July 2026 Patience needed.

With just over a week to go the Haggas yard is likely to set a record low for the month of July…

The basis for a sole focus on Somerville Lodge for my betting purposes is because of the transparency that William Haggas creates for punters based on his long established methodology. This is largely due to the fact that most of his stable comprises horses owned by their breeders. This lends itself to giving more time for horses to develop and progress through the ranks as they strengthen and can reach their potential.

As a result clear trends and patterns emerge that create betting opportunities and also reliable indicators when not to bet.

In terms of strike rate, July 2026 will go down on record as one of the poorest at Somerville Lodge. The numbers are self explanatory:

July strike rate last 6 years 2026 – 2021 (UK and Ire)

July 2026 – 10.2% 6 winners from 52 Runners ( as at 23/7/26)

July 2025 – 29.7% 29 winners from 101 Runners

July 2024 -15.6% 15 winners from 97 runners

July 2023 -23.2% 23 winners from 99 runners

July 2022 – 27.2% 24 winners from 88 runners

July 2021 – 18.7% 18 winners from 89 runners

The same trends used for backing horses also provides the evidence required when to pull the plug and avoid building up long losing sequences. We won’t win in July but neither have we sustained heavy losses and the profits made in the early part of the season largely remain even though June also produced a topsy turvy set of results.

There were a couple of similarly bad runs in the summer of 2024 but the Summer of 26 will go down as the most inconsistent period and unpredictable set of results this century.

The racing calendar for July has seen nearly every fixture ran on Good To Firm ground and in some cases Firm.

Whilst a fair proportion of the poor runs in July by fancied Somerville Lodge horses can be attributed to fast conditions, a significant number of others have to be simply put down to unexpected well below par performances. This also was the case in July 2024 when the yard was not firing but got back on track in August with 26 winners from 100 runners. August unlike July doesn’t produce varied strike rates it has never dropped below 25% since the covid year of 2020.

It all adds up to a high level of patience being required until after Glorious Goodwood. Over the past 5 years that meeting has produced 11 winners from 58 runners which is good given the level of racing and there will be bets at the meeting. The best of which should be Lake Forest on Tuesday in the Lennox Stakes. With fast ground assured we have already backed him at 3/1 and with the race looking likely to cut up he may well go off at around 11/8.

Once he is confirmed as a runner on Sunday, I will also back him Ante Post for the Group 1 City of York stakes later in August for which he is currently 6/1 but likely to be cut significantly if he wins as expected on Tuesday.

Back to Thursday, Friday and Saturday this week and that patient policy will still be in place on Thursday with only two declared, likely to be just one as Caraway in the Yarmouth 19.24 also runs on Wednesday. The other Hardy’s Hero in the 18.14 will be a short priced market leader and I want to see him together with Caraway on Wednesday run to their mark as the first two runners this week ran well below expectations.

Thursday No bet recommended.