Lake Forest won, but not as expected on Tuesday in the Lennox Stakes. Even though there appeared to be a conspiracy formed by Keane, Mcdonald, Lee and Shoemark to ride their horses not to best effect by setting slow fractionals, Lake Forest and Cieren Fallon were still far to good and although idling inside the final 50yds won with plenty in hand.
The multitude of pundits who tipped against Lake Forest also claimed that Rogue Diplomat who was second was the best horse in the race.!!!
We will see very different tactics on Wednesday in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes over a mile.
Ballydoyle is running 1 possibly 2 pacemakers so there will be no question that the early fractionals will be anything other than fast . That is clearly designed to suit Gstaad but will also aid Bow Echo and Opera Bello. Although that may not prevent the Goldophin colt from pulling his race away in the first 4f.
Fallon will be able to ride with cover a tactic he rightly dismissed on Tuesday because of the slow pace. The race is then simple to assess, if Bow Echo and Gstaad are as good as their 3yo careers so far have suggested they will get first run on Lake Forest and he probably won’t peg them back. However, if as is distinctly possible based on their performances in the St James Palace Stakes, they maybe overrated.
In that scenario I can envisage Fallon holding onto Lake Forest until after the cutaway and wait for a run against the far rail or a seek a gap between the leaders inside the final furlong. It is the exact ride he pulled off to win the 3.5 million dollar first prize in the Golden Eagle at Rosehill in Australia.
The 40/1 available on Monday was cut to 22/1 before the Lennox and is now 14/1. I still think that is reasonable value as I can only see the 2 3yo’s beating him.
Recommended Bet Already Advised 0.25pt ew Lake Forest 40/1 plus 0.5pt ew 14/1 ( 3 places ) 4.10 Goodwood Wednesday
Chrysalis Consortium 
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