June and July have proven to be generally well below the high standards set by Somerville Lodge. Thankfully, resulting in only minor losses in our profit and loss account due to a massive cut back in the number of bets placed, and a flying start to the year in April and May.
Paradoxically, 2026 will go on record as the stables best Royal Ascot meeting yet, highlighted by the incredulous performance of Almeraq in the Group 1 Jubilee on fast ground that was always said to be against him.
The stellar performances of Maltese Cross will last long in the memory and had the fast ground extended to Epsom in the first week of June, he may well have gone one better in the Derby as a prelude to his nerve-wracking win in the Grand Prix de Paris.
The yard’s form closely resembles the summer of 2024, which featured two distinct spells where the strike rate dipped below normal expectations. This year, that lull has been exacerbated by a prolonged dry spell, which has reduced runner numbers and hampered performance levels.
Going into the final week of July, excluding Maltese Cross, the yard has had zero luck, it can be argued it was used up in the Grand Prix de Paris ! As is often the case in Racing when your lucks out, misfortune has a habit of lingering like a bad smell and that has been the case in the past week.
What was considered the ‘best bet of the week’ Lady Rosalind in the 2yo maiden at Windsor only had to reproduce her Ripon numbers to complete the double. She was clearly on edge in the paddock and ran no sort of race to be beaten 6L, with the fast ground also a factor in her defeat. To rub salt into the wounds her full sister the Karl Burke trained Soul Love won a listed race at Naas on Wednesday.
Lady Rosalind turned out to be our only recommended bet of the week, which is just as well because the three runners on Wednesday and Thursday were sent off at 11/10,10/11 and 10/11 and all finished 2nd in races they should have won.
After Maltese Cross won on the 14th July over the next 10 days, the yard had 19 runners with just one winner Guesstimate at 13/8 in a Chester maiden. Of the remaining 18, 8 finished runner up with 3 finishing third, and 1 fourth – the 6 out of the frame, were Lady Rosalind, Earth Shot, and Darzah performances that were largely attributed to the fast ground, Desert Treasure who looks as though she hasn’t trained on and the 2yo’s Regalian and Diplomata who both ran very green. The number of horses running to form is still around 60%.
That losing run was broken by the 2yo Not My Type at Sandown who won on debut under an excellent Cieren Fallon ride despite still being very green. She is related to One Master and the win secured will be invaluable for her future career in the paddocks but there is every chance she can improve to add black type to her page. Lorna’s Waltz couldn’t give the yard a double, as expected a mark of 79 was beyond the 3yo.
On Saturday Al Maslool broke his maiden tag at Chester winning by a nose at 5/2 but the main horse of interest Extremely Zain drifted from 7/4 to 3/1 in the big 7f International handicap at Ascot and was disappointing finishing 4th – he needs a mile.
The 3yo Matins was an impressive 7L winner on debut at Salisbury in a 4 runner maiden – the double on the day despite the defeat of Extremely Zain was exactly what was needed, although it would have been nice if Tom Marquand had ridden a winner for Haggas, he is now 0-13 since Maltese Cross and just 2-28 for the yard this month.
Tom Marquand is a jockey whose harshest critic is himself and the slice of luck he got when Maltese Cross found a gap in the final 100yds at Longchamp appears to have been more of a dent than a boost to his confidence. He needs a couple of straight forward successes where everything goes to plan.
August and September are traditionally the best months to follow Haggas-trained horses, with strike rates rarely dropping below 25%. The immediate question is: does that strong form extend to the Glorious Goodwood meeting, which spans the turn of July and August?
The five-year statistics provide compelling evidence when looking at Haggas runners by grade and race type:
- Class 1 Races (Listed + Group 1, 2, 3): 18 runners — 8 winners (+6.8 pts profit at SP)
- Class 2 Handicaps: 24 runners — 2 winners (-12.5 pts loss)
- Novices and Maidens (2yo+): 7 runners — 0 winners (-7.00 pts loss)
There is only one logical conclusion: only back Haggas horses at Glorious Goodwood in Class 1 races.
The record becomes even stronger if you restrict selections to horses priced within the top four market leaders. This filters out five losers and increases the strike rate to 61% (8 winners from 13 runners).
The 2026 team is spearheaded by Lake Forest in Tuesday’s Group 2 Lennox Stakes. The gelding looks, by some distance, the most likely Somerville Lodge winner at this year’s meeting. His 3 main rivals Never So Brave, Paborus and Zaveteri were all not declared and in a field of just 8 runners any price above Evens is good value he could easily go off 4/6. Although officially a Group 2 race it has turned out to be in effect an average Group 3 contest at best.
He is also entered in the Sussex Stakes and if he wins as expected on Tuesday it is not inconceivable that he is turned out again on Wednesday.
Santorini Star in the Lillie Langtry on Saturday would be next best.
On Day 1 Yabher is something of surprise declaration for the Chesterfield Cup that opens the meeting at 1.50pm. His no show run in the John Smiths Cup is hard to forgive and although he has good form around the track, he is now rated considerably higher on a mark of 102 .
He has to give a chunk of weight to the well handicapped, potential improvers Al Aali, Noble Horizon and Spoken Truth. Although this looks easier than the York race we backed him to win, we have paid dearly this season for giving horses second chances and I am happy to let him run unbacked.
In the fillies handicap at 5.20 the booking of Saffie Osborne on Proposal takes the eye. However she has looked very quirky ( the filly not the jockey) and despite her low weight cannot be trusted for betting purposes.
Recommended Bet ( Already Advised ) 3pt win Lake Forest 3.00 Goodwood Tuesday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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