With fast ground continuing until next week their remains a cautionary approach to betting this weekend with the exception of the already advised More Thunder who has been confirmed as our next 3pt Bet at Deauville on Sunday in the Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois. All the main protagonists have been declared including Thesecretadvisor which should ensure a good pace for him to aim at – a slow pace was my one main concern.
The money has come for More Thunder backed from 11/2 into 10/3 and he is vying for favoritism with Precise – I suspect given the confidence behind him he may well be sent off as the market leader.
Somerville Lodge are certainly giving it a good shot at Newbury on Saturday with the high quality quintet of Dubai Honour, Kinswoman, Scoville, Extremely Zain and Bayaann all heading to Berkshire.
Herein lies the problem! Since 01 July Somerville Lodge has sent out 21 runners on Saturdays to contest Class 1,2,3 races with 0 winners. 8 have been sent off as the market leader and a further 7 have been returned 2nd or 3rd best in the market. 11 of the 21 have finished unplaced.
Over the same period in 2025 there had been 7 winners from 22 runners. Given that the reason for the decline can largely be attributed to the firm ground , which prevails on Saturday it makes no sense to back any of the runners where there is a small question mark about their ability to perform at their best under the current conditions.
The conditions certainly rule out Dubai Honour who has rarely been asked to compete on fast ground and has always been quoted as needing some cut to be at his best. The 2/1 early price is not generous.
Kinswoman has won on Good to Firm but that form is not within 10lb of her performances on Good or Good to Soft. She is as short as 10/3 which I expect to drift to around 7/1. Look out for a big gamble on River Spey.
Extremely Zain, although his fast ground form seems on a par with his runs on better ground that is still someway short of what will be needed to win a Hungerford. The early 11/2 was very short and he is already out to 8/1 I expect the drift to continue. Bayaann seemed all at sea on fast ground at Royal Ascot. No prices yet but he will be short enough probably at around 11/4 in the finale at 4.55
Which leaves Scoville who I cannot let go unbacked now he drops back to 7f on ground that he loves. He has also been dropped 2lb by the handicapper and is a decent price.
His runs at Royal Ascot and Goodwood over 8f can both be marked up as he only weakened in the final 100yds in both contests having set scorching early fractions. On both occasions he has shown signs that he can now be slightly restrained and I expect Marquand to dictate from the front without having to use up too much petrol as was the case from his wide draw at Goodwood. The yard won the race in 2025 with similar tactics used on Lou Lou’s Gift.
The race has cut up to just 8 runners but the 7/1 on offer initially was huge – now into 11/2 that is still good and he is worth a bet.
Recommended Bet 1.0 pt ew Scoville 14.35 Newbury 11/2 Paddy Power and Sky Bet
Finally, on Saturday in the Class 3 Novice at 2.43 a very promising 2yo colt Al Sayeh by Baaeed out of a Frankel mare makes his debut at Newmarket. He is a horse with a lot of potential and his debut run should be monitored with the future in mind.
Thankfully this is the final day of Racing on the July course this season which has been utterly miserable for the Somerville Lodge team, aside from a double on the day when the races where moved to start in the morning, all the remaining 20 runners have been soundly beaten many by wide margins.
Its all systems go for York once the declarations are out on Monday we can look forward with more confidence than for some time with 3 or 4 horses strongly fancied to win on the Knavesmire.
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