After a break on Tuesday Somerville Lodge is busy again on Wednesday with five runners at Nottingham and one at Kempton.
Mondays runners ran very much as expected. Our only bet Yimmna ran a great race beaten by a horse that showed improvement, the pair finishing well clear of the rest. I would expect Yimmna to be out again quickly as she will get a rise in the handicap for her run. We got a small profit – she improved as we anticipated and the bet was the right call.
Two of the four 2yo’s Won but the heavily backed Iron Stone Lad was very disappointing. The frustrating 3yo handicappers, Yimmna apart, didn’t finish in the first three. Magic Box ran poorly, Wefaagg missed the break which cost him a place and Encore quit as soon as the pressure was applied.
Extremely Zain, from what turned out to be a good draw in the Group 3 at Chantilly had the perfect set up and was disappointing. He finished 4th but looked like it was one race too many for the season.
Flagbearer showed improved to win the Kempton novice – his first start on the AW bought about considerable improvement albeit in a weak race. The other 3yo maidens Rowlf was well beaten at Redcar as was Tempestra at Southwell
Onto Nottingham on Wednesday Haggas runs 4 2yo’s in the two contests for juveniles In the 1.46 Class 3 Novice Noble Mariner the choice of Cieren Fallon is joined by Bantry Bay with Harry Davies on board. In the 2yo maiden at 2.46 Haggas introduces a couple of fillies Playhouse the choice of Cieren Fallon and Lady Bb ridden by Harry Davies. Both are expected to be better for the run. The shortest opening price of the 5 2yo’s is Noble Mariner at 7/1. A win for any of them will be a surprise bonus.
This leaves Gaspacho in the 14f Class 4 handicap at Nottingham and she offers the yard a reasonable chance of success. We got a nice ew price of 11/1 when she was 3rd at York although well beaten. That proved she stayed the trip on testing ground which was likely on her breeding, and the reason for the wager, but she couldn’t handle the step up to Class 2.
The drop back down to a Class 4 on Wednesday gives her a realistic chance to get a win on only her 3rd outing of the season. I rate that chance better than the initial 11/2 and with 4 places on offer that was a price worth taking.
The fact that she has attracted strong support on both her runs and that she was pitched into a Class 2 from a mark of 80 is a big indication that she is considered to be well handicapped. It is rare for Haggas to drop a filly from a Class 2 to a Class4 and she is strongly fancied. The 11/’2 didn’t last long and she is 7/2 across the board -that price is still ok although I will still back her ew given that 4 places are on offer.
Two of our last three bets have been second both bumping into an improved rival but our ew policy means we have shown a profit. Even though a price of 7/2 will cause a small loss if she is only placed it is the time of year for caution.
Since the win of Almeraq at Ascot 4 of the 5 winners have been lightly raced 2yo’s the other a 3yo Novice having only his 4th run. The other horses to run that have been well fancied including More Thunder, Scoville, Dubai Honour and Extremely Zain have looked like the long season has caught up with. Crown of Oaks who ran his best race of the season was only having his 4th outing ,as did Frances Ethel who was also just on her 4th start.
Yimmna’s improved run on only her 5th start suggests that it is the Haggas horses that are still fresh that are the ones to follow and Gaspacho fits that bill.
Recommended Bet 25pts win 25pts place 1-4 places Gaspacho 3.16 Nottingham
At Kempton another 2yo Howluckyweare reappears in the 5.45 ridden by Darragh Keenan. She is a half sister to Hamish bred by the Haggas family and looks a long term project, who will be better as a 3yo.
A quick note on Lake Forest who has drawn stall 2 in the Breeders Cup Turf Mile on Saturday. Which could be good news for our 20/1 Ante-Post bets. However it will depend on him breaking on terms and being able to take advantage of the inside track position. He is generally on offer at 10/1 with Notable Speech drawn in stall 8 cut into evens.
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