A couple of weeks ago we slightly ignored the Somerville Lodge historic trends across the Super Saturday weekend which suggested that possibly 5 winners from the 25 runners was the maximum expected. It turned out only 2 were recorded which thankfully we found from 8 bets advised.
We didn’t make the mistake last weekend when the trends again suggested a low strike rate and we kept the powder dry advising a No Bet Saturday and the yard sent out just 1 winner of a maiden at 13/8 from 10 runners. Although nearly every runner performed well.
This weekend the yard has chosen to bypass the 2 day York fixture and focus on the King George meeting at Ascot. It is only the record in handicaps that catches the attention from a betting perspective.
In the last 3 years Haggas has sent out three winners from 8 runners in handicaps over the 2 days, with all 3 heavily backed.
You have to go back to 2017 to find a winner for the yard at the meeting in Group or listed company and they have been zero winners this century in Novice and Maiden fixtures over the 2 days. There has been some success in nursery handicaps ( no longer on the card ) with 2 winners in 2024 and 2017.
This year Sweetwonderfulyou in the 14.20 Novice on Friday, and Perfect Strike in the 1.10 Saturday are nice 2yo’s but are highly unlikely to be the first novice stakes winners for the yard at this meeting.
That leaves just 2 potential bets. Desert Treasure in the 5f sprint handicap on Friday 17.12 at and Extremely Zain in the International Handicap on Saturday.
Unfortunately Desert Treasure has not finished off her races this season and as she is not very big there has to be a doubt that she has trained on and cannot be considered as a bet on her current form.
Extremely Zain is a worthy favorite as he puts his unbeaten record and huge reputation on the line in the Class 2 feature handicap on Saturday at 2.55. As was the case at York on his first handicap appearance the bookmakers are convinced he is a Group horse and even off his revised mark of 101 he is very short at around 7/4. The race has cut up – with just 17 runners his draw in stall 8 is not so bad as had the maximum field of 24 taken part.
It is likely that Extremely Zain is going to be one of those horses that we miss for betting purposes but with the strike rate for July now only around 9% my hope is that Extremely Zain and a couple of others that run on Thursday and Friday give the yard a boost ready for Goodwood next week.
At the other meetings, on Friday and Saturday, Lorca’s Waltz runs in the 7.30 at Sandown on Friday. The Beverley maiden winner starts life in handicap company from a mark of 79 which looks harsh based on the balance of his form.
The 2yo Diplomata runs for the second time in the 2.00 Thirsk. The booking of Rossa Ryan looks significant but she comes up against the very highly regarded Karl Burke 2yo filly Diamond New Bay which rules out a potential bet.
Two other 2yo debutants are Not My Type in the 5.47 at Sandown on Friday and Matins in the 6.45 Salisbury on Saturday. As always both should be watched with the future in mind.
The only other horse declared to run is Al Maslool who continues to attempt to win for the first time at Chester on Saturday. This 10 race maiden is yet to show he has enough ability to win from a mark of 66.
Patience is definitely the key word again this weekend and although its frustrating to watch horses as good as Extremely Zain win unbacked given the current record of the yard it makes no sense to invest at 7/4.
No Bets Friday, Saturday or Sunday
Chrysalis Consortium 
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