional, Morshdi,
In 2024 the list was Yabher, The Kings Falcon, Mahra’s Love, Opportunity, Alobayyah, Almeraq.
So far this October, the 2026 qualifiers are Sharadd, Faithful, Born This Way, Procyon, Carbine Country, Top Scholar, Sea La Rosa, Miss Deeds, Howweluckyweare and Divine Rhythm who runs on Thursday. The list could diminish, if any of the above have a third run this year and there are likely to be a few more added until the end of the month on Saturday.
On Thursday Divine Rhythm already on the list runs in the 1.12 Bath has a good chance of winning on his second outing and The Can Can Man has his second race in the 12.42.
On Friday six of the 8 runners are 2yo’s and I will cover them in Thursdays note.
The Can Can Man needs to show more than on his debut but Divine Rhythm is of interest on Thursday and I am surprised he is 4/1 which offers the chance of an each way bet to nothing. The Haggas all time strike rate at Bath with 2yo’s 1,2,3 in the market is a high 7 from 16 and the family of Divine Rhythm excelled on soft ground. He was 9/4 favourite at Yarmouth and he ran in a style typical of a Haggas newcomer, green early but staying on through the final furlong.
He will be suited to the extra furlong, is well drawn in 2 and Harry Davies has an excellent record at Bath. The 4/1 is too big to ignore. The 2yo’s from Somerville Lodge are running well after a promising first outing and he is worth an interest.
15pts win 15pts place Divine Rhythm 13.12 Bath Thursday 4/1 Overnight Price
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