Due to the possibility of soft ground, there has to be a level of doubt that Maltese Cross will run in the Arc this season. If he does and I do believe it will be his main Autumn target the 10/1 currently on offer is generous.
Daryz will be the market leader but the true value of his defeat of Minnie Hauk in the race last year looks very questionable based on how the pair have ran this year.
Diamond Necklace is currently a doubtful runner which leaves the likes of the mares Kalpana and Estrange and the York International winner Item as the other main challengers. Will Juddmonte want Kalpana and Item to take each other on?
The other possible Ballydoyle contender Constitution River behaved like a horse at York who with a lesser rating would be under consideration for a gelding operation. I would be surprised if we have not already seen the best of him.
What makes me so confident about Maltese Cross is that mentally and physically he looks the most straight forward 3yo staying colt there has been since Golden Horn.
The Gosden colt Won the Epsom Derby followed by the Eclipse before losing his unbeaten record in the York International before winning the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc in a stellar season.
Maltese Cross has a lot to do to be compared to Golden Horn but his rate of improvement and racing style suggests he is going to be top of the list of 12f plus 3yo colts by the end of the season. There is a very strong case to say that had he contested the International 35 minutes later he would have beaten Item and Almaqam even over the 10f trip.
Both Ombudsman and Constitution River failed to turn up and from the evidence of the ‘Voltigeur’ Maltese Cross has a cruising speed that is a match of Item and a better turn of foot.
Going back to the form of Daryz his win in the Arc of 2025 was a big surprise he was sent off at 16/1 and his defeat of Minnie Hauk by a neck now looks shallow. It can argued that the form is held up by the subsequent victories of Giavelletto, Sosie and Kalpana but it is largely interlinked and although Kalpana deserves credit for her King George win she defeated a well below par Calandagan at Ascot who has subsequently been given a long period of rest to try and get him back to form.
Her win at York in the Yorkshire Oaks saw her odds cut for the Arc but she had a very hard race and was fortunate to beat the 109 rated Sparan Nua by a short head.
Kalpana is a talented ultra consistent horse who has been able to pick up major prizes when other more talented horses have under performed. Her defeat by Giavelletto in the Hardwicke off a rating of 119 has been inflated following her subsequent defeat of Calandagan in the King George.
I cannot believe as a 5yo mare she has improved 6lb in a couple of months and the Hardwicke form and the Yorkshire Oaks win suggests that she remains worthy of a maximum rating of 119.
The other potential candidates at the head of the market included Giavellotto who has been confirmed as a non runner and if it were very soft ground Bay City Roller (RPR 134) would be a contender. At the moment Daryz on 138 has the highest RPR followed by Minnie Hauk, Kalpana, Constitution River and Item on (RPR137), Diamond Necklace (RPR136) unproven at trip. Next is Maltese Cross (RPR 132).
Timeform rate Maltese Cross 126+ just 2lb below Daryz 128 and Item 128p.
Few would doubt that at he has the scope and potential to get to 130+ if the rest of his season goes to plan. If I am right and both the King George and Juddmonte International form is over rated he has an outstanding chance of winning a first Arc de Triomphe for Somerville Lodge.
Connections are confident that he will be a better 4yo and given his ability to handle fast ground and his strong constitution it is realistic to assume that he will be campaigned globally over the next 13 months. That leads me to believe the extra time to the Arc after York is better for his long term plans than Doncaster will be.
I have had a 1pt bet at 10/1 and will go in again if and when his prospects of running are confirmed.
York Eye Catchers
It was a relief to get back to being able to expect consistent levels of performance from the team with most of the runners at York ( including Saber Strike ) running well.
It started off in great style by Maltese Cross and was continued by God Given Talent, running for the first time for Somerville Lodge in the Nursery on Wednesday. In a race full of drama his run from the back of the field to finish a fast finishing 4th was not overlooked.
He was held up last at a track where that is rarely a good plan and was full of running when stuck behind a wall of horses eventually finding a way through to be beaten less than a length. God Given Talent who looked well suited by cut in the ground could well be aimed at a similar Class 2 nursery at the Ayr Gold Cup meeting.
The ease in the ground was a big factor, thankfully not to soft for most of the team but in the case of Eternal Force and Klassleader not soft enough.
In the Kevin Sinfield Handicap on Thursday Marquand rode Bullet Point who ran admirably to finish runner up without really suggesting he is back to his best. Dylan Brown McMonagle rode Eternal Force who had blinkers fitted for the first time which didn’t seem to have any effect. He ran ok and will probably get dropped a further 1 or 2lb for his effort. The key to him is genuine Soft or Heavy ground and if he can get those conditions he may still have his day in the sun!!
