More Haggas Quality on Show Friday
On Wednesday Klassleader 6/1-15/8 followed Maltese Cross 5/1-9/4 to provide us with a second consecutive successful Ante-Post gamble.
With bookmakers adding ‘Haggas tax’ to ridicuclous levels on the day of the races, it’s been a plan we have focused on this year. The narrow defeats of Binhareer (6/1 advised) returned 11/4 and Kinswoman (9/4 advised) returned 10/11 emphasizing the need to get the value.
We didn’t back Elmonjed, he was the second lowest rated in the race and was very short at 8/1 having been 16/1 early doors. That was due to the low draw bias and of course the inevitable ‘Haggas tax’. It’s great that Somerville Lodge horses are winning these big races, which didn’t really happen last year.
On Wednesday all the winners were race fit apart from Klassleader and significantly the two narrowly defeated runners Kinswoman and Binhareer were making their seasonal debuts
Although racegoers are having to cope with cold April showers. extending into the middle of May current forecasts suggest that ground conditions will be perfect over the weekend. Genuine ‘Good’ ground is expected at all of the fixtures starting at Newbury, Newmarket and York on Friday.
The Somerville Lodge team are represented by a big squad of 9 well bred potentially quality racehorses most of whom are climbing the ladder aiming for high handicap or group race level. In every case they are making their seasonal debuts . Hence the cautious approach for betting purposes.
The nine include two horses Lilt and Extremely Zain who are considered possible Group 1 horses this year.
I will deal with all nine – starting with 4 at York ridden by Tom Marquand:
Lilt 14.20 York
It’s shame there are only 7 runners in the Listed Michael Seely Stakes because the opening show for Lilt of 10/1 is very similar to the opening show for the filly in the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket. When she was withdrawn 1 hour before the race she was 9/4 !
Now the declarations have been made, whilst this looks tougher than the Pretty Polly that price is very generous and I cannot let her go off unbacked.I will monitor the race closely and look to have a saver on one of the more favoured runners at the head of the market on race day. There is no doubt that Lilt is considered by everyone at Somerville Lodge as a Group Class filly. Synchronicity is the early market leader and although she was impressive in beating the Haggas filly and subsequent winner Sea of The Clouds – Lilt is rated a better prospect than Sea of the Clouds.
Recommended Bet 0.5pt win Lilt 10/1 Bet 365
Divine Knight 14.55 York
Haggas has taken charge of the 5yo for the Yorkshire based owner Aiden Ryan who has enjoyed a good level of success this year with Adrian Keatley.
The 5yo son of Night of Thunder gelding didn’t see the racecourse until last July when causing an upset beating the Haggas trained First Principle he has only had 4 runs including when running with credit in the Cambridgeshire.
The mark of 86 looks fair – the horse has had several entries and it looks significant that he chooses to head York for his stable debut.
The record of Haggas when taking over older horses from other yards is excellent, More Thunder, Wiltshire, Term of Endearment, Sam Hawkins and Cavier Heights immediately spring to mind.
Divine Knight is 14/1 ( 5 places ) and that’s too big too ignore.
Recommended Bet 0.5pt EW Divine Knight 14/1 ( 5 places )
Desert Treasure 16.55 York
Owned by the very lucky owners Jon and Julie Aisbett ( Godwinson, Johan ) there is a possibility that Double Treasure is very well handicapped off a mark of 83 and has been given the Timeform big P rating which suggests significant improvement is expected. Drawn in 6 that looks fine after the Day 1 results. These Class 2 and 3 3yo only handicaps come with a wealth warning at this time of year at odds of around 5/1 I am going to sit this race out for betting purposes.
No Recommended Bet
Weheedd 17.15 York
The 3yo maiden was a big eye-catcher when second behind the John Gosden trained Organise at Yarmouth on debut. The betting suggests a similar result will follow on Friday, as he will be second favourite behind the Gosden trained Port Cullis who was an impressive winner of the Wood Ditton Stakes and will be odds on to follow up. I wasn’t convinced about the value of that win and the initial form of the race looks weak.
It would be no surprise to see Portcullis drift and there be significant support for Weheedd but I will stick to the No Bet in Novices and Maiden rule
No Recommended Bet
There are 3 at Newbury ridden by Cieren Fallon :
High Degree 14.40 Newbury
High Degree is in the Haggas camp of 4 and 5yo’s racing over 8-10f Haggas rated in the high 80’s – low 90’s that are expected to win high value races at Grade 1 tracks this season. He is stepped up to 10f on Friday having performed with great credit over a 1m in Class 2 handicaps in the Autumn of 2025.
Over a 1m he was prominently ridden but is likely to restrained over the 10f on Friday in a race that looks likely to be ran at a strong pace. Similar types such as , Eternal Force, Sea Force, Bullet Point and First Principle have been better for their first race and whilst the horses are now much fitter a selective approach is still required for betting purposes.
No Bet Recommended
Extremely Zain 15.53 Newbury
The son of Hello Zoumain was the final winner of the 2025 season for Somerville Lodge winning a 6f maiden at Newcastle by over 6 lengths.
The win received plenty of attention which focused on the style of victory and a stride pattern that indicated he would be ideally suited to a mile, the speed he showed suggesting that he could be top drawer.
He was given time to develop over the spring and he starts his season in this Class 4 Novice which has attracted a large field of 16. He is the only winner in the field and has to give 7lb to the remaining runners. He has been given an entry in the Group 1 St James Palace stakes but will be short and the No Bet Novice and Maiden rule will still apply.
No Bet Recommended
Indhaar 16.25 Newbury
The unraced Ghaiyyath colt makes his debut in a race won by Somerville Lodge in 2023. It is often a race that produces plenty of good quality horses and is a race to watch for the future.
No Bet Recommended
Finally 2 at Newmarket:
Bayaann 13.57
Follows the path of Extremely Zain by trying to give weight away to a field of Novices in the Class 4 8f novice stakes at 13.57. Once again there are several very well bred newcomers lining up and at short odds, our No Bet Novice and Maiden stakes rule is applied.
No Bet Recommended
Magic Box 16.53
The tough 3yo filly has been ready for a run for several weeks and starts off in a small field Class 3 handicap from bottom weight of 9’1 from a mark of 76. Even in a small field that draw in stall 1 is not ideal and it is the same with Bayaann in the Novice race. Somerville Lodge runners seem ill-feted to have that stall with Sky Majesty and Needle Match suffering the same misfortune on Guineas day.
No Bet Recommended
Chrysalis Consortium 
Leave a comment