The incredulous victory of Almeraq at 28/1 in a fast ground Jubilee at Ascot and the gap that opened like the Red Sea in the final 100yds at Longchamp for Maltese Cross has provided Somerville Lodge with two incredible Group 1 victories this season.
It is not beyond the realms of possibility that a 3rd equally miraculous Group 1 victory could follow on Wednesday in the Sussex Stakes. Here is the scenario:
“After comfortably winning the Group 2 Lennox Stakes Lake Forest turns out 24 hours later and is produced with a storming run in the final furlong to claim the Group 1 Sussex Stakes.”
Unlikely, but the chance is far better than the 40/1 on offer Monday afternoon.
I am writing this before the Lennox on Tuesday and if Lake Forest doesn’t win as expected or is withdrawn on Wednesday whatever the outcome, the rest of this article will be largely pointless.
However, now we can get Non Runner no bet I think he is worth a small interest at the 40/1 available. If he does win well on Tuesday he could go off at around 8/1 on Wednesday. Don’t forget he was backed from 12/1 to 6/1 for the Jubilee.
The market is dominated by Bow Echo and Gstaad which is understandable given there dominance of the 3yo generation at 8F this season. However, there is no evidence to suggest they are better or worse than the older milers and Wednesday will be the first acid test. Opera Bello is the principal 4yo in the market after pulling too hard but still only narrowly going down in the Queen Anne behind Ten Bob Tony and More Thunder.
There are a few judges in Somerville Lodge that believe, after his gelding operation, that Lake Forest is the best horse in the yard at 7f and 8f. If that is the case he has to win the Lennox Stakes without complication. The choice for connections overnight will then be based on whether a tilt at the Sussex Stakes will hinder his chances in the Group 1 City of York Stakes in just over 3 weeks time, for which he is currently the 6/1 market leader. Clearly, how he eats up and trots out on Wednesday will be crucial.
From a betting point of view though given the high level of confidence behind him in the Lennox it makes sense to back him each-way at 40/1 in the Sussex and also take the 6/1 ante post for the City of York. The dry conditions look likely to extend well into August and he should still get the fast ground he needs.
Sean Graham Racing manager to Tony Bloom and Ian McAleavy confirmed their intentions on Monday morning. He said:
“If tomorrow goes well, we’re going to run him in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday as well. If he runs a stinker in the Lennox he obviously won’t run, but if he runs to form we’re going to do something leftfield and run him in the Sussex.
“I don’t think a horse has ever done that before, but he thrives on his racing and the key to getting the best out of him against top-class opposition is quick ground.”
The chance of Lake Forest will be enhanced if the 3yo form has been overrated. Quite frankly, excuse the pun, I find it absurd that some sectors of the media are comparing Bow Echo to the great Frankel. To my eyes, the St James Palace Stakes was there for the taking and although it is valid to take the view that Bow Echo did well to win given the way the race was ran, in my opinion it was a case of nothing being good enough to take advantage of the big opportunity given to them by a below par performance by the 2,000 Guineas winner. The race sectionals highlighted how slow the final 2f were and it could be that both Bow Echo and Gstaad are going backwards.
The best 4yo + form on offer is arguably the Group 1 3rd place in the Queen Anne by Opera Bello. That is also questionable given he pulled hard through the first half of the race and was beaten by Ten Bob Tony the 50/1 ‘social runner’, who is next best in the market on Wednesday at 14/1. Nearly every horse that exceeded expectations by handling fast ground at the Royal meeting has failed to cope with the same type of surface on their next run and I don’t see Ten Bob Tony being any different.
There was a more than just a sense of irony by a few comments that had he ran in the Queen Anne, Lake Forest would have won and if he is anywhere near his best he will finish ahead of Ed Walkers gelding.
If the 3yo’s are overrated Lake Forest is a huge price at 40/1 even allowing for the fact that it will be his 2nd run in 24 hours. As is the case on Tuesday he has a great draw in stall 5 that will enable him to stalk the leaders, and as is the case in the Lennox on Tuesday he will have a strong pace to aim at.
Recommended Bets 0.25pt EW 40/1 Lake Forest – Sussex Stakes Weds – 1pt win Lake Forest – City of York Stakes 6/1
The first runner at Goodwood from Somerville Lodge on Wednesday is the highly rated Infraad who runs in a handicap for the second time in the 12f 3yo only handicap at 13.50
Infraad works at home like a horse that is potentially better than a handicapper but he looked very green and immature when leaving fortunes in the bookmakers satchels at Chester when he was sent off sat 8/13. He was undoubtedly unlucky at Chester and would have learned from the experience. However, Goodwood is also challenging and he may not be quite ready to produce his home work the unique undulations on a course, where bad luck stories are two a penny.
In addition he lines up alongside two equally promising colts in the Joseph O’Brien trained Cannes and Andrew Balding’s Hateen. The pace over staying trips is crucial and although there are only 9 runners he is drawn in stall 3 and could well get a troubled trip in the home straight. He could outclass this field but as we pointed out earlier this week the Haggas record outside of Group/Listed races at this meeting is not great and on balance he is a No Bet Recommendation.
Nothing else at Goodwood, on Wednesday but the yard sends a couple to Redcar and a very promising 2yo to Yarmouth.
At Redcar Vanilla Skies has been found a 3rd consecutive soft fillies novice stakes race. Harry Burns has the unenviable task of trying to get the daughter of Pinatubo to settle, she will be a short price and is not a betting proposition.
No Bet Recommended.
Wild Dahlia runs for the first time this season also ridden by Harry Burns in Apprentice handicap at 3.50 This is an interesting choice of race to start off her season. If she wins she will escape a penalty.
The form of her runs as a 2yo is mixed she looked a filly that would need trips of 10f plus as a 3yo – and the fact that she has been kept to 1m on her return suggests she will be better for the run.
No Bet Recommended
The 5.55 fillies 2yo novice at Leicester is likely to go under the radar with only 5 runners, but 3 of them including the Haggas trained Pure Majesty are very highly regarded.
The Jane Chapple Hymn filly Fairy Glen and the Crisfords Coat of Red showed much more on debut than Pure Majesty and are both strongly fancied.
Pure Majesty did everything wrong on debut at Newmarket and was given a very easy race and it is no surprise to see her out again quickly as Haggas will want to quickly erase that experience from her memory.
She has an entry in the Lowther but that initial run suggested she is not ready for that level. Jack Doughty has only his 2nd ride for the yard and it will be big chance for him to get himself on the Somerville Lodge list of go to jockey’s if he can get Pure Majesty settled and learn from the outing.
No Bet Recommended
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