Rhapsody confirmed she stayed the 12f when runner up at 9/1 in the Galtres Stakes but the Good to Soft ground blunted her speed and she was well beaten by Prizeland. There are plenty of opportunities for her to add a Listed win to her page, especially on good or faster ground
In the closing 7f Fillies handicap Albaydaa was hampered as she was making her run but weakened inside the final furlong to finish a well beaten 8th by over 6L. The drop to this Class 2 was thought to be a stepping stone towards her getting black type in listed company – that is looking difficult now but the quest will continue.
In Fridays opening Class 2 handicap Marquand chose wrong, understandably, in riding the market leader Zennor Storm, who failed to build on his promising Goodwood run finishing well beaten in 8th. I didn’t think he handled the softer ground and also he looked a horse well suited to hold up tactics. I wouldn’t be rushing to back him to gain compensation.
The yards other runner Eklleem on his handicap debut ran a race that screamed big handicap winner and it would be no surprise to see him targeted at the Cambridgeshire for which he is quoted at around 20/1.
I think he will need another run and a win to give him sufficient experience for that test and with just 5 weeks to the race its going to be tight and he will have needed to come out of Thursdays race very well -he looks potentially up to the level required.
This looked a good race and his 2nd place finish to the experienced Blue Courvoisier and with softer ground no issue he is a horse to follow. it would be no surprise to see him turned out in similar company at the Doncaster St Leger meeting or take on board one of the Premier handicaps in Ireland, although both would leave only a 2 week window before Newmarket.
In the final race on Friday Silver Lake landed some hefty wagers 11/10 from 3/1 when getting up in the final strides to win the 10f fillies handicap. She overcome serious trouble in running and her victory by a head can be marked up. Hopefully the handicapper limits the rise to 5lb in which case she will surely be targeted at the handicap at the St Leger meeting, in which Cape Flora completed the double in 2025. She can then progress onto listed company.
She has been a great filly for us – as we have backed her on all 3 wins and will do so again if she turns up at Doncaster.
On Day 4 the drying ground was a big concern for our Ante-Post bet on Klassleader, whilst at the same time probably not drying out quickly enough for Lake Forest. Both scenarios proved correct. The day started with a double ‘throw of the dice’ with Saber Strike and King of Earth.
Saber Strike must have incredible talent to show the speed he does at home and still have the stamina to finish second in a 9f listed contest. However, I doubt he ran well enough to avoid the gelding operation which looks the last resort now if he is to fulfill his potential. Unfortunately, that route will probably be the next port of call for King of Earth, who was fired up in the preliminaries and in the race and finished well beaten
It was a joy to watch Infraad a well fancied Somervile Lodge runner deliver on a big Saturday card. Apart from Almeraq the shock winner of the Jubilee at Royal Ascot, the last winner of a Saturday contest at Class 2 or higher was Thunder Call at York on June 13th.
Infraad showed an abundance of stamina to win without being challenged on Saturday. I suspect he will be allowed to take his chance in the St Leger and then be targeted at Group races over 2m plus as a 4yo following in the footsteps of Santorini Star this season.
Lake Forest ran a great race in the City of York although even on faster ground i doubt he would have beaten Notable Speech. With softer conditions likely now in the UK, Lake Forest will surely be heading back down under in chase of more Aussie dollars.
In the Ebor Opportunity under top weight ran an outstanding race to be beaten in a 3 way photo. This performance opens the door for a tilt at the Irish St Leger for which he will be a leading fancy if he is supplemented as he is not currently entered.
He is currently in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot on Champions Day over 2m for which Wathnan Racing also have Gregory entered. With that race likely to a target for Scandinavia, more so than the Irish St Leger, supplementing Opportunity for the Irish classic maybe a good option.
As Haggas told everyone before the contest started the ground was not soft enough for Klassleader but he ran well enough to suggest a big staying handicap win under his right conditions is more than achievable – don’t write him off.
Finally, although I maybe about to go over the cliff with this horse I thought Realign was ridden with another day in mind in the 6f handicap won by Sondad.
He will get dropped again by the handicapper and on a flat track (Haydock) on any ground that is not extreme in a 0-95 sprint I will go to the well one more time.
Overall a great meeting and it sets up the rest of the season nicely.
REFA 2026
Chrysalis Consortium 
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