It maybe still early to state that the Somerville Lodge plan to retain additional older horses in training this year has backfired but the numbers and win strike rate do not at present read especially well.
From 119 runners aged 4 or older there have been just 20 winners (Strike Rate 16.8%). In June and July only there have been 53 runners with 6 winners, 3 of which Almeraq, Opportunity and Alobayyah at Royal Ascot which in many ways justifies the new approach. In July only Al Aasy at 4/9 has won from 18 starters.
By direct comparison ivy the end of July 2024 there were 42 less runners but the 77 that went to post achieved 18 successes and a strike rate of just under 18%.
Moving forward until the end of the season in 2024 the older horses contributed 15 winners from 56 runners at a strike rate of 26.8%. The number of runners this year could well reach 100 and the first to run on Monday is probably the least exposed of them all.
Sharp Move is closely related to the 110 rated 2m plus stayer Nate the Great and when he bolted up in a 10f maiden at Newcastle last November, he looked certain to be a contender for high quality staying handicaps. He has had an interrupted preparation including when forced to miss his planned seasonal debut earlier this month. He reappears in the 12f Southwell maiden on Monday with a welter weight of 10’8. William Haggas seems very keen to run him in a novice event with a penalty as these race conditions match those of his original intended race at Windsor. This looks more competitive with the Gosdens throwing a couple of darts, and the leading yards of Balding, Burke, Owen, Beckett and Varian fielding runners.
The market will clearly be a guide to the outcome , my feeling is that Sharp Move on his third run is aiming at a handicap mark for his main targets in the late Summer and Autumn.
No Bet Recommended
From a betting perspective it is now time when to throw off the shackels and I am going to take a swipe at Venetian Lion another Haggas dark horse first time in a handicap off a mark of 65. That rating enables the 3yo gelding to race at class 6 level. He is impeccably well bred being related to Forest of Dean who excelled on the AW, Crown of Oaks and State Occasion. His dam Forest Crown has a great record at stud and this son of St Marks Basilica has every chance of proving a lot better than this level.
He had 3 quick runs in the spring, where he showed little but got him this mark of 65. His half brother Crown of Oaks had shown more potential but started off from a mark of 79 and is now rated 104. There are several other dark horses in the line up also on handicap debut but nothing with the pedigree of Venetian Lion. He should be an EW price with some firms offering 4 places
0.5pt ew Venetian Lion 16.00 Southwell Monday
Tom Marquand goes to Southwell rather than Ripon with Cieren Fallon suspended, Harry Davies heads to the ‘Garden Racecourse’ for two rides on Fractional and Masked Warrior with Pat Dobbs taking the ride on the days other runner Another Abbot at Windsor.
Fractional would have been better named Fractious as she has refused to settle in any of her 5 outings including when beaten at 1/3 on at Chepstow last time out.
Her owner breeders will be keen to get any win out of the 3yo daughter of Frankel who is related to First Instinct and Variable. However, the unraced Karl Burke trained Prosperity who is related to Native Warrior will not have to be any great shakes to win on her debut.
No Bet recommended
Masked Warrior appeared to run well from what looked a high mark of 89 at Chester. The race was ran at a stop start pace and my feeling is that he may have been flattered by his finishing position.
He was originally entered in the July sales but was withdrawn after the Chester run.
I am going to stick with my original assessment that 89 is a stiff mark and was based on the handicapper over reacting to the 31/2L win at Kempton. The form of that race has yet to work out with the future form 0-12. Both Noelan Star and Command the Stars look to have more scope and I am more than happy to watch without betting.
No Bet Recommended.
The enigmatic Another Abbot ran better at Ascot last time out and the experienced Pat Dobbs looks a good jockey booking. The 4yo has yet to show he can cope with racing at Class 3 level and needs a further drop in the weights in order to get back to winning ways.The 6f sprint at 19.28 will see him clash with ex stablemate Maelstrom now trained by Stuart Williams and the back to form Amazonian Dream likely to be all the rage with Oisin Murphy jocked up.
No Bet Recommended.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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