Haggas Mystery Monday

Somerville Lodge has three runners on Monday and nothing on Tuesday. The three on Monday present a real problem for punters and bookmakers pricing them up.

First up is Encore who has her first run for William Haggas having began life with Ed Walker as a 2yo. She ran perfectly well on her debut at Kempton finishing 5th beaten just over 4L by the now 91 rated Rose of Honour which would give her every chance in what looks a low grade contest. Walker runs Sunday Girl who has also been off for over a year after an eye-catching debut run as a 2yo finishing 3rd in a Newbury Novice stakes, although the form hasn’t worked out well.

On the evidence of her first run and her breeding on the dams side Encore looks likely to be better over further, but she must have being showing something to Haggas to stay in training after just one run approaching the end of her 4yo season. Encore is 5/2 Sunday Girl 5/4

Bet ? No.

The next runner is the 2yo twice raced filly Regalism who handled the Brighton slopes but possibly didn’t handle the firm ground last time out. She will improve – the yards 2yo’s, with another 14 days of work, now improving for a race as is usually the case after their initial outings.

However, this is a valuable 30,000 Class 2 Novice and there are sure to be fillies in the line up that will either improve for initial races or are useful debutants.

On a day when all the 3 runners have pedigrees that are complex – she is by Blue Point out of a Dalakhani mare who has only produced winners at 2m+. It’s wise that we stick with the most likely scenario that this is her 3rd run and will be better when she goes into handicaps. The first early price of 9/2 probably reflects her chances.

Bets ? No

The biggest mystery of all is Star Obsession in the 6f Class 6 handicap at 19.18. She was given 3 quick outings on the AW ate the start of the over 8f attracting a level of support on each occasion. By Frankel out of a Sharmadal mare, it looked certain that the best would be not be seen of her until stepped up to trips of 10f or further. Yet here she is 6 months later on handicap debut over 6f at Windsor.

All that matters for her future is to get a win out of her. I expect she has become very difficult to settle on the gallops and given the way she pulled her way through her latest contest the only option is to hope she has enough speed at this low level to last home.

The market will provide the clues as to how realistic that will be – but even though it is such a strange move for a horse trained by Haggas I don’t think this is another More Thunder.

I will watch the race with interest and should she start the race traveling well on the bridle she will probably win and will be worth a bet in running.

If that were to be the case I expect the money will be down before the off. More likely is she will pull her way to the front and be caught even in Class 6 company. She is priced up at 11/4 she could go off 11/10 or 11/1 !!!

Bet ? No