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On Friday at Thirsk we highlighted the danger of following supposed gambles on Somerville Lodge trained horses, typified by Scoville who was cut from 7/1 to 2/1 but was reported to be in need of the race beforehand and ran accordingly. There are two further cases already this week. In the Fillies maiden at Newmarket…

The start of the year judged by the bare results and low strike rate suggests all is not going to plan at Somerville Lodge. The topsy turvy performance levels continued over the weekend. There were three very encouraging runs from Bintsaleh, Waheedd and especially Arabian Force at Longchamp (unlucky not to win) but the horse…

Followers will know the key word at Somerville Lodge is patience – with horses in training at the yard given ample time to fulfill potential. The year on year success we achieve following the master trainer is based on folllowing clear patterns that have been developed over 30 years plus, but also being able to…

One of the big advantages of micro following one big yard is the knowledge we have gained to spot big market moves that simply make no sense, given the information available before the race. One obvious example was Scoville at Thirsk on Friday. Highly talented but refusing to settle both in preliminaries and in his…

When William Haggas declares a horse to contest a Musselburgh handicap its never just there for the run and whatever way you look at the stats in handicaps with horses sent off 1,2,3 in the market his strike rate at the track is just under 50%. This decade it is 4 from 9. A look…

With good ground forecast and the Turf season creeping into top gear, whilst most eyes will be on Aintree there are likely to be some quality 3yo’s on show at Yarmouth this Saturday. William Haggas tends to save his most promising maidens for Newmarket and Newbury next week, but whatever Charlie Appleby sends to this…

The return of Scoville in the Class 3 Conditions Stakes 4.25 at Thirsk this Friday provides the newly gelded four-year-old with an opportunity to get a career back on track. It is a career that once looked destined for Group 1 status, following a dominant 14-length Novice Stakes victory at Newmarket on his second start last July. The sheer…

The 3 runners sent out from Somerville Lodge on Bank Holiday Monday typified why we will not advise bets on William Haggas Novices and Maidens this season. The first two at Kempton were ‘apparently’ supported into favoritism, only to run in a manner that is common for inexperienced horses from the yard. The filly Creative…

Somerville Lodge runs three fancied in the markets on Bank Holiday Monday. All 3 will feature near the front of the betting. My expectation is that all will run well and there is every chance that 1 or more will win. However the stats on past performances with similar types sent by the yard to…

The next few days will be relatively quiet as the focus shifts toward the Craven and Greenham meetings in 12 days’ time. There are no declared runners for this Saturday or Sunday. Throughout April, our attention will center on the record of Haggas-trained favourites in 3yo-only Class 2, 3, and 4 handicaps. This has proven…