At the start of the current season William Haggas described his strategic change of keeping more older horses in training as making him ‘more like a National Hunt trainer’.
Six months into the season it is clear that ,as yet, the policy has not gone to plan.
Since Royal Ascot when Opportunity and Alobayyah won the Duke of Edinburgh and the Kensington Palace there have been 31 older horses attempt to win Class 2 handicaps without a single winner. 14 were sent off 1 or 2 in the market. Include Handicaps in every class and the win record in June, July and August increases by just 3 and currently stands at 5-50. with over 50% (27) sent off 1,2 in the market. A direct comparison with 2025 is even more startling – from only 32 runners there were 11 winners !!.
The season had started well for the older horses with early wins for Wiltshire who landed the AW Sprint final (20/1-6/1) Power Fizz and First Principle both landing Class 2 and 3 AW handicaps in the opening two weeks of the season.
The older staying horses were all running with distinction. Klassleader, Opportunity, Valiancy, Orionis and Yabher each contributing to an overall more than respectable 25% win strike rate in March, April and May – 10-40 in handicaps contested by horses aged 4 and over. The 2025 comparable was 7-22.
The hot weather and firm ground can largely be sited as the reason for the alarming decline after Royal Ascot. From a punting point of view does it mean that following this run of defeats there are a number of well handicapped horses that may offer betting opportunities on softer ground racing under cooler temperatures?
The following horses from the yard look well handicapped and ready to win at Class 2 and or 3 level this Autumn.
Given the better ground we dipped our toe in the water of backing the older horses at York placing small each way wagers on Eternal Force 14/1 and Realign 16/1. It didn’t pay off – they ran ok and both have now been dropped in the handicap to a mark of 94, which makes them eligible for Class 3 races.
The 3yo Silver Lake has gone up 6lb for her York win to 92 – last season Cape Flora who completed the York, Doncaster Fillies Handicap double went up 9lb for York which suggests the chance of Silver Lake repeating the feat is achievable.
Klassleader was dropped a pound for his Ebor run. He didn’t look to have a hard race and if the expected soft conditions prevail at Haydock on the 5th September he can follow, The Reverend and Post Impressionist and give Somerville Lodge there 3rd Old Borough Cup in 4 years.
Another 3yo Eklleem was only pushed up 4lb for his 2nd placed finish behind Blue Courvoisier at York to a mark of 91. He is the shortest price of the Haggas entries for the Cambridgeshire at 20/1 but I doubt he will make the cut and I also doubt Haggas will want to try the route taken last year with Crown of Oaks. The Class 2 Mile handicap at Doncaster on Leger day and then the Balmoral at Ascot looking a more productive route for a horse that has plenty of speed.
Scoville remains on a mark of 95 following his controversial run at Newbury, my understanding is he may be off to Australia and that could have been his last race on these shores.
Probably the best handicapped horse in the yard, once he gets cut in the ground, is Divine Knight off a mark of 81. A staying handicap at Ayr could well be his target.
Ante Post Bets
At York the 3 winners were all 3yo’s, each recorded their 3rd win of the campaign the first this season from the yard to achieve this.
With a lot of rain forecast for the North West over the next 10 days I expect Haggas to as usual target the Sprint Cup meeting at Haydock. His record at the track in handicaps in September and October over the past 5 years with horses aged 4 and over is 2 from 7 with 4 runners up add in the 3yo’s it is 11 winners from 31 with only 3 horses finishing out of the first 4. Last season it was 5 from 9. The 2yo record over the 5 year period is 5-12.
From a betting point of view it therefore makes sense for us to largely wait for Haydock the week after next. I have gambled on the weather forecast being correct and taken the 9/1 on offer for Almeraq in the Sprint Cup at Haydock on the 5th September.
His July Cup run can be ignored and the fact he was able to win the Jubilee on fast ground was remarkable. He is potentially, a 7lb -10lb better horse on soft ground and given those conditions I cannot see how on the day he will go off more than 7/2.
1pt ew Almeraq 9/1-8/1 Sprint Cup Haydock 5th September 2026
This weekend. (30 Entries Saturday and Sunday)
A lot is going to depend on how much of the forecast rain arrives in the South of England.
At Goodwood High Degree one of the 5 older horses to win a handicap in the past 3 months has been introduced at a very short 5/2 for the 12f Class 2 handicap. He is unproven at the trip.
Crown of Oaks is 6/1 for the 10f Class2 at Sandown. He may get the soft ground he needs for the first time this season.
Al Aasy is the 10/3 market leader to topple Constitution Hill in the listed August Stakes at Windsor.
Frances Ethel has several entries following her very promising 4th in the Shergar Cup on her seasonal debut. She is owned by the highly influential Team Valor and Haggas will be very keen to get a win from her. At 8/1 she is not without a chance in the same Goodwood race that High Degree heads the market.
It is currently uncertain about the ground conditions this weekend and an unlike Almeraq and Maltese Cross none of those prices are attractive enough to warrant an early poke Ante Post.
Almeraq bids for 2nd Group 1 of season in Haydock Sprint Cup
Leave a Reply